Welcome to the NBA Quarters Betting System, a data-driven, progressive betting strategy designed to maximize profitability while managing risks. Below is an overview of how the system works, key updates, and statistics for the 2024-2025 season.
The system uses a 4-legged Martingale model to secure a 1-unit profit per matchup, progressing through NBA quarters with calculated wagers. Proper bankroll management and game monitoring are essential for success.
Maximum Loss & Unit Size: Maximum loss per failed matchup is 20 units. To determine unit size:
Divide your total allowable loss by 20 units.
Bet Calculation:
1st Quarter: Start with a 1-unit pre-match wager + Vig.
Subsequent Quarters: Use the formula: Wager = (Total Wagers So Far + 1 Unit) + Vig This ensures losses are recovered and a 1-unit profit is achieved.
1Q: 1 unit wager = 1.1 units risked
2Q: 2.1 units wagered = 2.31 units risked
3Q: 4.41 units wagered = 4.851 units risked
4Q: 8.161 units wagered = 8.9771 units risked
-- Take a leap of faith
1
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
NBA Quarters Betting System: Comprehensive Guide
Welcome to the NBA Quarters Betting System, a data-driven, progressive betting strategy designed to maximize profitability while managing risks. Below is an overview of how the system works, key updates, and statistics for the 2024-2025 season.
The system uses a 4-legged Martingale model to secure a 1-unit profit per matchup, progressing through NBA quarters with calculated wagers. Proper bankroll management and game monitoring are essential for success.
Maximum Loss & Unit Size: Maximum loss per failed matchup is 20 units. To determine unit size:
Divide your total allowable loss by 20 units.
Bet Calculation:
1st Quarter: Start with a 1-unit pre-match wager + Vig.
Subsequent Quarters: Use the formula: Wager = (Total Wagers So Far + 1 Unit) + Vig This ensures losses are recovered and a 1-unit profit is achieved.
Prepare for 4Q nail-biters—placing all four wagers is crucial for profitability.
A clean sweep occurs when one team dominates all four quarters, both in points and the quarterly spread, resulting in the opposing team failing to cover the spread in any quarter.
Out of 6,479 matchups, 1,027 (~15.85%) resulted in clean sweeps, or roughly 1 in 7 games. Betting on the losing team during a clean sweep results in a 20-unit loss, emphasizing the importance of following data-driven methods.
For the 2024-2025 season, the following updates have been implemented to reduce risks:
Nullify Bets for Major Player Absences: If two or more top-scoring players are sidelined due to injury or illness, the bet is voided.
Enhanced Filters:
Avoid Strong Opponents: Exclude matchups with high disparities between top teams.
Factor Schedule Impact: Consider prior and next-day opponents to avoid fatigue-based risks.
Live Betting Optimization: Place wagers just before a quarter ends to capitalize on improved odds.
Bankroll Management: Plan your unit size to align with potential losses.
Push/Draw Rule: If a quarter ends in a draw (1Q, 2Q, or 3Q), repeat the same wager for the next quarter. Do not increase it.
Commitment to the System: Skipping any wagers, especially the 4Q, can disrupt profitability. Stick with the plan.
Conclusion
This system offers a disciplined and data-driven approach to NBA quarter betting. By understanding the mechanics, selecting your wager method, and adhering to the safeguards, you can leverage the system's reliability to target a consistent profit. Stay calculated, monitor games closely, and make this your most profitable season yet!
Prepare for 4Q nail-biters—placing all four wagers is crucial for profitability.
A clean sweep occurs when one team dominates all four quarters, both in points and the quarterly spread, resulting in the opposing team failing to cover the spread in any quarter.
Out of 6,479 matchups, 1,027 (~15.85%) resulted in clean sweeps, or roughly 1 in 7 games. Betting on the losing team during a clean sweep results in a 20-unit loss, emphasizing the importance of following data-driven methods.
For the 2024-2025 season, the following updates have been implemented to reduce risks:
Nullify Bets for Major Player Absences: If two or more top-scoring players are sidelined due to injury or illness, the bet is voided.
Enhanced Filters:
Avoid Strong Opponents: Exclude matchups with high disparities between top teams.
