Fresh Start Phase #1 1/14/13

Nice stats and officiating angles. For me, the Under is the play simply because Chicago lost their last game to a lowly PHX squad. Thib will go back and emphasize their bread and butter - Defense - since they cannot count on the same scoring night in, night out. But they can count on their defense.

Besides that - when these 2 get together in Chicago last several it goes under.

Under 184 - best of luck

KhmerKid bol today,I'm hoping to hop on board with your picks. Lets win some money tonight.

Are we doing all totals this week?

Thanks in advance.

Totally.....Shirley

Like the stat-driven analysis but you may be missing one important aspect when using those numbers.  Your home and road PPG stats are very helpful, but those are averages and include games against defensively weak teams.  Both CHI and ATL play above average defense statistically, with ATL being slightly above average and CHI being one of the best in the league.  So you have to adjust those numbers downward to account for the better than average defenses.

Similarly, you've can't just look at the referee's numbers compared to the team's numbers.  You've got to look at their averages in relation to league averages.  League average scoring per game is right around 195, so you've got two ref's that right around the average and one ref that is higher than average.  To me, this would justify perhaps a small increase in the expected number of points but not anything significant.

POD = Under Magic =194 $7,700 to win $7,000

POD = Bulls -4 $3,300 to win $3,300

2 Team Parlay Action Revers $3,000 to win $12,000

Under Magic=194

Magic +2

2 Team Parlay Action Revers $3,000 to win $12,000

Mavericks -7

As always good luck on whatever you all decide to do. I know I know money management but I need to play these plays. Please play responsibly.