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Funk's NBA bets - 2013/2014

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Posted: #676
Saturday:

Spurs - 3.5
5.5 units (to win 5)
---------------------------------------------------
Mavericks + 5.5
5.5 units (to win 5)
---------------------------------------------------
Pistons @ Bulls - Under 189
5.5 units (to win 5)

That's my final three. I avoid my other two leanings. Deng is officially out which is good for my under and bad for Chicago... think that here could be a trap regardless long winning home streak for Bulls against Pistons.

Allen is out for Memphis which is bad... he is very good defender and now Curry and Thomson will have more space... I will avoid my Grizz lean. This is not bad spot (i wrote earlier that it is) for GS finally stop this disaster streak... Coin flip
 
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Posted: #677
I got chi-4.0 locked didnt know deng was out 
Almost same pick for today but i honestly wana lose dal even tho i got them for 2u cuz my players bomb on por lol
 
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Posted: #678
Saturday:

Spurs - 3.5
5.5 units (to win 5)
---------------------------------------------------
Mavericks + 5.5
5.5 units (to win 5)
---------------------------------------------------
Pistons @ Bulls - Under 189
5.5 units (to win 5)

ATS: 33 - 32  = 50.8 %
O/U: 23 - 25 = 47.9 %
Overall: 56 - 57 = 49.6 %

Units: - 33.5
(avg unit bet - 5.5)


 
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Posted: #679
 
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Posted: #680
Leaning so far:

Thunder - 4.5

1) Both losses for Indy since start of the season are in b2b (against Portland and Chicago).

2) Pacers are best team so far in the league but i really can't imagine how they could beat best two in the west (IMO) for two straight days...

3) Thunder are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS against b2b this season with winning margin of 12.7 points. All three winning were against quality opponents: Clippers, Mavericks and Timberwolves.

4) Thunder are 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS against b2b last season with avg line of 11.4 and winning margin of 16.1 points. Only Pelicans (win by 4) and Nuggets (loss) avoid losing with more then 5 points (the spread of today game)

5) Thunder are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS against b2b 2011/12 season with avg line of 10.1 and winning margin of 17.1 points. In all 7 wins here OKC won by 7 or more points.

6) Last season OKC won both games with 11 and 22 points.

The numbers, my feeling and KD told me one think. Time for OKC to show up great game against best team in the league.



 
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Posted: #681
I like the thunder also but then again we liked sas yesterday
 
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Posted: #682
Jhon Pacers have to loss somewhere... This 16-2 record is amazing but i don't think they could beat every team in the league at any time... especially b2b against top west teams... I really can't find worse b2b for any team like this Indy weekend against SAS and OKC.... So this is one of the best spots this season to look for Pacers lose (cause they won't lose much this season and everybody knows that). NBA season is very long and exhausting marathon and Indiana knows that. They are human and they couldn't play on their 100% every night for their fans pleasure because i think this will have bad reflection in playoffs... If Pacers put everything tonight they probably would win but they are b2b against very good opponent... against best blocker and best scorer in NBA last seasons... Thunder - 4.5 is not best bet for sure. But i see very good points in it, so i'm on their side tonight
 
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Posted: #683
I already put some money into it earlier hope we win bol
 
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Posted: #684
Sunday:

Thunder - 4.5
5.5 units (to win 5)

Leanings:

Pistons + 3.5
Raptors + 5.5




 
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Posted: #685
not hacking your thread funk but been following you for a 2 months now and im diggin your pics.  I must say tho im loving the pistons/miami UNDER 196. Also the big factor is, if Wade is playing? miami wins. but no word as of yet soo im also leaning  pistons +
 
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Posted: #686
alg48212 This lean is only because RLM.. + clear advantage for Pistons under the dash. Miami proves last years and now that they have big problems with big teams (like Pacers for example)... This year Detroit are one of the biggest with three big mans out of five starters... Probably won't play it but really like it...

I like under more than over but i have bad feeling that this game will be very close to the line... so i'll stay away. BOL with what you decide

I've got some feeling also that Lakers tonight will be huge public blow... everybody pounds them because "Kobe return"... I think that this Kobe return will have bad impression for Lakers because he is not in a good game shape and will miss tones of shots in first games... and everybody know what shot consumer is Bryant. What do people think ? That Kobe will put 91 again vs Raptors with first game for 8 months ? Toronto plays close games with Lakers if you look past years. So this is Raptors + points or stay away game for me.
 
