Experimental System plays thread

I know what your thinking... not someone making one of these again.....

But since my normal capping skills have been horrid, losing 5 in a row, I'm gonna take a break from my normal POD thread and write ups. One part of this system is not really possible for me to back test...

Like most systems that seem to just come and go, I'm not expecting this to be a godsend or even work out...but I put work into it and I want to give it shot here and put it to practice. Only tries to find "against the spread" plays. For now I'm sure these should do better than what I have been picking the last couple weeks anyways!

It tries to find when teams get value on their spreads basically. Has extra filter though to filter out unreliable teams (well no promises on this part to be perfect...)


Tonight's Plays ytd 0-0-0 0u

2 units Sixers -6

1 unit Mavericks -6


then see what happens...

Damn...Warriors was also a play last night, but I must've overlooked it the first time. But I didn't post it so it won't show up here. Was a favorite heavy night last night, and even the Spurs just find a way to cover, they just keep finding a way...

For this card there probably won't be any fully qualified plays, but a big lean on the Clippers. The Knicks could end up as a lean, but I'm guessing no, but will post it later if it is.

I will just record plays as regular 1 unit plays each and not do that varying unit bs I started. A qualified play is a play. I will post and record the leans from here on too, just for the heck of it.

Tonight's Plays ytd 2-0-0

Probably None

Leans ytd 0-0-0

Clippers -3

BOL ab for tomorrow!!

BOL back manu


Again these are just leans, but I do like this Knicks one, it was close to being a play.

I thought the Knicks might have a bigger line than -3. Knicks are a pretty strong lean here, more than the Clips. I'll put a confidence rating out of 10 on all leans and plays. I have it set so if it's at least 8 it's a play. Besides these leans, the next closest lean is Pistons +5 with a confidence rating of 2. But I will set 4 as the lean requirement or else I think I'd have too many on bigger cards. Maybe I'll raise it to 5 eventually.

Tonight's Plays ytd 2-0-0
None

Leans ytd 0-0-0
Knicks -3 6/10 confidence
Clippers -3 4/10 confidence

The leans didn't fair too bad, the Knicks pushed and Clippers covered.

Here is what I got so far for wednesday. I changed the confidence rating requirement down to 7 for a play, and will just keep it at 4 for the leans, which are mostly just for show. Was on the fence where to put that but since the Clips did end up covering with their 4 rating, heck I'll just keep it at 4


Tonight's Plays ytd 2-0-0
Pacers -8 7/10 confidence
Clippers -8.5 10/10 confidence
Minnesota -2.5 9.5/10 confidence

Leans ytd 1-0-1
Thunder -13.5 5.5/10 confidence


Should be adding one or two more after the rest of the lines come out.

BOL tomorrow ! 

Does your system only pick favorites? Jk. Keep it up!

I see a lot of value in the MIN line.

GL

It will mostly likely end up picking out favorites, one of the reasons is a filter I have on it that tries to eliminate backing teams that are performing way too badly to rely on covering. Such as backing up a team like the Bobcats of last year, when they went 23-43 last season against the spread. Teams that just find a way to not cover... I hate it when some systems that I have seen some people make in the past, would just ignore the reality of just how super crappy some teams are playing lately and would still pick them on occasions, maybe even multiple times. I'm trying my best to avoid this with this system, no promises though.

As long as the system is selective enough, even if it always picked favorites, this shouldn't be too big a deal though, right? For instance, it didn't have a play on any of the 5 games yesterday, just a couple of leans. I want to make a winning system hopefully, rather than worry about making a super versatile system.

At least Minnesota is close enough to a pk, so not too big a favorite there. I mean, people don't makes teasers or buy points on -2.5 spreads to make them +2.5 and consider that smart value tweaking right? At least, I hope not, unless they are overly afraid of a fixed game possibly or something...

It is "experimental" here for a reason, and there is still some work to be done. I just did some more back testing on it the last few hours and added another filter to help prevent it from getting too carried away with overvaluing and undervaluing of certain teams.

One way I'd like to explain what I'm trying to do with this system, is try to force it to find those plays that are almost seem too easy, but they just are. Like those games that you'd probably end up guessing right or play on them instead of passing on them for being too suspicious of them, more often, if someone forced you to choose picks while having a gun to your head. Guess I'll call it the "Gun to the head" ATS system

Though I'm a bit concerned on this Pacers pick, since it IS only a system, it's not going to measure the emotional impact of what the Cavs are going through right now with the Lakers win (though this can work both ways) and ESPECIALLY and more likely the fact that Irving just came back. We'll just see what happens here I guess...

