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Interesting take on totals tonight...

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Prospect
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Posted: #26
good info.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #27
So, the trend is still there but i did pick some of the wrong ones last night.  I went 3-2 on the selected unders. ALL 4 I did not pick hit the under.  So all 9 games were 7-2 to the under last night. Still a slight win for me, but disappointing since it obviously could have been so much better.  Some statistical info up to this point below:

TOTALS FOR EVERY GAME THIS YEAR
24 overs
40 unders (62.5 %)
1 push

TOTALS FOR EVERY GAME THE PAST 3 DAYS (when i first posted this theory)
9 overs
18 unders (66.7%)

SELECTED UNDERS I HAVE PLAYED OVER 3 DAYS
12-7(63.2%)

I will be looking at todays numbers in a bit and posting thoughts and plays later today.


 
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Posted: #28
Keep up to good work.
 
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Posted: #29
Don't have time to do analysis on the whole card before the first tipoff, but the early game is a play on the under.  Teams are a combined 1 over and 7 unders this year. Both teams have a historical reputation of being run and gun, but PHX has slowed it down considerably this year (partially a talent issue, partially a changing philosophy and partially nash playing through pain) and Mark Jackson is implementing a defensive philosophy in GS. Total is set at least 4 points too high and I would take the under even if it was down at 186.

GS/PHX UNDER 193

Will post thoughts on other games in a few more hours.

Best of luck.


 
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Posted: #30
Fuck... that was frustrating as hell. 14 points in the last 2 min of a game that was out of reach.  PUSH on 193.  Could've been worse i guess...
 
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Posted: #31
Ok, well after push on the early game - I am going to ride the trend a little further. It definitely has a shelf life and could end any day as Vegas adjusts.  I'm only excluding 2 of the remaining 9 from my personal plays.  SA/MINN and OKC/DAL for various reasons on both, but OKC/DAL will be an over play based on ref analysis and I will post that data in a little bit.  The SPurs game is a trap on the total i think, the teams are a combined 1 over and 6 unders (which sounds good) but the public has bet it down 7 points from 204. So, here is what i am rolling with in equal amounts but listed in order of strength...

1) MIL/DEN 198
2) WAS/BOS 187.5
3) NO/UTA 181
4) TOR/NYK 200.5
5) ORL/DET 184.5
6) ATL/MIA 195
7) IND/NJ 182

Good luck tonight.


 
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Posted: #32
Great work , Dirk !


DWade ;-)
 
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Posted: #33
 
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Posted: #34
GL 
 
 
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Posted: #35
Went 4-3-1 on selected unders last night. ALL games played went 5 unders, 4 overs and a push.  ALthough it has been small wins on 2 of the 4 days, this system has won all 4 days posted.  The facts so far...

FOR THE YEAR - EVERY GAME PLAYED
45 UNDERS (61.6%)
28 OVERS
2 PUSHES

ALL GAME THE PAST 4 DAYS (when this thread started)
23 UNDERS(63.9%)
13 OVERS
1 PUSH

SELECTED UNDERS OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS
16 UNDERS (61.5%)
10 OVERS
1 PUSH

I think the trend still has a couple more days left and even though yesterday was only a little above break even, it was very close to going 6-2 on selected and 7-3 overall.  I expect a little better than the 5-4-1 tonight.   I will be personally playing 5 of the 6, with the lone exclusion being the HOUs/LAL game - I just thing they get to running and score a ton of points tonight (205+), HOU in particular.  As for the other 5, i will be playing the top two are by far the strongest - ref info on those games to follow in that thread.  Ranked in order of strength.

1) CHAR/ CLE 189
2) ATL/ CHI 183
3) MIL/UTA 186
4) SAC/ MEM 190
5) POR/OKC 196

BEST OF LUCK.

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