I know, I know, I said I was laying off the NBA but I can't pass up this one: Denver @ Orlando

Question

Nuggets tomorrow night at Orlando. Line just opened at my book at -2.5 and it went to -3.5 in minutes

I got it at -2.5 for 2.5 units. I like this line anywhere up to -5 (no more). If you can get it, get it.

The Nuggets have not played great thus far, but they were never going to beat the Pelicans last night. But I just could not back the Putrid Pelicans after there complete no-show against the Warriors. But we are not going to make the same mistake twice. Now it was the Nuggets who pulled a no-show on national TV. And they were called out by their coach afterward who ripped into them in the locker room and to the media.

Now the Nuggets have dropped 2 in a row (after losing to the Mavs in a back-to-back situation where they traveled to CA then back to Denver, so no shame in losing that one), and this should be a bounce back spot against an Orlando team that I expect to go all out tonight against the Bucks. If Denver can't take advantage of this spot to get a much needed win, then they are in real trouble. As an added bonus, the game is on NBA TV, which should give the Nuggets more incentive, since the last time they were on TV, they stunk up the joint.

Good luck

begginerboy · Answer

Nuggets tomorrow night at Orlando. Line just opened at my book at -2.5 and it went to -3.5 in minutes

I got it at -2.5 for 2.5 units. I like this line anywhere up to -5 (no more). If you can get it, get it.

The Nuggets have not played great thus far, but they were never going to beat the Pelicans last night. But I just could not back the Putrid Pelicans after there complete no-show against the Warriors. But we are not going to make the same mistake twice. Now it was the Nuggets who pulled a no-show on national TV. And they were called out by their coach afterward who ripped into them in the locker room and to the media.

Now the Nuggets have dropped 2 in a row (after losing to the Mavs in a back-to-back situation where they traveled to CA then back to Denver, so no shame in losing that one), and this should be a bounce back spot against an Orlando team that I expect to go all out tonight against the Bucks. If Denver can't take advantage of this spot to get a much needed win, then they are in real trouble. As an added bonus, the game is on NBA TV, which should give the Nuggets more incentive, since the last time they were on TV, they stunk up the joint.

Good luck

BallingLikeNE · Answer

No Spurs tonight? Would love to join you and lock in DEN at the lowest line possible but my book doesn&#x2019;t have tomorrow&#x2019;s lines out yet

begginerboy · Answer

If Curry was playing, I would. But I&#x27;m not sure what the mood of the spurs will be tonight after their loss and going against a team they can beat by 30. Pop and Kerr have a history, and not sure if Pop will kick Kerr while he is down. I&#x27;ve decided that I&#x27;m only betting games where I see a strong psychological angle, and this ain&#x27;t one of them. Look at the Niners last night, allowing a 90 yard td play at the end to wreck the cover. Why, 1) thinking they had the game in the bag they started looking ahead to Seattle and 2) they were no particularly motivated to make a statement against Arizona (a team no one expects much from).

MoreGeezer · Answer

I hope you bet on lac yesterday bb.Actually i expected a write up from you or scal about the game,it had a lot on it to be written about.Maybe i ll start doing it too.

MoreGeezer · Answer

anyway i like this,thank you very much.Put half a unit on it.Let&#x27;s hope it goes!

begginerboy · Answer

I like that game, but the line (-5) was too close for me (especially with a rested Spurs team). Only way I would have bet would be to tease it with the Niners, which I wanted to do for big units all week, but the Niner line went from 9.5 to 10 by the time I could get the Clippers, which means in order to tease the Niners to -2.5 and the Clippers to pickem I would have had to bet 1.5 units to win 1. So I decided against it. As it turned out, both games were close and the tease made sense.But I did not pull the trigger.

begginerboy · Answer

P.S. Scal is banned. He is not on covers anymore :(

BallingLikeNE · Answer

BB - that last AZ td killed me. I had under 21 second half.

If figure the Niners would be content with running the ball since they had a 14 point lead at halftime. I also figure the Niners defense would basically shut down the Cardinals or at least make it difficult for them to score - nope!

