Posted:
#1
This thread wasn't started to endorse a play on the Miami Heat -7 tonight (that's your call), but since we're all having so much fun either following the trend or trying to fade it (d'oh), let's take a closer look at it.
Six of the Heat's bounceback blowout double-digit wins happened during the final three months of the regular season while the other six have obviously happened during the playoffs. We already know that the Heat covered all 12 games. What isn't widely known is that the Heat went just 7-5 ATS in the 1st halves while going a perfect 12-0 ATS in the 2nd halves. In half of the games, the Heat built a large halftime lead of at least 14 points:
66-44 at Sacramento
52-38 at Golden State
60-43 at New Orleans
55-41 vs. Chicago
70-56 at Indiana
52-37 vs. Indiana
In the other six games, the Heat were either losing, tied, or leading by no more than 5 points at the half:
49-49 at Brooklyn
losing 50-44 at Toronto
48-45 at Charlotte
losing 44-40 vs. Indiana
50-45 vs. San Antonio
49-49 at San Antonio
In the 6 games in which the Heat built halftime leads of 14+ points, these were the margins by which they covered the 2nd half lines:
8.5 at Sacramento (getting +1.5 and winning 62-55)
5 at Golden State (getting +2 and winning 40-37)
2.5 at New Orleans (getting a half point and winning 48-46)
19.5 vs. Chicago (laying -3.5 and winning 60-37)
8 at Indiana (getting +4 and winning 44-40)
8 vs. Indiana (getting +1 and winning 47-39)
That's not bad at all, right? In fact, it's pretty good considering they could have taken it easy having already established a huge lead by halftime. Now check out what the Heat have done in the games in which things were still very much undecided at halftime. Here are the margins by which the Heat covered the 2nd half lines of those 6 games:
18 at Brooklyn (laying -2 and winning 56-36)
16 at Toronto (laying -5 and winning 56-35)
8 at Charlotte (laying -1 and winning 41-34.....LeBron, Wade, and Allen all sat out this entire game)
8 vs. Indiana (laying -7 and winning 50-35)
11.5 vs. San Antonio (laying -2.5 and winning 53-39)
14.5 at San Antonio (laying 1.5 and winning 60-44)
Now this is really impressive. Throwing out the meaningless April 5th game at Charlotte in which the Big Two didn't play, the Heat won each of these five 2nd halves by at least 14 points! That means in all 11 bounceback games since January 12th in which LeBron played, the Heat won one half or the other by at least 14 points.
What I'm getting at here is that if the Heat find themselves in a tight one tonight in the 1st half, you should know what to do at halftime - UNLOAD. Or, another excellent idea is to lay the 4 points with the Heat in the 1st half. If you win, great. You can thank me later. If you don't, even if you push, then come over the top at halftime with a bet that is at least twice as large. The trend tells us that you won't get screwed on both bets. In fact, it tells us that if you lose or push the 1st half bet, you will not only win the 2nd half bet, but you will win it with ease.
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<------- unable to beat them and thus now joining them
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