Interesting read about link between sleep and performance

ESPN enlisted multiple experts, including sleep doctors who consult with NBA teams. In partnership with ESPN Stats & Information, they ranked the season's 488 back-to-back games on several factors, such as whether the game is home or away, the time elapsed between tip-offs (including hours lost from flying east), how rested the opponent is from play or travel and whether it's part of a longer run of four games in five nights, or five games in seven. The result: There are 42 games in the 2016-17 season in which the schedule creates a distinct competitive disadvantage for one team.

Cheri Mah, sleep consultant to NBA teams and a research fellow at the UC San Francisco Human Performance Center, helped construct the formula. Last season, using a similar formula, her system correctly picked losers with up to 78 percent accuracy. Those predictions were blind to the quality of the teams -- showing how strong the impact of back-to-back games is. "The reality is, if I could craft an NBA season," Mah says, "it would not have back-to-backs."

From Doc Rivers:  "I contemplated keeping the team home, literally. We knew we were walking into getting our ass kicked, and that's what happened.  What is it they say?  If you have less than five hours of sleep for three days in a row, your reactions are that of a legally drunk driver?  We've seen that with our own eyes."

1. 11/29: Hornets (Pistons): 8.5 Mah score
Leaving Memphis, the Hornets lose an hour flying home-and less than 24 hours later cap a four games-in-five-days stretch vs. the rough-and-tumble Pistons.

2. 12/3: Lakers (Grizzlies): 8.5
A back-to-back for LA starting in Toronto means a late trip through customs and no rest. Even tougher: This next game is the fourth in five nights-all on the road.

3. 12/6: Bulls (vs. Pistons): 9.5
Chicago, in the closest thing to certain schedule defeat, loses an hour in the air heading to Detroit -- plus the haul toward Auburn Hills, Michigan -- after playing Portland at home, to cap a four-in-five run.

4. 12/11: Warriors (Timberwolves): 8.5
This is a genuine test for Golden State, its fourth road game in five nights after playing in Memphis the night before. Plus: an early 6 p.m. start vs. a young team.

5. 2/4: Denver (Spurs): 8.5
After facing Milwaukee at home, Denver loses an hour heading East, only to cap a four-in-five against the Spurs, who have a one-day recovery edge.

6. 3/11: Wizards (Trail Blazers): 8.5
Capping not just a four-in-five but a five-in-seven stretch, this road game comes against a Blazers team that will have a one-day rest advantage.

7. 3/15: Trail Blazers (Spurs): 8.5
For Portland, this marks the third road game of a five-game trip, the fourth game in five nights, the fifth in seven ... and it's against the Spurs. Ouch.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/17790282/the-nba-grueling-schedule-cause-loss

I will be watching this very, very closely.

Great contribution mate. This kind of posts really helps!

Surely the lines account for this?

spreads and line account for this.  the 78% is based on straight up money line and the 78% means nothing without the odds.

 good info thx. would be curious to see how much age and stage of schedule (later in the year likely more prevelant) played a factor.

I've read studies on this subject and started payibg attention to this last season and there is something to it. Great post. Oddsmakers will  attempt to compensate for this but what you have to remember is one of oddsmakers biggest factors, the biggest factor, is public perception. And who can't figure something into the line that most of the public knows nothing about. Any compensation at all can turn into over compensation and leave them open to lopsided action. It's not an exact science, and it doesn't factor into every game that fits rhe criteria but it's just one more thing as a capper to be aware of.

The real questions : Anybody could list the game and the MAH factor to see how it goes through the season ?

I've identified all the games.  For anyone who bothered to follow the link and look at the graph, 3 stars designates the 7 games that were called out with a MAH score of 8.5-9.5. 

2 stars for the 11 games with a MAH score of 7.5-8.

1 star for the 24 games with a MAH score of 6.5-7. 

Just to be clear, the starred team is the team at a DISADVANTAGE. (FADE).  This could be useful info for player props too in my opinion.

10/27: BOS*@CHI

11/2: PHI*@CHA

11/6: SAC*@TOR

11/10: CHI*@MIA

11/19: DAL*@ORL

11/23: POR**@CLE

11/26: DET@OKC*

11/29: LAL*@NO

11/29: DET@CHA***

12/3: LAL***@MEM

12/6: PHI*@MEM

12/6: CHI***@DET

12/10: DEN@ORL**

12/10: MIA**@CHI

12/11: GS***@MIN

12/14: OKC**@UTA

12/17: LAL*@CLE

12/17: HOU*@MIN

12/20: IND*@NYK

12/30: DAL**@GS

12/31: LAC**@OKC

1/3: UTAH*@BOS

1/3: WAS*@DAL

1/13: DET*@UTAH

1/21: HOU**@MEM

1/22: DEN**@MIN

1/24: UTAH**@DEN

1/25: TOR*@MEM

2/4: DEN***@SAS

3/9 :LAC*@MEM

3/11: WAS***@POR

3/15: NO*@MIA

3/15: POR***@SAS

3/16: LAC*@DEN

3/16: MEM*@ATL

3/31: DET**@MIL

4/5: CLE*@BOS

4/5: DAL*@LAC

4/5: TOR*@DET

4/6 :BOS*@ATL

4/7: MIN*@UTAH

4/8: LAC@SAS**

I wouldn't mind playing this out for the entire NBA season.  I'm open to suggestions on units to wager, moneyline, ats, etc.  All input is appreciated.

This is great info and what covers is suppose to be about. Helping each other find any advantage to beat the house. Great work. It is appreciated.

I remember last seasons diamond head classic where the New Mexico st players came to my work and said their plans were to go out and party, even though they had a 3rd place game the next day. They got blown out by 25+. Only time I ever got that close to talking with a team and unloading.

