Since 1991 there have been 92 elimination games in the NBA Playoffs (Game 5’s and Game 7’s). The home team had been favored in every one of them until Sunday where the Clippers are road favorites at Rockets (via @bigal_com and @ToddFuhrman).
First we need to look at quality of both teams.
Question is.... Has there ever been a case of a road team being so superior to the home team ?.....if we want to answer why the road team is favored.
Let's use point margin and SRS from basketball reference.
pt margin....................
Clippers 6.6
Rockets 3.4
Clippers by 3.2
SRS.......
Clippers 6.8
Rockets 3.82
Clippers by 2.98
I looked at every game 7 from 2000 to 2009, 31 in total, have not had time to look up-to last year, not a single road team can come remotely close to being as good as the Clippers are better than the Rockets.
Only 1 road team was even a small amount better, and yes they did win game 7.
And only 11 of the 31 home teams were this superior over their opponents.
Those 11 home teams are 11-0 in game 7 and they won by, get this, 5, 7, 10,12,15,18,19,20,21,21,34.
The median margin of victory was 18 pts. Ave is 16.5 pts.
OK , so it's about a 8 pt swing from home team to road team, looks like there is a very good reason the Clippers are favored.
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Quote Originally Posted by Enjoi:
Since 1991 there have been 92 elimination games in the NBA Playoffs (Game 5’s and Game 7’s). The home team had been favored in every one of them until Sunday where the Clippers are road favorites at Rockets (via @bigal_com and @ToddFuhrman).
First we need to look at quality of both teams.
Question is.... Has there ever been a case of a road team being so superior to the home team ?.....if we want to answer why the road team is favored.
Let's use point margin and SRS from basketball reference.
pt margin....................
Clippers 6.6
Rockets 3.4
Clippers by 3.2
SRS.......
Clippers 6.8
Rockets 3.82
Clippers by 2.98
I looked at every game 7 from 2000 to 2009, 31 in total, have not had time to look up-to last year, not a single road team can come remotely close to being as good as the Clippers are better than the Rockets.
Only 1 road team was even a small amount better, and yes they did win game 7.
And only 11 of the 31 home teams were this superior over their opponents.
Those 11 home teams are 11-0 in game 7 and they won by, get this, 5, 7, 10,12,15,18,19,20,21,21,34.
The median margin of victory was 18 pts. Ave is 16.5 pts.
OK , so it's about a 8 pt swing from home team to road team, looks like there is a very good reason the Clippers are favored.
see Lakers in game 7 in Sacramento WCF 2002-I believe they were small dogs but Chris Webber choked as usual...better team won in a very tough environment...
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see Lakers in game 7 in Sacramento WCF 2002-I believe they were small dogs but Chris Webber choked as usual...better team won in a very tough environment...
Question is.... Has there ever been a case of a road team being so superior to the home team ?.....if we want to answer why the road team is favored.
Let's use point margin and SRS from basketball reference.
pt margin....................
Clippers 6.6
Rockets 3.4
Clippers by 3.2
SRS.......
Clippers 6.8
Rockets 3.82
Clippers by 2.98
I looked at every game 7 from 2000 to 2009, 31 in total, have not had time to look up-to last year, not a single road team can come remotely close to being as good as the Clippers are better than the Rockets.
Only 1 road team was even a small amount better, and yes they did win game 7.
And only 11 of the 31 home teams were this superior over their opponents.
Those 11 home teams are 11-0 in game 7 and they won by, get this, 5, 7, 10,12,15,18,19,20,21,21,34.
The median margin of victory was 18 pts. Ave is 16.5 pts.
OK , so it's about a 8 pt swing from home team to road team, looks like there is a very good reason the Clippers are favored.
Thanks Claw. The eye test for me puts the Clippers above the Rockets but here it is on paper.
0
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
First we need to look at quality of both teams.
Question is.... Has there ever been a case of a road team being so superior to the home team ?.....if we want to answer why the road team is favored.
Let's use point margin and SRS from basketball reference.
pt margin....................
Clippers 6.6
Rockets 3.4
Clippers by 3.2
SRS.......
Clippers 6.8
Rockets 3.82
Clippers by 2.98
I looked at every game 7 from 2000 to 2009, 31 in total, have not had time to look up-to last year, not a single road team can come remotely close to being as good as the Clippers are better than the Rockets.
Only 1 road team was even a small amount better, and yes they did win game 7.
And only 11 of the 31 home teams were this superior over their opponents.
Those 11 home teams are 11-0 in game 7 and they won by, get this, 5, 7, 10,12,15,18,19,20,21,21,34.
The median margin of victory was 18 pts. Ave is 16.5 pts.
OK , so it's about a 8 pt swing from home team to road team, looks like there is a very good reason the Clippers are favored.
Thanks Claw. The eye test for me puts the Clippers above the Rockets but here it is on paper.
Wow that's an impressive stat going for the Rockets.
This game is bringing out so many great insights and stats.
I personally have the Clippers -1.5 as I believe they are hands down the better team here. The only thing that concerns me is their lack of depth and it has been rearing it's ugly head as of late. If they do indeed pull through to the conference finals than they would be a great fade against the Warriors. Back to back 7 game series will no doubt have an impact on this team who rely heavily on their starters. 16 points from the Clippers bench in game 6 is absolutely disgusting.
Bahhhhh ahhhhhhh Bahhhhh ahhhhhhhh
C what happends when u spit up in the air?!?
Losing looks good on u bros....
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Quote Originally Posted by Enjoi:
Wow that's an impressive stat going for the Rockets.
This game is bringing out so many great insights and stats.
I personally have the Clippers -1.5 as I believe they are hands down the better team here. The only thing that concerns me is their lack of depth and it has been rearing it's ugly head as of late. If they do indeed pull through to the conference finals than they would be a great fade against the Warriors. Back to back 7 game series will no doubt have an impact on this team who rely heavily on their starters. 16 points from the Clippers bench in game 6 is absolutely disgusting.
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