blah blah blah 
Melos. Here ya go bud.
2016 Record: 13-3.
Why do I cite a boxing match - correction, no A boxing match but one of the greatest boxing matches of all time - for this an NBA Western Conference Final playoff game in 2016?
Because human psychology is consistent. Our courage, our conviction, our ability to persevere in spite of the most imposing of obstacles has not changed with regard to how our brain works and how our brain propels the body since 1975, or 1575, or 1575 BC.
And when you are dealing with the psychology of a subgroup of extraordinarily elite athletes, the examination of their mindset and their ability to perform becomes even more precise.
We must draw correlations of and through psychology (not causations), to understand how one opponent might react to another, or one team to another.
It was prior to that fight that Ali ruthlessly mocked Frazier with perhaps the most racially charged press conferences of all-time: one in which he pounded a toy gorilla with his fist, the gorilla symbolizing the great Joe Frazier. We know what Ali was saying and what he meant to convey and it was cruel (and unusual).
Normally I'd say such mockery was due for a rightful comeuppance and put my money on Frazier, had I been alive at the time.
But that fight ended how? With Frazier's trainer throwing in the towel in the 15th round. Yes, one of the all-time greats couldn't even answer the bell for the final round.
Even the pre-fight mockery couldn't drive him to get past the 15th and have the judges to call the fight...and in boxing, anything is possible when it goes to the cards.
Ali was so brazenly confident going into that fight, he felt he could beat Frazier even if he ruthlessly slandered him on the way in, that is, he got his punches in before the fight even started.
So how does this relate to the Thunder vs. Warriors?
Well I saw this Ali-like cocky confidence when Durant and Westbrook were asked a question about Steph Curry's defense after the Game 5 loss. Watch it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSs0bbdDhOA
Folks, this is a 73 win team (now 83 wins with the playoffs); this is a team with the greatest shooter the game has ever seen; these are the defending champs; and here you have two of the best players in the league on the opposing team not worrying one iota about creating bulletin board material for Golden State. They are literally laughing at the notion Steph can adequately guard Westbrook. And Durant's answer is clearly a backhanded compliment. Like Lebron's comments about Curry recently, the answer was more to insult than it was to praise.
And that shows how far these two power kegs of the court have come: they are ready to explode. And we are going to profit from it.
They took out a mega co-favorite to win the title in the Spurs.
And how did they do it? They waited for Game 6 and BOMBED them by 14 in a game that they could have won by 40. Why? Because they KNEW the refs could take over and push this series to 7 and they wouldn't allow it (as the NBA has done countless times historically under David Stern who washed his hands of such notions like Pontius Pilate. The gambler was no fool all the while.).
Because THIS IS OKC's Game 7. As Game 6 was the last round too. You CANNOT go back to San Antonio for a Game 7. You CANNOT go back to Golden State for a Game 7.
You need to get the job done RIGHT NOW. So you get all the Game 7 intensity on your home court for all the marbles in a Game 6. There are reasons why a team hasn't come back from a 3-1 deficit in conference finals in nearly 33 years. It is EXTREMELY hard to do and this is the game that is EXTREMELY hard to win, even for a team like Golden State.
And psychologically, I see a team that is ready to do it. I've said this before: you get PEAK KD; you get PEAK Westbrook; you get a mature and confident workmanlike Adams; you get Roberson who is shooting nearly 60% from 3 in the series; you get an always solid Ibaka. You get a truckload of height. That's quite a bit of 'gets'. You do deal with a bench that can give you more but so many minutes will be eaten up by the starting 5 in this game it will matter less.
And on the other side of the ball? Where are the dominant Warriors? Is this the Warrior team you watched all year? You know damn well it is not. And what is the reason? The dagger 3's just aren't falling right now for Golden State. 37%, 30%, 30% from 3 in the past 3, two of which were blowout losses. This is a team that shot 41% from 3 all year. And when they get hot, they can shoot 50%+ from 3.
And Curry? Is he injured or isn't he? It doesn't matter. He will pile up the points because he always has the ball but his shooting percentages in the series are 42% and 37%(3's) compared to 50% and 45%(3's) for his season averages.
And all those gargantuan, fall off your seat three's (like the one he hit in OT against OKC to win in the regular season)...long gone like dust in the wind. *Poof*. He doesn't even look like he WANTS to take those shots. And when he does lauch some moonshots some barely scrape rim.
And THOSE are the shots that struck fear in opponents. But no more.
Those shots are not falling. 3, 3, 3, 3: They are not falling with the same rapid fire consistency these past 3 games. Steph is 7-29 from 3 in the last 3.
And Klay has been worse: 41% and 29%!(3's) compared to season averages of 47% and 42%. The averages they had during the year won them SEVENTY THREE games. There is a reason this game is +2.5 Golden State folks...
