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How to play the HEAT/BULLS series

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Posted: #1
Fact:
  • The current price for HEAT to win: Heat Series Money Line -200
  • Bulls has home field advantage (4 games will be played in Chicago)

Prediction:
  • The Bulls will between 1-3 games at HOME
  • The HEAT will win the series

Strategy:
  • Risking 10 units to win 5 unit taking the HEAT for the whole series
  • Taking the Bulls ML for every home game (risking 5 units). I think the price will be cheap for Bulls ML
  • Do not bet on the game when it is played in Miami
Potential outcome:
  • If the Bulls win the series, most likely they will win 3 or 4 games at HOME. You will still make money.
  • If the HEAT sweep, you might be at worst make even because you will lose the Bulls bet but will win the series bet. I do not see a sweep here.
  • The only way to lose large is when the Bulls win the series, and the HEAT win in Chicago and the Bulls win games in Miami which I also think very unlikely.

Good luck.



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Posted: #2
This is just so awful on so many levels, your bookie must love it when you call in shit like this. He looks at his sidekick and says, "This is the reason I book bets, listen to what this guy just did"
 
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Posted: #3
the theory is interesting. I like it but i would definitely laugh my ass off if worse comes to worse, haha!
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:

Fact:
  • The current price for HEAT to win: Heat Series Money Line -200
  • Bulls has home field advantage (4 games will be played in Chicago)

Prediction:
  • The Bulls will between 1-3 games at HOME
  • The HEAT will win the series

Strategy:
  • Risking 10 units to win 5 unit taking the HEAT for the whole series
  • Taking the Bulls ML for every home game (risking 5 units). I think the price will be cheap for Bulls ML
  • Do not bet on the game when it is played in Miami
Potential outcome:
  • If the Bulls win the series, most likely they will win 3 or 4 games at HOME. You will still make money.
  • If the HEAT sweep, you might be at worst make even because you will lose the Bulls bet but will win the series bet. I do not see a sweep here.
  • The only way to lose large is when the Bulls win the series, and the HEAT win in Chicago and the Bulls win games in Miami which I also think very unlikely.

Good luck.



Like the insight- just don't agree with the outcome. Why does everyone think that a team that went 0-3 against the Bulls in the regular season is a shoe-in?
 
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Posted: #5
Are you risking 5 units on the Bulls on *each* home game, or a total of 5 units, and if so, how much on each game when you won't know how many home games there will be?  You gotta be more specific to analyze this.
 
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Posted: #6
Here it is:

Heat Series Money Line -200 (2000 to win 1000)

Game-1 (Chicago @ HOME)

Chicago Bulls Money Line -125 (500 to win 400)

I will update this through out the series and see how we are doing.
This thread will only track the played based on the plan above. I might still make separate plays outside of this.

GL to all


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Posted: #7

and people are agreeing with this.

Yeesh, I need to stop betting and just be a bookie

 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by IPartyALOT:

and people are agreeing with this.

Yeesh, I need to stop betting and just be a bookie



Before talking about becoming a bookie, let admit that you are a rookie


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Posted: #9

Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:



Before talking about becoming a bookie, let admit that you are a rookie


 

Yep, Im the rookie.

 

 

GL to you

 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by The_Ace:

the theory is interesting. I like it but i would definitely laugh my ass off if worse comes to worse, haha!


I would laugh it off too. Anything could happens. I am just sharing my strategy on how to hedge the bets.


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Posted: #11

Hedging is a bad idea if youre looking to maximise profit, its been proven over and over, thats why I was saying this is a bad strategy.

I dont wanna troll your thread but its just not a good idea, no matter how sarcastic and arrogant you wanna act and brag over a -EV play.

 

GL though  

 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:

Here it is:

Heat Series Money Line -200 (2000 to win 1000)

Game-1 (Chicago @ HOME)

Chicago Bulls Money Line -125 (500 to win 400)

I will update this through out the series and see how we are doing.
This thread will only track the played based on the plan above. I might still make separate plays outside of this.

GL to all




Laying chalk on everything and then hedging back is usually not a very profitable formula.  You're going to need to thread the needle to squeak out a profit and if things go wrong (road teams winning) they could go very wrong.

That said, I tend to think the home teams will dominate the series, so I agree in that sense, I just wouldn't play that angle the way you have.  You'd be better off just betting the home team ML every game.


 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by IPartyALOT:

Hedging is a bad idea if youre looking to maximise profit, its been proven over and over, thats why I was saying this is a bad strategy.

I dont wanna troll your thread but its just not a good idea, no matter how sarcastic and arrogant you wanna act and brag over a -EV play.

 

GL though  



Generally an accurate statement because you're laying extra chalk going both ways.  Especially -200 series.  That's a big chalk number.

He'll win if the home teams dominate the series, but even in winning he won't do as well as he could have if he'd just stick to game ML's.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:

Fact:
  • The current price for HEAT to win: Heat Series Money Line -200
  • Bulls has home field advantage (4 games will be played in Chicago)

Prediction:
  • The Bulls will between 1-3 games at HOME
  • The HEAT will win the series

Strategy:
  • Risking 10 units to win 5 unit taking the HEAT for the whole series
  • Taking the Bulls ML for every home game (risking 5 units). I think the price will be cheap for Bulls ML
  • Do not bet on the game when it is played in Miami
Potential outcome:
  • If the Bulls win the series, most likely they will win 3 or 4 games at HOME. You will still make money.
  • If the HEAT sweep, you might be at worst make even because you will lose the Bulls bet but will win the series bet. I do not see a sweep here.
  • The only way to lose large is when the Bulls win the series, and the HEAT win in Chicago and the Bulls win games in Miami which I also think very unlikely.