Wow thanks for this

BOS*@CHI

Wow.  This comes very early in the season.  Chicago hasn't even played a game yet.  It is their home opener however, so we got that going for us.  Boston travels east to west, gaining an hour crossing one time zone.  Tip off time between this game and last for the Celtics is 25 hours (24+1).  Fatigue certainly isn't a factor at this early juncture.  Chicago does have what appears to be a rugged front line (by today's standards) in Lopez and Gibson.  Good depth.  Solid mix of vets and young bucks.  Slight line movement showing money coming in on the Bulls.

I've decided to play the games as follows:  1/2 unit on the one star games, 1 unit on the 2 star games, and 2 units on the 3 star games.  I will track the outcomes of all the games ATS and SU.  My personal plays will be a mix of ATS and SU since I can't come up with a hard line rule in that regard. (suggestions?)  Lines will be based on what's available at my book.

Line: ATS:  CHI +1 (-110) SU: EVEN
The play: Bulls SU
Risk: .5 to win .5
Starting bankroll: 50 units
YTD: 49.5

Um they travelled east to east broklyn to chicago bro but goodluck!

Boston to chicago sorry

I like that Marcus Smart will be out tonight.  Last night the Nets 2nd unit was able to get them back in the game briefly.  Smart is an early candidate for 6th man.  Hopefully the Bulls can capitalize too.

Line has moved all the way to Bulls -1.5.  I would've had a very hard time laying points here with the Bulls or taking less than even odds on the moneyline (currently -125).

Line: ATS:  CHI +1 (-110) W  SU: EVEN W
The play: Bulls SU W
Risk: .5 to win .5

Off to a good start.  I was a little apprehensive here because I have a hard time backing Rondo, but I absolutely love D-Wade.  Of course Rondo hadn't been relevant since the Bush administration, so I might be forced to reevaluate.  Wade has been working on that 3pt shot.  One of my favorite players of all time.  Did I mention I'm a Wade fan?  Bulls are an intriguing team.  This set up nice with the Wade homecoming angle.

Celtics really miss Marcus Smart, and to a lesser degree, Olynyk.  That 2nd unit has no explosiveness.  Depth, or lack there of, is certainly an added element to this "system."  Something to keep an eye on while Smart is out.  11/3 at Cleveland might be a game to circle.  They play the Bulls at home 11/2, then 24 hours later tip off in the Q.  That will be one to jump on as soon as the line comes out.  Not one of our Mah games, but intriguing nonetheless.  If I do have any plays outside of the original 42 I'll add another line to track those games.

Overall YTD: ATS: 1-0  SU: 1-0
My plays YTD: ATS: 0-0  SU: 1-0

Starting bankroll: 50 units
YTD: 50.5

Best thread I've read here in over 10 years

Great thread

11/2: PHI*@CHA

Word is that the 76ers will rest Okafor tonight and Embiid tomorrow.  Embiid looks like a monster, so him missing our matchup is a plus, but how will it affect the line?  I hope they put up a fight tonight vs Orlando.  That drubbing vs the Hawks is gonna hurt our line for this game if they don't.  Gonna have to lay the points here as there will be no value playing the Hornets SU.  Jeremy Lamb is out with a tweaked hammy.  He's been nothing more than a guy with a small role off the bench.  I want this line as soon as it's available as there is no doubt the Hornets will get peppered with action at home vs the 76ers without Embiid. 

76ers will be playing at home tonight with a 7pm tipoff, then travel to Charlotte for a 7pm tipoff.  Charlotte last played the Celtics at home on 10/29.  From a rest vs no rest standpoint, which is what this "system" is predicated on, One team has a flight and 24hrs between tipoffs, while the other has slept in their own beds for an entire week (10/28 - 11/2).  I might step this up to a full unit play, depending on what number I get in at.

More to come tomorrow...

11/2: PHI*@CHA

The 76ers gave the Magic a run for their money, leading big at halftime, only to give up 41 in the 3rd and score only 14 in the 4th to lose a close one.  A bad turnover by Embiid and an unlucky bounce at the other end sealed their fate.

Rest is definitely a factor that coaches, books and bettors account for.  This was a known fact going in.  What we are hoping for is to identify the most advantageous of these situations to capitalize on.  I'm going to add a few more lines to track:  over/under and team totals for the MAH games.  I'm also going to track ATS, SU, O/U, and TT(fade team) results for the games before and after the MAH games.  Focusing on only the MAH games may leave us vulnerable to inflated lines, and perhaps some valuable information can be found in the games occurring before and after the MAH games.

I was hoping for a single digit spread in our MAH game as a result of this close contest.  Instead, I had a bit of sticker shock when it opened at 12.5.  It makes sense though.  Short rest for the 76ers, first road game, which comes on a back to back.  The hive should be rocking tonight.  After a disappointing home opening loss to Boston you can bet they want to get a W at home and put on a show for the crowd vs a lowly 76er squad.  Embiid, arguably Philly's best player, won't be playing tonight.  Okafor's defensive struggles are well documented.  I'm glad we are getting Okafor instead of Embiid.

Not thrilled to lay 13, but that's what we're gonna do.  I'm adding a 1st half play too.  13 is a big number, it isn't hard to imagine this getting backdoored in garbage time.  I'll track my 1st half plays only, not overall 1st half plays.

Line: ATS:  CHA -13 (-110) SU: -1200  O/U: 196  TT: 91.5 (PHI)
The play: Hornets -13
Risk: .5 to win .45
The play:  Hornets 1st half -7.5
Risk: .5 to win .45

Guys, I apologize if I'm a little bit all over the place.  The info that could be tracked goes on and on.  Once I get settled in it will be much easier to follow.  Before and after MAH game info, O/U, and TT updates soon to come...