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Funk's NBA bets - 2013/2014

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Posted: #851
Strong early lean:
Wolves at Grizzlies - Under 196.5

Memphis first home game with Tony Allen back in the roster for Grizz. I think he and Randolph could guard well the top two point weapons of Minny - Love and Martin. Grizzlies knows that without their best defender Gasol they have no chance with fast pace against good running and fast break team like Wolves. So i expect slow tempo from their side and good defense on the top two players of Wolves. Also i have to notice that last five games between these opponents totals never reach 197 points Wolves averaging 105.4 at road but all of these games were against run and gun opponents: Lakers (without Kobe), Clippers, OKC, Dallas, Houston, Denver.... So maybe tonight they will fail to reach even 95 against good defend team
 
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Posted: #852
 
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Posted: #853
2 days time pistons will be b2b against pacers.  Should be an under play



Thanks for replying about the data funk but not sure if you understood what I was saying


I want know for example how accurate the books set their total or handicap to the actual.  For example for bulls game are the totals within 1 to 3, 4 to 6 etc of the close.  Or for handicap do they cap the game within + or - 2 points, etc.   maybe books are more sharp on certain teams or spots that we could bet around.  My books offer winning margin bets eg 1 to 10 points
 
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Posted: #854
@Funk

- clippers are not that bad on the road and vs wizard that has many key  injured players. Anyways can you post more earlier for the strong lean in.

 
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Posted: #855
bad_trip96 They are around 50:50 at road against crap eastern teams. Imagine how they will perform against way better and motivated (yeah... the motivation in west is much better because there are 12 teams with real chances for playoffs battling for just 8 spots... and there will be teams with better record than .500 which will fail to reach playoffs compared to east where maybe 2 or 3 teams will be with losing record) west opponents at road. This team has huge love from the public but the only reason to bet on them is just one and only Chris Paul. JJ Redick is good also but now is injured. Clippers were great call last night but i hate to pull my money on Griifin and Jo(ke)rdan. You will see very few bets on Clippers from me and many against them...especially when they are fav at road. And i have already sure long term bet. As soon as playoff tree is ready to go i will bet: Clippers to lose in First Round (like last two years).

Tigers. Enter here: https://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query?sdql=+team+%3D+Bulls+and+season+%3D+2013&submit=S+D+Q+L+!

Just write the name on team and year you want Look the ATSm and OUm statistics. That are + and -  compared to the line margins of all games this year. I hope i help you.
 
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Posted: #856
But i really don't think you will find some team on which books are more sharp... every team covered the spread sometimes with 20+ margin and other time they fail and the result is -20
 
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Posted: #857
Sunday:

Wolves at Grizzlies - Under 197
5.5 units (to win 5)

BOL
 
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Posted: #858
 
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Posted: #859
Good luck Funk, like that under... I think you should look at Thunder game under as well
 
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Posted: #860
Quote Originally Posted by FunkFreaker:

Sunday:

Wolves at Grizzlies - Under 197
5.5 units (to win 5)

BOL


bingo
 
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Posted: #861
Thanks QuidProQuo. Got lucky....if i have to be honest but really can't expected dudes like Barea to sinks threes in that way... Grizz needs to improve their defense or playoffs will be miracle


Wolves at Grizzlies - Under 197
5.5 units (to win 5)


ATS: 40 - 37  = 51.9 %
O/U: 27 - 27 = 50.0 %
Overall: 67 - 64 = 51.1 %

Units: - 16
(avg unit bet - 5.5)
 
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Posted: #862
diondimucci
 
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Posted: #863
starting to look good man 
 
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Posted: #864
Yeah... just more three games winning streak and all colors will be green The bad thing is that month and a half after start of the season i'm on starting position. I need to concentrate more if i want to repeat my results from last three seasons (57-60%).
 
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Posted: #865
Hah fellas. Check my NFL thread:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101775746&page=1

Good start i think
 
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Posted: #866
Impressive start.  Likewise know very little about nfl but will tail for the fun of it.  Season is almost over though
 
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Posted: #867
Clippers plus 2 feels good tomorrow.  Home dogs that need a scalp


 
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Posted: #868
Quote Originally Posted by Tigers2013:

Clippers plus 2 feels good tomorrow.  Home dogs that need a scalp



Teams not do really play well after a long road trip. For Clips, that's a 7 games trip which is unusually long. And Spurs have been destroying Clips. 
 
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Posted: #869
I like Spurs - 2 also... just they are better and deeper team than Clipps. And this game is one of the few times in the year when you can't see any huge advantage of Chris Paul against Tony Parker (which dribble is incredible... like Derron Williams... and you saw what happened to CP several times last thursday)

Interesting trend.

Last year when b2b eastern teams visits Indiana Pacers:

Wizards Pacers 85-89
Raptors Pacers 74-72
Cavaliers Pacers 81-96
Wizards Pacers 81-89
Bucks Pacers 80-95
Bobcats Pacers 88-96
Pistons Pacers 79-98
Nets Pacers 89-84
Bulls Pacers 92-97
Celtics Pacers 83-81
Hawks Pacers 94-100

I see just one game of 11 with over 192

This year:

Cavaliers Pacers 74-89
Seventysixers Pacers 98-106 (but here we are talking about worst team in NBA which play NO defense)
 
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Posted: #870
Leanings:

Pistons at Pacers - Under 192
Lakers at Hawks - Under 204.5
Spurs - 2

About Lakers under. This season Hawks played at home 12 games and guess how many of them finished with more than 204.5 ?

Just one of course and again against the "best" defense in the league:

Hawks Seventysixers     113-103 (216)

There was one game which is near to this number:

Hawks Clippers 107-97 (204) FG% in this game are: 47.0 % for LAC and 51.% for ATL

So we have this cool statistic + Kobe return which slow down the tempo in Lakers games + 7 seasons (this is just number.. these teams changes their rosters, coaches and playing style during the years)  in a row when Atlanta (home) and Lakers (road) never reached this total. I think Hawks will slow the pace here. They could beat with good defense Lakers (without real PG in this game) easily. Run and gun will be headache for them with so many three shooters in Lakers.
 
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Posted: #871
You're good man  May I ask, do you think that Sas@Lac have a great chance to go over?
 
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Posted: #872
Scherbatsky tough game for predict totals... SAS could play slow and fast pace both with success. I'll stay away here for sure... sorry but don't want to take any side. If i have gun on my forehead and i have to decide i'll go with over but there is no gun so i can avoid this game with ease
 
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Posted: #873
Woot good to see you on pacers under!!
I honeslty like lal+5.0 better than the under
And still thinking about sas.
 
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Posted: #874
Alright. Bol  
 
 
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Posted: #875
Good analysis ! BOL and gL!
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