Froggy's Ultimate Martingale 2024-25 Season

@tvigilante2020

This is very much the reason why this system isn't created for everyone.

@Froggy80

I'll be interested to see how Portland does tonight in Houston again after being swept 4 quarters last night.

Hey Froggy, in your database, what are the spreads that have the high hit % when betting on quarters?

@tvigilante2020

Hey Froggy, in your database, what are the spreads that have the high hit % when betting on quarters?

It doesn't work like that, but you can look over the analysis. I updated the same google sheet.

Thanks...will check it out.

What kind of database are you using?

anddddddddddddddd.....can you do home away fave / dog splits with those stats?

@tvigilante2020

I’ve been collecting data for several years. The data was scraped off of several site like sportbookreview, team ranking, and even covers.

Ez

Winner winner chicken dinner!

1Q and out! 

I'm watchin, Froggy. Very interesting. My dad taught this system to me and called it the 'Eff up, double up'. Ive always been intrigued by it but have yet to find the trends that could make it reliable. The trends are there somewhere, though. Cool stuff. 

We're now at a record of 4 - 0.

Clean Sweeps last night:

Houston Rockets

Nothing on the cards for tonight. See you guys on Monday.

Clean Sweeps last night:

Philadelphia 76ers

Nothing on the cards for tonight. See you guys on Tuesday.

I think I fucked up.

I was looking at all of my data, and it seems that I collected the odds incorrectly from several sites. After I cleaned a ton of it up... well fuck! . I may be sidelined for a bit... but something else happened.

I have absolutely no idea how this could be even feasible, but using the same picking method as the quarter method, I was running a full-gate ATS analysis on the side, and it's showing a 83.697% win rate!! I have never heard of anyone having a hit rate that high consistently over several years. I'm going to make sure this isn't some weird fluke in the sheet, but if it isn't... well, forget the martingale. I'll absolutely run the full game ATS model.

In the meantime, I apologize for putting you guys at risk, and I'm just glad I found the bug now rather than later. I'll be back.

@Froggy80

 Thanks brother!

@Froggy80

 Good luck! It's really nice of you to even share any of this with others for free if it works. Most wouldn't do that. 

Ribbit

The system was doing well though? Much better than other “systems” out there.

@Doc_Holliday

And it may still be viable, but when the data changes, so must the metrics on what a good system looks like. I need to tweak the gauges so that I weed out the outliers and block any potential sweeps. For example, if I allowed low quality teams back into the model, sure, in the long run the model is still profitable, but there will be more sweeps. So, imagine you get swept twice in a row before we go on a 100 win run. Those first 2 will hurt like hell, and you wouldn’t want to continue.

Understood. Whenever the system is ready I’ll be ready. 

If you have time to place a wager,

Quarter Method

Houston Rockets 

I figured out how I jacked up my data. It's super clean, and working. No ATS strategy... odds were somehow flipped between home and away. It's all good now. We move forward with the quarter method.

Sorry, guys. When I finally finished updating all my data, there was only a minute left before game time. I apologize. The data did change a bit, so I'll continue to work on it, but tonight's match was a solid pick. I wish I had it out there sooner.

Alright. We're back in business. The full game ATS strategy resulting in 80%+ was the result of a gross miscalculation. It didn't make sense to me to begin with. I think of myself as fairly intelligent, but an 80%+ ATS strategy is something only a corrupted referee can pull off. So, we're back to the quarter method, but in a much more confident state of mind knowing that the data did not alter my belief in the system. Without further ado...

Record:

5 - 0

Clean Sweeps:

11/23/2024 - Philadelphia 76ers

11/25/2024 - Denver Nuggets

Today's Quarter Method Picks

Last night's call was on time, but too close to game time. So today, I make up for it with 2 picks:

Portland Trail Blazers (system expects 1Q ~ +3.5)

Brooklyn Nets (system expects 1Q ~ +3.0)

Two meals before turkey day! BOL to everyone who chooses to tail. 

Reminder: Always wait for Rotowire to confirm the lineup. If 2 or more significant players are sidelined, it nullifies the pick.