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FF - ATS Selective Bets - Week #4

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Posted: #1
Regular Season Record: 9-11 - 3.1 units

3-1 last night with Grizzlies, Jazz and Celtics winners and loss on Toronto. Don't understand why Raptors collapsed this way in the 4th. They were very steady during first three quarters. At least i return two units in the bank and will start the new week with positive energy. Later i will post if i have something to play. My goal for this week is to even my units and start clear next week. Let see if that happened.
 
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Posted: #2
Raptors always burn me.  


Is curry a certainty for mvp.  He is doing some incredible things.   Just needs to stay healthy. 


 
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Posted: #3
Tigers2013 Curry is the best player in the league right now. And it's the most fun to watch too. In today's competition in the West.. health is the most important thing. Home court advantage and health in playoffs... that's the key of success in playoffs.

I lean Rockets and Pacers today. Maybe this will be the last time i give a chance to Houston this season (i'm already 0-2 ATS on Rockets games)... i'm feeling like little chaser right now but love the spot for Houston after three straight losses against "weaker" on paper opponents. This team need to start play some defense... they have some good individual D-pieces but the team defense is just terrible.
 
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Posted: #4
Indiana Pacers +6.5 looks too good to be true 
might be a trap but will bite
 
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Posted: #5
tOp_scOre George Hill is out for the Pacers. That's the reason the line is too high. I probably will pass on Rockets.. Ariza is questionable... he is the only defender of Houston that i can trust...
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by FunkFreaker:

tOp_scOre George Hill is out for the Pacers. That's the reason the line is too high. I probably will pass on Rockets.. Ariza is questionable... he is the only defender of Houston that i can trust...

u think Hill is worth 2-3 points? Pacers on a roll right now
i would understand if PG was out...
against the Celtics they played better with Hill on the bench
PG was the difference.
 
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Posted: #7
Rodney Stuckey and Myles Turner are also out. Here is the entire Pacers squad for tonight's game Joseph Young, Monta Ellis, C.J Miles, Chase Budinger, Solomon Hill, Glenn Robinson, Paul George, Jordan Hill, Lavoy Allen, Rakeem Christmas, Ian Mahinmi. Most of these guys are second and even third string for NBA standards... I will pass here despite i loved the Pacers. The lack of depth could cause problems for Indiana against deep Chicago team.

I will pass tonight... Tomorrow schedule offer better games to cap. I have already some leans but will post it when i make little research for the games. BOL fellas. Funk will relax tonight with some beers and will just watch some games for fun.
 
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Posted: #8
FF, watched every single Rockets game this season and Ariza being out might be a blessing in disguise. He has been horrendous this season. Starting 5 should be Lawson, Howard, Jones, Harden and Thornton im guessing. Ariza might be a decent defender but on the offensive end, he literally cannot sink a shot. Guy has been cold all season so far. 
 
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Posted: #9
AussieDownUnder Yep but you can't argue that Rockets look terrible on defensive end and that's the main reason they suck right now. Last season Harden put 30+ every night and they just outscored their opponents in the regular season. Now his shooting is cold too and most of the teams beat them. Houston will be happy if they catch 6-7 seed in the West where they will be swept by team like Spurs, Clippers, Warriors. Ariza play bad basketball right now but he is proven player in the league and i believe the offense will start to click. However forgot himself players like Harden will never learn how to play defense and will never take ring... that's it.  I watched their last game against Mavs and it was disgusting... I've never seen so many open shots from three...
 
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Posted: #10
I probably will be on Wizards - 4 and Hawks - 3.5 today. I maybe will lock them somewhere in the day but won't have access to post them. I will post with small writeups when i have time. BOL
 
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Posted: #11
Fellas sorry that i couldn't post earlier but was at work all day. I locked earlier:

Atlanta Hawks - 3.5

and will be on Wizards tonight even without Beal... just wait for better line now.
 
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Posted: #12
Second and final for tonight:

Washington Wizards - 3

Sorry fellas nut no time for even small writeups tonight. Very confident on this one.
 
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Posted: #13
10-12 - 3.2 units
 
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Posted: #14
Early leans on first sight: Hornets, Celtics, Nuggets and Raptors.
 
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Posted: #15
FF When is your NBA ML Dogs 1st Quarter system going to start. Thanks 
 
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Posted: #16
RMG I'm not sure. If i find something good i will post it.