Here's the final card, yes another fairly big spread to cover with the Grizzlies added, at least I have a dog lean though


Tonight's Plays ytd 2-0-0
Pacers -8 7/10 confidence
Clippers -8.5 10/10 confidence
Minnesota -2.5 9.5/10 confidence
Memphis -6 10/10 confidence

Leans ytd 1-0-1
Thunder -13.5 5.5/10 confidence
 Raptors +7.5 4/10 confidence

Got lucky enough on the T-wolves to be able to cover with -2.5. Pacers was a nice hit, but the Clippers and especially the Grizzlies failed big time. I think I know why plays against teams that are desperate to a certain point, like ones that are on big enough losing skids like the Suns and Bobcats can be risky, regardless of spread. Also that teams on big winning steaks can start to lose that killer instinct to cover big enough spreads...

So I will work more on this system to at least avoid those type of plays. Generally want to filter out more risks to narrow down the volume to good quality stuff, I hope... Still will churn out more plays as I qualify, and surprisingly with some concern, I have 2 tonight on this tiny 3 game card.

Even if this Blazers pick covers, I'm afraid of the fact my system ended up qualifying a play that's going against the Spurs of all teams! I'm thinking I will have to change more things...

But here are the plays anyway:


Tonight's Plays ytd 4-2-0
Knicks -5.5
Blazers +7


Leans ytd 2-1-1
None


(removing confidence rating, would need to be tweaked and I don't think it should really be taken seriously, as in the end, the qualified plays are plays, no less or no more. Might re-add it back down the road, but not really too important right now. Want winners, first and foremost, right?)

Well, the Blazers pick turned out to be a gem! Did a tad bit more tweaking, and could add a play on the Pistons if the line is good enough. Still very small sample size, but I will say it's a good sign leans so far have been kinda iffy, while the plays have been a bit more than decent enough so far. But again, small sample.

Good sign I think that this is getting some dog plays. Though this play on Memphis scares me a bit, but then again, I said the same thing with the Pacers play against the Cavs...

Tonight's Plays ytd 6-2-0
Orlando +4.5
Grizzlies +1.5
Maybe Pistons....


Leans ytd 2-1-1
Lakers -5.5
T-Wolves -4

Where are the confidence :)

*currently undergoing maintenance*  

I may add it back again... I guess everyone likes to see numbers or geeky stats with these systems to go along with plays, I kind of understand that's why I had it there at first. So ok... I'll try to add it back again but I want to make changes to it to be more meaningful than it is at the current moment.

None of your picks have won? what happened bro?

I'm not stopping the system, it's just I'm not gonna post them with a  confidence rating along side them, for the current moment. Scroll up a bit to see the plays if your curious.

Adding the Detroit play. Feeling a bit ****ed up in the head after just reading the news from Connecticut.....

Wouldn't think my system could manage to qualify such a lowly team as the Pistons. But I guess it thinks the Nets are just that bad. I suppose Lopez being back should make me consider to cancel this play or make it lean instead, but I've decided I'm still gonna let it go unleashed.

For the curious, the two somewhat closest other plays to being leans are the Suns +1.5 and Cavs +3. But still not enough to lean on em.

Good to see there are some other solid cappers that I see here on covers that really like the Magic and Grizzlies tonight, so that's a plus!


Tonight's Plays ytd 6-2-0
Orlando +4.5
Grizzlies +1.5
Pistons +8 Indeed!


Leans ytd 2-1-1
Lakers -5.5
T-Wolves -4


And good luck to everyone else on their plays

I took a long look at DET tonight too.  GL!

Damn the Grizzlies just won't love this system back, will they?

The other 2 plays covered though, and heck even both leans managed to as well. So all in all, it still did good work last night.

I will add back that confidence rating, even though I don't want it to seem that certain plays have a higher chance than others. As this rating only comes from half of the system, and I don't know how to accurately combine it with the other. This whole thing is a work in progress still, hence the topic.

Changed it by lowering the requirement, so confidence of at least 5 goes as a play, and at least 3 goes as a lean (if less than 5). Had to make this change too because of tweaks and additions I made, or else plays would be too rare, and also would probably only be confident enough to play on elite teams only. Again, until I make more changes, don't take this rating too seriously besides it making it qualify leans and plays.


Only 2 plays, but a lot of leans suddenly:

Tonight's Plays ytd 8-3-0
Clippers -5 5.5/10 confidence
Bulls -5.5 6.75/10 confidence


Leans ytd 4-1-1
Hawks -7 3.25/10 confidence
Cavs +10.5 3.75/10 confidence
Heat -15 3/10 confidence
Spurs -9.5 3.5/10 confidence
Grizzlies +2 3.75/10 confidence


And good luck to everyone else on their plays

I'm not taking CHI, I think D.Williams will have a big game.

I do like the LAC (probably a 4/5 unit play for me)

Good luck and keep it up!