Good luck.



not a fact, we dont know if 4 WILL be played in chicago, what if chicago win in 5 or 6 or heat win in 6 and so on and so forth..

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by IPartyALOT:

Hedging is a bad idea if youre looking to maximise profit, its been proven over and over, thats why I was saying this is a bad strategy.

I dont wanna troll your thread but its just not a good idea, no matter how sarcastic and arrogant you wanna act and brag over a -EV play.

 

GL though  

I agree..

 
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Posted: #16
Championship teams find ways to win on the road, and the heat and bulls are great defensive teams and as the old saying goes 'defense travels' meaning defense is what wins games on the road... This wont be a series where each team wins all their games on the road that is for sure..
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by IPartyALOT:

Hedging is a bad idea if youre looking to maximise profit, its been proven over and over, thats why I was saying this is a bad strategy.

I dont wanna troll your thread but its just not a good idea, no matter how sarcastic and arrogant you wanna act and brag over a -EV play.

 

GL though  



IPartyALOT, thanks! and I understand your good intention here.
I normally would not do this and I haven't go for it thought out this playoffs

This is an interesting situation that the Bulls will be a small FAV at home and the HEAT will be a big FAV at home. I think the HOME team will win most of the game in this series but I do not want to lay the juice (or points) when the HEAT is playing at HOME.

Let see how this turns out.


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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by depeche2:



Laying chalk on everything and then hedging back is usually not a very profitable formula.  You're going to need to thread the needle to squeak out a profit and if things go wrong (road teams winning) they could go very wrong.

That said, I tend to think the home teams will dominate the series, so I agree in that sense, I just wouldn't play that angle the way you have.  You'd be better off just betting the home team ML every game.




I have the same thought about the home team dominate the series but I do not want to lay the ML juice when the HEAT is playing at HOME so I just take the HEAT to win the series as Hedging


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Posted: #19
This is how you play the series... TAKE THE BULLS +160.
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by bmacattack:

This is how you play the series... TAKE THE BULLS +160.


I actually like that but that is another story altogether.
I am rooting for the Bulls to win it all because I hate Bosh and Le Blow. I like Wade for his strong will and determination. He might play Rose very tough.


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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:



I actually like that but that is another story altogether.
I am rooting for the Bulls to win it all because I hate Bosh and Le Blow. I like Wade for his strong will and determination. He might play Rose very tough.


Right on. We're on the same page, though Wade is a great talent, with all respect I really think he, at least eventually, won't be able to keep up with D. Rose if he is gonna try to stay with him.
I'm really thinking the Bulls are not going to focus on Derek as much as they have had too. Gonna be a really fun series. Although I admit I am a devout homer, I'm very happy to get the Bulls at +money...
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:

Championship teams find ways to win on the road, and the heat and bulls are great defensive teams and as the old saying goes 'defense travels' meaning defense is what wins games on the road... This wont be a series where each team wins all their games on the road that is for sure..


The last time the Bulls were in the ECF they won in 7 with each team winning its home games (Bulls/Pacers '98).

I also recall SA winning the Finals in '05 in 7 games where all home teams won.

Those are just off the top of my head, I'm sure there are a bunch more.  It definitely can happen.
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:

Fact:
  • The current price for HEAT to win: Heat Series Money Line -200
  • Bulls has home field advantage (4 games will be played in Chicago)

Prediction:
  • The Bulls will between 1-3 games at HOME
  • The HEAT will win the series

Strategy:
  • Risking 10 units to win 5 unit taking the HEAT for the whole series
  • Taking the Bulls ML for every home game (risking 5 units). I think the price will be cheap for Bulls ML
  • Do not bet on the game when it is played in Miami
Potential outcome:
  • If the Bulls win the series, most likely they will win 3 or 4 games at HOME. You will still make money.
  • If the HEAT sweep, you might be at worst make even because you will lose the Bulls bet but will win the series bet. I do not see a sweep here.
  • The only way to lose large is when the Bulls win the series, and the HEAT win in Chicago and the Bulls win games in Miami which I also think very unlikely.


Good luck.



Oh there are 2/7 games at home too? really? everyone know if they're not get 4Gs at home then it's be 3Gs

 
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Posted: #24
If Tim plays i will bet Miami in each and every game.

They will win all. You bet.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by depeche2:



The last time the Bulls were in the ECF they won in 7 with each team winning its home games (Bulls/Pacers '98).

I also recall SA winning the Finals in '05 in 7 games where all home teams won.

Those are just off the top of my head, I'm sure there are a bunch more.  It definitely can happen.


I would also that the home team winning every game according to the odds is like a 25-1 shot.  I think it's a pretty good deal actually.

Personally I think the best bets are the Bulls at home at basically a pkem.  Take them both Games 1 and 2.  Much better chance you go 2-0 than 0-2.
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