Factor Schedule Impact: Consider prior and next-day opponents to avoid fatigue-based risks.
Live Betting Optimization: Place wagers just before a quarter ends to capitalize on improved odds.
Bankroll Management: Plan your unit size to align with potential losses.
Push/Draw Rule: If a quarter ends in a draw (1Q, 2Q, or 3Q), repeat the same wager for the next quarter. Do not increase it.
Commitment to the System: Skipping any wagers, especially the 4Q, can disrupt profitability. Stick with the plan.
Conclusion
This system offers a disciplined and data-driven approach to NBA quarter betting. By understanding the mechanics, selecting your wager method, and adhering to the safeguards, you can leverage the system's reliability to target a consistent profit. Stay calculated, monitor games closely, and make this your most profitable season yet!
This is a new thread after the first one was flagged for promoting. I've correct the violation, and this is a continuation of the previous thread. We are currently at a record of 1 wins - 0 losses for the season here at Covers. The system has us at 10 wins - 0 losses since the start of the 2024 - 2025 season.
As a service, I am providing matchups that resulted in clean sweeps as a reminder as to why a systematic, backed by data, and battle-tested approach is absolutely necessary.
This is a new thread after the first one was flagged for promoting. I've correct the violation, and this is a continuation of the previous thread. We are currently at a record of 1 wins - 0 losses for the season here at Covers. The system has us at 10 wins - 0 losses since the start of the 2024 - 2025 season.
As a service, I am providing matchups that resulted in clean sweeps as a reminder as to why a systematic, backed by data, and battle-tested approach is absolutely necessary.
Remember to wait for the injury report to post prior to make a bet. If the odds change, let me know so I can re-evaluate the situation and provide guidance where I can.
-- Take a leap of faith
1
We have one pick today (11/21/2024):
Toronto Raptors +2 or better
Remember to wait for the injury report to post prior to make a bet. If the odds change, let me know so I can re-evaluate the situation and provide guidance where I can.
Visit this ^ google sheet that I created for wagering calculations.
Download the sheet as an excel file and open it up on your desktop, or create your own google sheet that you can modify based on your situation.
Change the value for the "Allowable Loss" to whatever you consider as money you're okay with losing (if it comes to that)
When you are calculating your wager, update the odds for the quarter you will be betting. This will produce the wager amount for you, automatically. I have provided both 'To Win' and 'To Risk' wagering values for your convenience.
'To Win' - use these values if you have a 'To Win' option for wagering 'To Risk' - this is the standard betting option, you can use the values
Visit this ^ google sheet that I created for wagering calculations.
Download the sheet as an excel file and open it up on your desktop, or create your own google sheet that you can modify based on your situation.
Change the value for the "Allowable Loss" to whatever you consider as money you're okay with losing (if it comes to that)
When you are calculating your wager, update the odds for the quarter you will be betting. This will produce the wager amount for you, automatically. I have provided both 'To Win' and 'To Risk' wagering values for your convenience.
'To Win' - use these values if you have a 'To Win' option for wagering 'To Risk' - this is the standard betting option, you can use the values
Although this system has been immensely improved, it's not a first attempt. The original attempt started 2 years ago. Here is the thread: Froggy's Ultimate Quarter System (2 years ago)
-- Take a leap of faith
0
Although this system has been immensely improved, it's not a first attempt. The original attempt started 2 years ago. Here is the thread: Froggy's Ultimate Quarter System (2 years ago)
Today's NBA matchup between the Brooklyn Nets and the Philadelphia 76ers features several notable aspects:
Ben Simmons' Return to Philadelphia: Ben Simmons, now with the Nets, returns to play at Philadelphia's Wells Fargo Center for the first time since February. His previous appearances were marked by significant fan reactions, and similar responses are anticipated today.
Injuries Impacting Key Players: The 76ers will be without Paul George, who is sidelined due to a bone bruise in his left knee. This injury is expected to keep him out for at least two games.
On the Nets' side, leading scorer Cam Thomas is probable to return after dealing with lower-back tightness, while center Nic Claxton is listed as questionable with a lower-back strain.
Team Dynamics and Recent Performance: The 76ers are experiencing internal challenges, including the recent leak of details from a team meeting, which has caused frustration among players.