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Posted: #687
Sunday:

Thunder - 4.5
5.5 units (to win 5)
-----------------------------------------------
Raptors + 5
5.5 units (to win 5)

Brutal RLM in Lakers game.... some books already dropped to - 4.5.... this line smells really bad. It's Lakers special from last season to not covering the spread when public is hard on them. I think there is good chance tomorrow when i woke up i'll see here tones of threads like "Sh** Lakers", "This dump Lakeshow" and etc
 
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Posted: #688
Last four games between Pistons and Heat without Wade:

12/3/13 DET L 97-107
12/28/12 @ DET L 99-109
4/8/12 DET W 98-75
1/25/12 @ DET W 101-98

Heat are 1-3 ATS
 
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Posted: #689
Sunday:

Thunder - 4.5
5.5 units (to win 5)
-----------------------------------------------
Raptors + 5
5.5 units (to win 5)
-----------------------------------------------
Pistons + 3.5
5.5 units (to win 5)

I had a good week so i can afford to take a risk with two fade public dogs tonight. GL fellas
 
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Posted: #690
hi funk I've been following you for  a week,  can you post early for your bets? thanks
 
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Posted: #691
bad_trip96 Sorry but i couldn't do that... I post my bet when they are final. There are many things like line changes, injuries, even trades (like last night) which could change my bet at any time... I'm successful basketball capper for four years now and this is very important thing of capping. Sometimes i post interesting trends and even some bet in early hours of the day so that's how i can help you. BOL mate 


Sunday:

Thunder - 4.5
5.5 units (to win 5)
-----------------------------------------------
Raptors + 5
5.5 units (to win 5)
-----------------------------------------------
Pistons + 3.5
5.5 units (to win 5)


ATS: 35 - 33  = 51.5 %
O/U: 23 - 25 = 47.9 %
Overall: 58 - 58 = 50.0 %

Units: - 29
(avg unit bet - 5.5

Last monday i was 6 games below . 500. Very successful week for me it was.... Still i need 5 game winning streak to change the color in units section. When i saw my last year records i see that december often is pretty good... January and february (along with playoffs especially ATS) are my strongest months so i finally have good feeling that this season again will be profitable
 
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Posted: #692
Okay I understand but can't just post early for your favorite team to bet even though there's no final lines yet or injury. for tomorrow what is your best bet? I'm looking for gsw and dal. Thanks bro
 
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Posted: #693
I'm currently down last week due to denver, what a badluck. =(
 
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Posted: #694
I haven't research today schedule yet but on first sight is really awful. I don't even think that i will play tonight. About your two leanings... I like Mavericks more than Warriors. Bobcats are not so bad this season and the spread is very big so they could keep it close. Without Iggy GS this season played some close games at road so be careful with their bet.  Mavericks matchups well against Kings and they are 13-1 SU since 09-10 season with winning margin of 10.8 points. There was trade between Raptors and Kings and i don't know what reflection will have to this game...
 
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Posted: #695
ah okay, anyways I've read the trade regarding the kings. I might go with dallas, how about the over and under for tomorrow?
 
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Posted: #696
Hey funk missed your third pick yesterday so went 2/0.   Sorry about yourself.  

Agree tomorrow's card has no standout games but we will need some action


Do you have access to data on ats records for team starting at each point spread.  That +3.5 and +4 seems to be a very favourable line to play
 
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Posted: #697
Here you my friend:

These are the results from last three seasons + this season (10/11, 11/12, 12/13, 13/14):

When home is fav with line from - 1 to - 4

ATS: 346-413-21 (-1.57, 45.6%) avg line: -2.7

when road is fav with line from - 1 to - 4

ATS: 299-306-14 (-0.97, 49.4%) avg line: -2.5

overall:
 
ATS: 645-719-35 (-1.30, 47.3%) avg line: -2.6

As you see last years low line road dog hit good percentage.

When home is fav with line is set to - 4

ATS: 57-65-5 (-1.61, 46.7%)

When road is fav with line is set to - 4

ATS: 37-50-2 (-2.40, 42.5%)

Overall:

ATS: 94-115-7 (-1.94, 45.0%)

When home is fav with line is set to - 3.5

ATS: 69-72-0 (-1.20, 48.9%)

When road is fav with line is set to - 3.5
     
ATS: 30-49-0 (-3.27, 38.0%)

Overall:

ATS:     99-121-0 (-1.94, 45.0%)

These lines - 3.5 and - 4 are dog lines last three seasons...




 
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Posted: #698
hey Funk doesn 't seem so low the total of the kings mavs game?
what do you think about it?
 
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Posted: #699
It's scary low... I think it's because last night trade. I don't know if Rudy will play today but i don't think he will fit in Kings roster from the first day... so we can expect poor FG% performance from him. Vasquez (assist man) is in Toronto now... really don't know. It could be gift as it could be solid trap... we'll see
 
 
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Posted: #700
now that taylor is out for bobcats, what do you think about the cha gsw game?
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