Posted:
#1
NBA ATS 17/18: 17-19-2 -3.9 units
I noticed that Knicks played very well so far in the season against teams without elite pronounced game changer PG who can share and score the ball. Grizzlies had such player Mike Conley but unfortunately for them he is out. Memphis are 7-5 with him in the lineup and the catastrophic 1-10 without him. There is a big reason for that record. They are one of the league bottom bad rebounding teams with negative rebound differential and they count only on their great defense (opp FG%, opp turnovers, steals, blocks) to stay in games. I'm not sure that their defense will show up against typical home team like New York which will play with some extra energy with KP back in the team. Knicks suffered two consecutive losses without the Unicorn in the roster and now bounce back scenario looks really good against team that they will dominate under the glass and play without their arguably best player (considering that Mark Gasol is an all-star level also).
New York Knicks - 2
I read all day that Boston line is some kind of a trap. I look deep into the statistics and situations and I actually think that the line is a gift and the sportbooks offer us such a line only because of the last two fluky Mavs games. I also find some great trend that fade Dallas. Medium to big underdogs (6 points or more) that covered last two games with combined ats margin more than 33 (Mavs covered last two games with total ats margin of 36) are 32-176 (15.4%) SU and 79-123-6 (39.1%) ATS with avg line 8.5. Favorites outscored the underdogs by 10.3 ppg in these 208 games. It seems underdogs are crushed badly after two great ats wins. Mavs overperform recently and their regress will start soon... what better opportunity to fade them against one of the best teams in the league that play hard every game and there are still no soft performances that could worry us.
Boston Celtics - 7 (-115)
Buying half point here cause I'm sick of these half point losses recently.
I noticed that Knicks played very well so far in the season against teams without elite pronounced game changer PG who can share and score the ball. Grizzlies had such player Mike Conley but unfortunately for them he is out. Memphis are 7-5 with him in the lineup and the catastrophic 1-10 without him. There is a big reason for that record. They are one of the league bottom bad rebounding teams with negative rebound differential and they count only on their great defense (opp FG%, opp turnovers, steals, blocks) to stay in games. I'm not sure that their defense will show up against typical home team like New York which will play with some extra energy with KP back in the team. Knicks suffered two consecutive losses without the Unicorn in the roster and now bounce back scenario looks really good against team that they will dominate under the glass and play without their arguably best player (considering that Mark Gasol is an all-star level also).
New York Knicks - 2
I read all day that Boston line is some kind of a trap. I look deep into the statistics and situations and I actually think that the line is a gift and the sportbooks offer us such a line only because of the last two fluky Mavs games. I also find some great trend that fade Dallas. Medium to big underdogs (6 points or more) that covered last two games with combined ats margin more than 33 (Mavs covered last two games with total ats margin of 36) are 32-176 (15.4%) SU and 79-123-6 (39.1%) ATS with avg line 8.5. Favorites outscored the underdogs by 10.3 ppg in these 208 games. It seems underdogs are crushed badly after two great ats wins. Mavs overperform recently and their regress will start soon... what better opportunity to fade them against one of the best teams in the league that play hard every game and there are still no soft performances that could worry us.
Boston Celtics - 7 (-115)
Buying half point here cause I'm sick of these half point losses recently.
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