They currently hold the league's worst record at 2-12. In contrast, the Nets, with a 6-9 record, are looking to build momentum after a narrow victory over the Charlotte Hornets.
These factors contribute to the unique context of today's game, making it a matchup to watch closely.
-- Take a leap of faith
2
I love AI; especially for this type of analysis.
Today's NBA matchup between the Brooklyn Nets and the Philadelphia 76ers features several notable aspects:
Ben Simmons' Return to Philadelphia: Ben Simmons, now with the Nets, returns to play at Philadelphia's Wells Fargo Center for the first time since February. His previous appearances were marked by significant fan reactions, and similar responses are anticipated today.
Injuries Impacting Key Players: The 76ers will be without Paul George, who is sidelined due to a bone bruise in his left knee. This injury is expected to keep him out for at least two games.
On the Nets' side, leading scorer Cam Thomas is probable to return after dealing with lower-back tightness, while center Nic Claxton is listed as questionable with a lower-back strain.
Team Dynamics and Recent Performance: The 76ers are experiencing internal challenges, including the recent leak of details from a team meeting, which has caused frustration among players.
They currently hold the league's worst record at 2-12. In contrast, the Nets, with a 6-9 record, are looking to build momentum after a narrow victory over the Charlotte Hornets.
These factors contribute to the unique context of today's game, making it a matchup to watch closely.
hey bro, I know sometimes your system will spit out more than one game a day. Do you recommend I split my bankroll into two or three to cover potentially one or more systems going at the same time? I personally split my bankroll into two just to stay in the game in case of a system Loss.
0
Brooklyn Nets 1Q +1.5 (-110) locked in.
Let’s go!!
hey bro, I know sometimes your system will spit out more than one game a day. Do you recommend I split my bankroll into two or three to cover potentially one or more systems going at the same time? I personally split my bankroll into two just to stay in the game in case of a system Loss.
I will tell you very much in advance what the picks are (just like today). There are times when we'll get a long stretch (several days) of no picks. So, account for these things accordingly.
I truly hope not to get a loss, but it has happened twice in the 5 years of data. So, I guess it can happen. So yes, splitting in half makes sense in my opinion.
-- Take a leap of faith
1
@Doc_Holliday
I will tell you very much in advance what the picks are (just like today). There are times when we'll get a long stretch (several days) of no picks. So, account for these things accordingly.
I truly hope not to get a loss, but it has happened twice in the 5 years of data. So, I guess it can happen. So yes, splitting in half makes sense in my opinion.
I always get the secret sauce question. I can tell you the ingredients, but not the quantities of each ingredient if that makes sense.
1. Power Ranks of both teams - minimum PR thresholds - maximum opponent PR thresholds 2. Previous day and Next day opponent power ranks 3. Average quarters won - averaged over the last 7 matches 4. Matches with at least 1 quarter won - averaged over the last 7 matches 5. Fatigue factor (B2B games, 3rd game in 4 nights, 5th game in 7 nights) 6. Minimum 7 games played in the season before any picks 7. Max Odds for Home and Away teams
Yea... these are the 7 major ingredients that goes into the system play picks.
-- Take a leap of faith
1
@The_Big_Tuna77
I always get the secret sauce question. I can tell you the ingredients, but not the quantities of each ingredient if that makes sense.
1. Power Ranks of both teams - minimum PR thresholds - maximum opponent PR thresholds 2. Previous day and Next day opponent power ranks 3. Average quarters won - averaged over the last 7 matches 4. Matches with at least 1 quarter won - averaged over the last 7 matches 5. Fatigue factor (B2B games, 3rd game in 4 nights, 5th game in 7 nights) 6. Minimum 7 games played in the season before any picks 7. Max Odds for Home and Away teams
Yea... these are the 7 major ingredients that goes into the system play picks.
I've added an image of the spreadsheet that I use. There are other sheets in the tabs that I can't show you, but the summary page should be convincing enough. Froggy80's System Screenshot
-- Take a leap of faith
1
I've added an image of the spreadsheet that I use. There are other sheets in the tabs that I can't show you, but the summary page should be convincing enough. Froggy80's System Screenshot
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no sweat today.
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