GL

Belated thanks to sevillon and kulprit

Seems you were right about the Bulls, and looking back at some plays...some just shouldn't be risked to be trusted to play on. Bulls at 2-10 ATS at home this year, why risk that? Atlanta 3-7 ATS at home, shouldn't risk that either especially to cover a big line that they don't normally get or have covered. Think I need to add some more orthodox trends to this system to help polish and finalize the system, but I think the time spent testing without them has done good to show that "maybe" something is brewing here. Again this is still a small sample size, but 17-6-1 on combined leans and plays is at least pretty decent

So I will open up this system to allow leans to play now, but filter out plays with certain glaring ATS trends like that, that probably aren't safe. I won't explain exactly how this experimental system works, but it doesn't use most of those regular capping stats and trends, it's more sorta "pattern oriented" to find good values, that's all I'll say......

And those will be the new ( and hopefully less likely to end up covering the spread ) kind of leans. ATS trends that aren't safe will be the only thing that will cause a lean out of anything that otherwise qualifies. Though I will probably make exceptions to big dog plays, cause I think this system can be good at finding high % hitting dogs, on the not so common times they do actually manage to qualify.

If there is anything for Sunday, I'll be posting them early tomorrow my time. I probably need to make a short change the confidence rating somehow, as showing stuff like 3.5/10 doesn't look too confident

Maybe I'll use grades or just lazily x2 the number.... Again though, this is working as a somewhat high volume system so far. And I'm gonna try to keep it that way, so only take the rating with a grain a salt.


Plays ytd now 9-4-0
Clippers -5 5.5/10 confidence
Bulls -5.5 6.75/10 confidence


Leans ytd now 8-2-1
Hawks -7 3.25/10 confidence
Cavs +10.5 3.75/10 confidence
Heat -15 3/10 confidence
Spurs -9.5 3.5/10 confidence
Grizzlies +2 3.75/10 confidence

Plays (and old leans) ytd 17-6-1
(Record combining all posted plays/leans since now using same qualification as leans to open up the system more)
Kings +4.5 confidence rating: B+
Rockets -4 confidence rating: B-

Leans version 2.0 ytd 0-0-0
(hope these leans cover less often than plays this time)
Lakers? (read below)
"If Holiday is out and Lakers need to cover -4 or less"
"If Holiday is in, Lakers a play with +4 or more point cushion"
Otherwise, it will go as a lean, will wait for line


This is what's here so far for today. Also the Blazers are very mild lean for the system. I kept Houston as BARELY a play, as a "B-" will be lowest grade for "plays" now... I mostly graded this pick as such, because I don't like the fact they have to cover more than a couple points on the road ATS. But, in their defense, they have played very tough teams on the road so far, so probably not completely fair. Still their ATS record on road is 2-5, but then again it is a short sample size...

Lakers also tricky to trust on road ATS, but with Holiday out I think they can take care of the Sixers. On the other hand, the system should be fine with them covering as a decent sized dog if Holiday ends up playing.

BUT, I still don't know if I fully trust this system to predict the Lakers, or if anyone can! Maybe I should remove it off the board no matter what the line is....

Mistake on my last post above, I meant to also put "Lakers?" under "Plays" as well. I now see line is now released for Lakers@Sixers, and decided I'll keep Lakers off the board, at least as a potential play. But will keep them as a lean only.

Plays (and old leans) ytd 17-6-1
Kings +4.5 confidence rating: B+
Rockets -4 confidence rating: B-

Leans version 2.0 ytd 0-0-0
Lakers -3 confidence rating: C-



And good luck to everyone else on their plays

Rockets
Kings

But then the one I was most scared about, and put as a lean, just now covered.. I think I need to let this system just spit out the plays and not filter them as I see fit, as they have been hitting good enough, even with this bad day. If I do add filters, they have to be added to be part of the system and not me going "hmmm... should I use it?" Cause that defeats the purpose of being a system.

I just did a run over on the system just now, just to check I didn't make any mistakes this morning on these since I was short on sleep. I did it right for the current stuff, but I missed out a well rated "Play" on the Blazers, when at first I goofed it and only detected a small advantage for them

So adding it, and maybe it could salvage the day a bit, or make it worse for the system...

From here on, will no longer have leans, just plays now! But I won't count the Lakers cover on the plays YTD. Though in the actual system sense, if the Blazers cover it could end up a 2-2 day, not the worst at least.

Again this system is a work in progress, and I'm still working carefully on it.


UPDATED CARD:

Plays updated ytd 17-8-1
Kings +4.5 confidence rating: B+
Rockets -4 confidence rating: B-
Blazers -5 confidence rating: A-

Leans version 2.0 updated ytd 1-0-0
Lakers -3 confidence rating: C-