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Falcon Plays for Today

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Posted: #351
 
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Posted: #352
Plays for Feb 18

Montreal (-140) 2 units NHL

Anaheim (-120) 2 units NHL

FS
 
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Posted: #353
How you doin MIT!  Avid follower! Jus had a question bout your system.  Does it calculate for overs / unders. Great  job on your plays and thank you for posting!  BOL PARTNER!
 
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Posted: #355
 
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Posted: #356
Thank you very much.
Would it be possible to post the percentages as well?
 
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Posted: #357
I'm going to parlay this - I have faith in you!
 
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Posted: #358
Quote Originally Posted by Decker23:

I'm going to parlay this - I have faith in you!


Good luck if you do so, but hockey hasn't been too kind to him lately. It is usually a split. Since hockey had an 11-0 start it has gone 11-9 since then and many of those losses were playing favorites so it is actually worse than just going 11-9, when you consider some losses are for -130 or more. Also since the 19-5 start in basketball and hockey combined he has gone 19-18 since. I am in no way bashing his plays because his selections are better than most overall. I am just saying I may want to wait to start playing parlays when the wins are coming a little more often.
 
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Posted: #361
bounceback to tommorw game sir
 
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Posted: #362
Hockey sucks. Complete 50/50 bet... Won't put $ on this sport ever again.
 
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Posted: #363
2015 Record
40-26 (+23.00 units)
60.61% Winners
(-110) avg juice
each for 2 units

NHL 24-12
NBA 16-14

Todays Plays

Islanders (-115) 2 units NHL

Clippers +3 (-105) 2 units NBA


I have been doing this a very long time  (since Aug 1986), these programs have been in use since their inception in 2009 and on a fulltime basis since April 2011. The overall win percentages will fall from 57.14% to 62%, that is the range and its an overall number for 3 sports (NHL, NBA and MLB).. The juice will average around (-110) but this will include higher favorites but also will include dogs.. Right now the win percentage is running at (60.61%) in 2015 (calendar year) and the juice is at (-110).. These numbers are very much in line with what we expect... There will always be good and bad streaks along the way and sure you could hop on and off at the wrong time.. Good Luck with your wagers..

NHL numbers for today
Pitt 57% (-29.50)
Wash 55% (-19.25)
Isles 62% (+17.20)
NYR 55% (-18.30)
Mont 62% (0.00)
Phil 64% (-25.80)
SJ/Dal Even

NBA
OKC -5.5 (my line OKC -6)
SA -3 (my line LAC -3)

As for the plays today, i personally never offer any human influence over the selections, so i always have no opinion on them myself. The plays are from a computer program and as i said earlier, Good Luck with your wagers today, whatever they may be..

FS
 
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Posted: #364
BOL  !

Appreciate the picks
 
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Posted: #365
[Quote]Clippers +3 (-105) 2 units NBA[/Quote]
LACash!
 
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Posted: #366
 
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Posted: #367
Quote Originally Posted by MITM:

2015 Record
40-26 (+23.00 units)
60.61% Winners
(-110) avg juice
each for 2 units

NHL 24-12
NBA 16-14

Todays Plays

Islanders (-115) 2 units NHL

Clippers +3 (-105) 2 units NBA


I have been doing this a very long time  (since Aug 1986), these programs have been in use since their inception in 2009 and on a fulltime basis since April 2011. The overall win percentages will fall from 57.14% to 62%, that is the range and its an overall number for 3 sports (NHL, NBA and MLB).. The juice will average around (-110) but this will include higher favorites but also will include dogs.. Right now the win percentage is running at (60.61%) in 2015 (calendar year) and the juice is at (-110).. These numbers are very much in line with what we expect... There will always be good and bad streaks along the way and sure you could hop on and off at the wrong time.. Good Luck with your wagers..

NHL numbers for today
Pitt 57% (-29.50)
Wash 55% (-19.25)
Isles 62% (+17.20)
NYR 55% (-18.30)
Mont 62% (0.00)
Phil 64% (-25.80)
SJ/Dal Even

NBA
OKC -5.5 (my line OKC -6)
SA -3 (my line LAC -3)

As for the plays today, i personally never offer any human influence over the selections, so i always have no opinion on them myself. The plays are from a computer program and as i said earlier, Good Luck with your wagers today, whatever they may be..

FS

Clippers -105 juice?  What book are you using?

Straight from the Lizards home between the crack in the rocks.  He said keep the points and hope for 1-1 or 2-0. 

Clippers +140
Mavericks +175

Teased @ +5
Clippers +8 & mavericks +10 =.909 ROI
 
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Posted: #368
What do the numbers for the NHL plays mean? For example you have the NY Islanders at 62% and +17.20. I understand that a plus number is a positive expectation play.
 
You are assuming a money line of -115 for the Islanders. I am getting a line of -125 and would like to be able to calculate if this is still a positive expectation play. How do I do that?
 
Thanks for all your plays. Keep up the good work.
 
Bill
 
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Posted: #369
Quote Originally Posted by mybestbet:


Clippers -105 juice?  What book are you using?

Straight from the Lizards home between the crack in the rocks.  He said keep the points and hope for 1-1 or 2-0. 

Clippers +140
Mavericks +175

Teased @ +5
Clippers +8 & mavericks +10 =.909 ROI

You guys can blame me or put me in the bathroom!!
I got on board two days ago and he's gone 0-3!!!
 
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Posted: #370
MITM -- thanks for posting your system picks and sharing with the forum. i really respect the work and effort that you put in. i have a quick question please..... does your computer program factor in and account for the fact that blake griffin is injured and out for the clippers tonight? thanks in advance for your answer and best of luck to you and all going forward.
 
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Posted: #371
Yes the griffin injury is accounted for.  And yes I'd play the Islanders at -125. 

The 2 numbers listed are a win %%% for that particular game and the second number is a Value rating for the win %%. No negative value numbers will ever be played. 

Sorry for delay in answers, I just saw them. 

I always focus on the big picture.  No one individual game means much to me. Wins will come and go, as long as I stay at or above 57.14% overall, I know things are going well.

FS
 
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Posted: #372
Quote Originally Posted by dafish:


You guys can blame me or put me in the bathroom!!
I got on board two days ago and he's gone 0-3!!!
Dude if you're flipping out over 3 losses in a row.... this whole sports betting thing is probably not for you. 

Otherwise stick to this thread he's showing you how to make money over the long run not having to bash your head into the wall when you lose half your bankroll in one day..... 
 
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Posted: #373
2015 Record
42-26 (+27.00 units)
61.76% Winners
(-110) avg juice
each for 2 units

NHL 25-12
NBA 17-14

Plays for today

Vancouver (-110) 2 units NHL

Houston +2.5 (-110) 2 units NBA


Todays NHL numbers
Van 62% +20.20
Car 53% -22.20
NYR/Buff NL
Stl/Bos NL
Chi 66% -15.80
Ana/Cal NL
Minn 62% -4.50

I dont anticipate any of the 3 unlined games to be a play..

Houston +2.5 (my line Hou -4)

As someone above said, dont get caught up in any one day, on any one game.. Guys we do this every day, we play 2% of BR per play, recalculate BR at the start of each calendar month. In fact ill write our betting model out once again...

NHL, NBA and MLB Only
1-3 Top Program plays daily
57.14% Win goal or higher
(-110) avg juice
Each for 2% of BR
Recalulate the BR at start of each month

Its as simple as that and if we follow that outline, everything will be fine.. Good Luck today with your wagers, whatever they may be..

FS
 
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Nice day yesterday, keep it up 
 
 
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