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$$$growing popularity of 3,6 or 13 theory$$$

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Posted: #1
I have been watching this trend for the last month and have seen more than impressive trend towards the positive.
 
For those interested: 3,6 or 13 theory applys only to NBA road dogs.  My understanding is that often when a road team in the NBA is getting 3,6 or 13 points it is because Vegas has no strong opinion of where to place the line and is basing it's spread on factors like
*get equal number on both sides regardless of predicted score
*one team is obviously better than the other but nott sure how much
*there are so many damn games, here's your number...whatever
 
Two nights ago I banked with Utah +3, Chi +6 and NO +3 with New Orleans, Utah and Indy winning straight up.
 
Last night Chicago upset GS as 13 pt dogs.  This has happened several times this year with Charlotte, Minnesota and Seattle winning SU against 13. 
 
 
 
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Posted: #2

Watch tonight as lines are bouncing around this trend.

 

look at Seattle getting 12.5 at Phoenix

Memphis getting 13 against Dallas

and Cleaveland getting 3.5 against ATL

 

(not to far off are LAL and NJ on the road)

 
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Posted: #3
please give support or criticism on trends you've noticed or know
 
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Posted: #4
does the number have to be exactly 3, 6 and 13??
 
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Posted: #5
 
will deginitely look into it tonight.. But I don't think the suns will loose to seatle tonight.. But lets wait and C...
 
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Posted: #6
not buying it, but interesting enought to read
 
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Posted: #7
interesting
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by southexpert:

does the number have to be exactly 3, 6 and 13??

 

I'm not sure about the exactitude as this is still gambling and not a defacto rule but my guess is that I'll follow the general intention of the theory and give it a .5 margin of error as many books have many lines and yours will be dif from mine...especially as my book helps dogs by juicing the fav lines.

 
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Posted: #9
One major thing to evaluate is if your research concerning those numbers is based on the opening or the closing line.

Its sounded like you meant the opening line, because you said "Vegas has no strong opinion of where to place the line" but then it sounded like you meant the closing line because you pointed out to watch for tonight games because there are some that are close to the number, but not there quite, so that would already factor in the money put on the/against these numbers.

Maybe you can give us more info on that.

 
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Posted: #10
thanks for the imput.  when packersbackers put me on to this trend his statement was to watch for these lines as they don't move much throughout the day, so watch opening and then movement...however, most lines move according to action so there is no definite. 
 
IMO watch for spreads within a .5 variance from the desired 3,6 or 13 and monitor until tip off to see if the line is still within the .5 either way and then expect the dog to pay. 
 
My expectation based on the past month is no lower than 70%...quite high I know but this is what I've been seeing. 
 
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Posted: #11
    About the 3/6/13 theory. On Feb.5 Boston was a road dog which closed at +3, they covered.On the 1st, N.J. covered as a -3.
    On Feb.4th Houston+Minn. closed at 6 and it was a push. Prior to that on Jan. 29 N.J. covered as a 6 pt. favorite.
     And on Feb.2nd, Denver covered as a 13 point favorite. These are ALL closing lines on the Vegas number, and I live a mile from the closest casino. Don't think I'd bank on that theory.
 
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by VegasSwami:

    About the 3/6/13 theory. On Feb.5 Boston was a road dog which closed at +3, they covered.On the 1st, N.J. covered as a -3.
    On Feb.4th Houston+Minn. closed at 6 and it was a push. Prior to that on Jan. 29 N.J. covered as a 6 pt. favorite.
     And on Feb.2nd, Denver covered as a 13 point favorite. These are ALL closing lines on the Vegas number, and I live a mile from the closest casino. Don't think I'd bank on that theory.
 
this theory is based on ROAD DOG only, isnt it!
 
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Posted: #13
Yes, this Phredlocks explains his theory above. I'm only saying road dogs at these numbers DON'T always cover.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by VegasSwami:

    About the 3/6/13 theory. On Feb.5 Boston was a road dog which closed at +3, they covered.On the 1st, N.J. covered as a -3.
    On Feb.4th Houston+Minn. closed at 6 and it was a push. Prior to that on Jan. 29 N.J. covered as a 6 pt. favorite.
     And on Feb.2nd, Denver covered as a 13 point favorite. These are ALL closing lines on the Vegas number, and I live a mile from the closest casino. Don't think I'd bank on that theory.
 

feb 2nd only place applicable NY covered +3

feb 3rd none apply

feb 4th NO blown out but Denver covered +3

feb 5th Celts cover +3 at Cle

feb 6th Indy, Utah, NO win SU at +3, +6 and Cle covered +6

last night Chi won su as 13 pt dogs

 

these games were all at 3,6 or 13 at times when I capped them.  lines fluctuated which makes it a pain but to me worth the pain.

 

tonight Seattle has dropped to 12, Memphis to 12.5 and Cleaveland is up to 3.5

I might stay away from Cleaveland because they are an anomoly as they rely so heavily on one player and he hurt his finger last night and missing two big men.  Still on Memphis and definitely Seattle.  Start with the trend and cap accordingly!

 
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Posted: #15
does anyone have a link where you can find opening and closing lines to games?  if so i will go back and check each day for 3,6,13 away dogs and let everyone know what its hitting....
 
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Posted: #16
I guess that the opening line would have to be 3, 6 or 13, right?
 
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Posted: #17

If you go by opening number then the only bet tonight according to covers would be MEM +13 @ DAL

 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by jimmysalas:

If you go by opening number then the only bet tonight according to covers would be MEM +13 @ DAL


Thanks.
 
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Posted: #19
nice jimmy, I'm glad I started this because you guys have influenced me
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by VegasSwami:

Yes, this Phredlocks explains his theory above. I'm only saying road dogs at these numbers DON'T always cover.
HE SAID 70%. to me, its an impressive odd.
 
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Posted: #23
believe it
 
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Posted: #24
Does the 3,6, and 13 points mean the odds when they are opened? Or the odds closing before a game?
 
 
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Posted: #25
to my knowledge the road dog as to open at 3/6/13 and cannot deviate more than 0.5 either way

chicago no longer applies
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