BallingLikeNE · Answer

Scal - if you&#x2019;re reading this. I suggest you create a new username and get back on here buddy

begginerboy · Answer

This is the major reason we lost that bet (he went out in the 3rd quarter):&#xD;&#xA;  The loss of Alexander is a huge blow for San Franicsco. The &#xD;&#xA;linebacker was a big presence on the field and was essential in the &#xD;&#xA;49ers defense&#x27;s 2019 success.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;  Alexander will likely undergo season-ending surgery next week according to the team.

brettcards · Answer

What&#x2019;s your sense on Bucks vs Magic tonight? Was loving the Bucks coming off a loss and knowing what they did off a loss last year - but after your write up, seems like you&#x2019;re leaning magic on them giving it all tonight.Might just have to wait until tomorrow now.

begginerboy · Answer

I would take the bucks if they were not playing the Raptors tomorrow. Bucks are a much better team than Orlando, but the look-ahead makes it a no play.

BallingLikeNE · Answer

With the lost of Alexander, I would assume this changes things as far as you wanting to take the Niners for 10x against the Seahawks?

begginerboy · Answer

Best laid plans. I can&#x27;t frikin tell you how many of these possible future bets have been ruined for me because of unforeseen crap happening. It never fails. The look ahead line was SF -6. Wonder what it will be now? I imagine it depends on how Seattle plays. Still like the Niners, but laying 6 without the starting middle linebacker against Wilson? I don&#x27;t think so. Maybe a unit at most at 6. If you look at Seattle&#x27;s record the last several years on the road, they rarely lose by 7 or more. It&#x27;s always tight. But before the Alexander injury, I liked them for 10 units (especially after last night&#x27;s no show on defense).

davemsh · Answer

&#xA; &#xA;Kwon Alexander is not even their best linebacker....Not a big loss for that team...guys are injured all the time in the league...Next guy steps up.. Fred Warner has been their best linebacker this season....

begginerboy · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by davemsh]  Best laid plans. I can&#x27;t frikin tell you how many of these possible future bets have been ruined for me because of unforeseen crap happening. It never fails. The look ahead line was SF -6. Wonder what it will be now? I imagine it depends on how Seattle plays. Still like the Niners, but laying 6 without the starting middle linebacker against Wilson? I don&#x27;t think so. Maybe a unit at most at 6. If you look at Seattle&#x27;s record the last several years on the road, they rarely lose by 7 or more. It&#x27;s always tight. But before the Alexander injury, I liked them for 10 units (especially after last night&#x27;s no show on defense).&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Kwon Alexander is not even their best linebacker....Not a big loss for that team...guys are injured all the time in the league...Next guy steps up.. Fred Warner has been their best linebacker this season....  [/Quote]He is the second best LB against the pass in the entire NFL! Only Jamie Collins of the Pats is rated higher.

davemsh · Answer

&#xA; &#xA;There will be not be a drop off with him out.... The DL is what makes that defense.. the secondary is average IMO and same with the linebackers and they are a product of the DL...Now if Buckner or Bosa is out..then you will see a drop off....Teams have to Double team one of them or keep a back in to chip Bosa..

BallingLikeNE · Answer

BB - do you still like this play even though the Magic got blown out by the Bucks yesterday?

GTD · Answer

Like the pick...hopefully Barton is back or they add some other guys on the bench cause they really looked bad last game

begginerboy · Answer

Good question. Been thinking about it for while. Last nights game did not go as expected. The a hole magic pulled a no show and were called out By their coach. So now we have two teams coming off ugly losses and this is also a revenge game for the magic who lost in overtime at home last year. Denver still has more talent and should win, but considering how things went down last night I&#x27;m reducing this bet to half the amount. So my recommendation is one unit only on the nuggets.But I am adding a unit to the Bucks -5 for playoff revenge.

begginerboy · Answer

Line holding steady at -4 is concerning considering the fact that 80% of the public is on Denver. Yesterday's performance by the putrid magic really changed the dynamics of this one. Should be a war until the end.

Really like both LA teams tomorrow.

Clippers -4

Lakers pickem

Both teams are much better than their opponents. Clippers looking for revenge and LBJ always gives max effort against SA, just as he does with Dallas and Warriors. All teams that beat him in the finals.

begginerboy · Answer

Sorry, fellas. I knew it would be a war tonight after what the bucks did to the magic last night. Bucks blew them out early because they had to be ready for the raptors tonight. That was the tell tale sign that the Raps game was big for them. Which is why added the bucks as a play tonight. If you got the Nuggets early, like I did, before the line got to 4 than you covered.

begginerboy · Answer

Then^

BallingLikeNE · Answer

BB - I layed off the Nuggets due to your updates but I did join you and had Bucks whole game -6

I know, I know, I said I was laying off the NBA but I can't pass up this one: Denver @ Orlando

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