73? There's a 7 and a 3 I'd like to reference; they may not win 3 against OKC in a 7 game series.
Don't even get me started on Green who is so far off his regular season self, he may be a Javale McGee in a Draymond Green jersey.
This is not the same team.
And now let's examine some select quotes highlighting OKC's mindset:
Draymond Green: “That's a tough, tough building to play in. They feed off that crowd. They're always in attack mode there, so we've got to make sure that we go in there and exceed their intensity level and try to take the crowd out the game.”
Curry: “It will take all of our IQ, all of our gamesmanship, and just 48 great minutes to get a win down there, considering how the last two games (in OKC) have gone. So there's going to be a decision point at the end of that game where we can either keep our foot on the gas pedal and keep momentum and take the crowd out of it, or let them do what they've been doing.”
Coach Steve Kerr: “We want to win the next two and get back to The Finals. We know how difficult it's going to be, but we'll give it a great shot.”
We WANT to win...we want!
Not the cocky, confident and brash team from the 73 win regular season now is it...?
I love OKC coming off a loss. I love that this is OKC's game 7. I love the cocky confidence OKC is showing...the fearlessness. The belief that their Finals dream can be achieved.
I love that the Cavs won tonight, ending their series, setting the stage for even more urgency for rest and recoup for a potential finals match-up.
I will say that the line is a 1/2 pt pricey but this is a game where OKC should do what they did to San Antonio...leave it all out on the floor from start to finish. Beat Golden State like Ali beat Frazier from pillar to post late in that fight. Make Golden State throw in the towel.
And I absolutely love the burden, the weighted yoke, of the 73 win season where nothing short of a championship will do for the salivating media ready to pounce all over its season-long darling, soon to be a rejected prom date, if it drops this 6th game.
I love that Game 5 was a mere formality for the league who whistled up Adams with 2 quick ones, sending a clear message that OKC would be crippled early in a attempt to win. And even at THAT, OKC hung around the entire game, in Golden State, in a game the refs controlled and sent the Warriors to the line more times drunkard orders another round. There will clearly be some 'ref giveback' to OKC in Oklahoma City after last game. That is the way the NBA works and that is in our favor.
And we will pay the 2.5 and and put our faith in PEAK Durant and PEAK West and a fully healthy OKC team to bring this bet home.
And finally, if the Ali vs. Frazier analogy doesn't float your boat, maybe the 2007 Warriors 4-2 win over the dominant Mavs that year will.
This series has been almost an exact duplicate of that one. This isn't a 1-8 matchup but the Thunder were heavy dogs just like Golden State was in 2008.
You can even look at the scores to compare:
2007 Golden State wins series 4-2
GS 97 @ Mavs 85
GS 99 @ Mavs 112
Mavs 91 @ GS 109
Mavs 99 @ GS 103
GS 112 @ Mavs 118
Mavs 86 @ GS 111
2016 Thunder lead series 3-2
OKC 108 @ GS 102
OKC 91 @ GS 118
GS 105 @ OKC 133
GS 94 @ OKC 118
OKC 111 @ GS 120
Shock win by dog; Favorite with a big bounce back win; Dog takes the next 2 at home; Favorite wins game 5 at home on life support but doesn't romp....Game 6 coming up....
Does what happened in 2007 affect 2016? NO. But the psychology of what happened in 2007 in that series is very much alike this series and is going on right now (or at least I posit such a notion) even if no players on the court are even remotely the same.
Oh, and we get all those the maniacal Finals Championship-starved fans who see like they are practically on the court at times.
OKC is now 7-3 against two teams that won a combined 140 regular season games. Yes the Warriors are 3-1 as dogs this year but those games, and that team seem so far away right now. Because the giant killer... is here.
The pick:
OKC -2.5 OVER GOLDEN STATE
Well said
You're on the same side but because the historical references in the write-up are of no legitimacy to you ( in a write-up I'd say about 5% of the posters here bother to provide), you mock the post. Not the pick! The post only! But you are on the same side, henceforth, regardless of our reasoning we came to the same conclusion, but you feel the need to slander the path of how that pick was obtained.
Nice way to start your day huh?
I try to make my write-ups entertaining as well as informative. Bottom line, I'm here to give a winner ONLY regardless, or all this is meaningless. Once you realize that (and you haven't realized it in many a moon because you've been in my thread for years), you may actually appreciate it like others here.
Papa,
I, as a hardcore gamblers like yourself, always drop in on the analysts pick (including the legendary Barkley) for fade material.
But those very same analysts you speak of, that are backing OKC tonight, had Golden State in 6 for the series.
So they are guaranteeing their loss on both ends regardless! Which is to be expected! I only worry about tonight!
Established in 1995,
'Joe Public' has been, and continues to pound OKC -2.5
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