***Game 2: +EV Bettor's Statistical Analysis***

Just to elaborate, ^ Dr. John is not saying contrarian betting can’t sometimes offer value. But blindly fading the public is unlikely to lead to +EV. It must be combined with picking and choose spots based on regression analysis.

Youve got it so backwards its crazy... and I would love to hear you elaborate

The statistcal model is factored into the line...which is their ammunition for the contrarian angle..

this is especially true for high profile games and has been winning in the NBA playoffs year in and year out... like clockwork

in recent years oddsmakers have been able to use halftime and live wagers to maximize profits and sometimes make it difficult for sharp action to adjust, hedge,middle... but the contrarian play itself before tip is the strongest its ever been

not sure why I started this... it wont have an end unfortunately

I hope we are all smart enough to know that blindly fading the public is a break even play... might even lose slightly after juice

RLM, Steam, lines holding despite taking 80-20 lobsided action, highly viewed games (such as the one you have wagered on tonight)... all coming together...is an extremely profitable play... and very profitable when only a few of these signals are involved.

Almost always... without fail...in the nba... will the "statistical capping" leave you hanging... on these games

Funny thing with this game though:

Books relatively balanced... great time for "statistical capping"

And anyone who has ever watched the game of basketball pasionately...would arrive to the logical conclusion... That the warriors can drub the cavs... by more than 20 effing points.... any... time... they... want 

I hope we are all smart enough to know that blindly fading the public is a break even play... might even lose slightly after juice

RLM, Steam, lines holding despite taking 80-20 lobsided action, highly viewed games (such as the one you have wagered on tonight)... all coming together...is an extremely profitable play... and very profitable when only a few of these signals are involved.

Almost always... without fail...in the nba... will the "statistical capping" leave you hanging... on these games

Funny thing with this game though:

Books relatively balanced... great time for "statistical capping"

And anyone who has ever watched the game of basketball pasionately...would arrive to the logical conclusion... That the warriors can drub the cavs... by more than 20 effing points.... any... time... they... want 

sry for double post... but anyways.... much respect and bol.... because I do think you are a clever dude... especially with your marketing approach

Let me elaborate...

There will be a time in this series... where based on the line... the cavs will be getting LESS value than tonight... for way less "EV"

and they will cover by a landlslide....statistical analysis will guide you right to the warriors on this game 

Just another sprinkle... I win at baseball and I can MAYBE name 20 players names in the MLB....maybe

0-2 on the night due to some extremely unfavorable shooting % variances. Way she goes.

The fair line was -10.9. This remains unchanged.

So you’re also 2-2. Congrats.

this is why I stay in the MLB forum for the most part.. peeps are crazy in here

crush em next time doc john

Thanks tuna. In Dr. John’s experience, people on this forum tend to get extremely defensive anytime someone presents sports investing in a very logical, pragmatic manner. Quite possibly because it makes them confront the fact that they aren’t truly going about it in a strategic manner - one of the biggest red flags for degeneracy.

I was just messing around... it just always seems more hostile in here than the other sports...bol

Dr. John your analysis and persona are appreciated, if some people don't like your thread,(as you said) they should just stay away, it ain't that hard. It's also easier tearing than building so ignore them and keep posting. You DO have some fans.

Baseball's for pissy's!  J/K