I have already locked one play for tonight:

Boston Celtics - 4.5
1.1 units (to win 1)

Love the way how Boston play right now. They play very good D and they are very deep... that's a recipe for long term success. Mavs are impressive on offensive end but they could have some problems with Boston defense. On the other side... their defense is very suspicious and really can't see how they will will for 5th consecutive time against this talented and very well coached team. Most of the Dallas wins this season are against very weak or depleted opponents. They struggle against decent defensive teams. They will struggle again tonight.


Lean Nuggets and Raptors. Could add one of these.
 
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Posted: #17
Add my second and probably final for tonight.

Jazz play great defense slow pace tempo game with running the the shot clock. On b2b Toronto will be ok with this playing style after last night high tempo running game against Warriors. Utah are masters of close games and i think tonight we will have another one close. Jazz aren't from those teams that will blow you out easily or will lead you with many points during the game. They are similar to Grizzlies playing style so taking the points in their game is not a bad idea. Returning home after big road trip for Utah could shake them a little bit. I will give a shot with Toronto tonight.

Toronto Raptors + 4.5
1.1 units (to win 1)

 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by FunkFreaker:

RMG I'm not sure. If i find something good i will post it.

I have already locked one play for tonight:

Boston Celtics - 4.5
1.1 units (to win 1)

Love the way how Boston play right now. They play very good D and they are very deep... that's a recipe for long term success. Mavs are impressive on offensive end but they could have some problems with Boston defense. On the other side... their defense is very suspicious and really can't see how they will will for 5th consecutive time against this talented and very well coached team. Most of the Dallas wins this season are against very weak or depleted opponents. They struggle against decent defensive teams. They will struggle again tonight.


Lean Nuggets and Raptors. Could add one of these.

U kno how much i like the celtics 
 
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Posted: #19
Love the celtics too. Brad Stevens is out coaching everybody. Just can't pull the trigger on this play because Dallas is winning and is very well coached as well. Hope you hit it
 
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Posted: #20
GL today FF..

I personally like the Hornets as well as the Celtics. Nets went home last night, beat a banged up Hawks team with no Teague. Before that they had traveled over the West Coast. Now back on the road again to Charlotte. I know its no that far (around 2-3 hour flight) but still, thats gotta be a pain to be traveling, back home for 1 game and then back on road again against a decent Charlotte team that has found their offensive mojo lately.
 
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Posted: #21
AussieDownUnder I love Hornets tonight but laying 6-7 points seems too much for such inconsistent team like Charlotte... Nets played very close games lately but maybe tonight really is the letdown time for them. I think bookmakers overvalue Hornets team with such line... it should be something around - 5 here. Last two seasons + this season Hornets as HF with line between - 5 and - 8 are 9-2 SU but 5-6 ATS... they are not the team that i can really trust in covering similar line... Nets are bad but i can't trust both teams right now. BOL if you decide to pull the trigger... i will stay away despite i have Hornets as a strong lean for tonight.

mya Thanks. I hope too. Both teams are very hot lately. It's gonna be great game for sure.

tOp_scOre Let's cash on them.
 
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Posted: #22
11-13 - 3.3 units

Little luck with Raptors cover thanks to both Favors and Burke for missing one of the two FT at the end. However Raptors have covered most of the game and I believe that cover was fair for us Toronto backers
Celtics totally collapsed at 4th quarter... classic moose. They led almost twenty in some part of the game... damn.
 
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Posted: #23
Only one lean for today: My boys from Golden State Warriors in classic DD blowout at Staples Center.
 
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Posted: #24
DD win against arch rival on their home court.   Not so sure funk.    
 
 
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Posted: #25
If Paul and Reddick are out... (they are doubtful for tonight and i think they both won't play) who's gonna handle Warriors hot back court ? Austin Rivers ? 38 years old Prigioni ? Or maybe offensive mind player like Crawford ? Tonight when i back home where my own NBA database is i will post you one amazing Warriors trend that is something like 9-1 SU and 9-1 ATS last two seasons with every game as road favorite and every game huge road blowout. This situation fit for tonight game and if Paul and Reddick are really out... Clippers are in very bad situation. After last two games where Warriors were close to loss i expect great game for them and the winning streak to continue against their hated rival. I agree that laying 6-7 points at Staple Center is suicide but GS win that game for sure with the current injury update and i will try it. Next game against Bulls... that's the spot where the streak could over.
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