Interesting take on totals tonight...

The league is leaning towards unders in this young season.  This will correct itself eventually but there is an opportunity for a short time.

Some facts for you...

38 games so far - 22 unders, 15 overs and a push (59.5%)

Of the teams on the card tonight (11 games, so 8 teams arent playing) - those teams have a combined 28 unders, 20 overs and 2 pushes. (58.3%).

IF you remove 2 games from the equation - DET/BOS (DET is 1-1 and BOS is 3ov and 0 under) as well as TOR /DAL (TOR is 1-1 and DAL is 3ov and 0 onder) then you remove 8 of the 20 overs for the year and only 2 of the 28 unders.  I hope this all makes sense - so in other words, if you look at only the other 9 games for tonight, then the cumulative totals results for those teams are 26 unders and only 12 overs (68.4%). 

Despite that, many totals for tonight are rising as we speak... some dramatically.  My theory is that there is a public misconception out there that games early in this shortened season will be higher scoring than normal as a rule, while in fact - they are not. Vegas, being what vegas is, is more than happy to take advantage of that as long as they can. Eventually, the sample will be large enough that if it is at a 58% under trend (or if it goes up even higher) for the whole league - they will adjust so the sharps dont kill them on it.  I think this trend is good for another 3-10 days depending on lots of variables.  Check history for any season as a whole (for any sport for that matter) and vegas will find a way to have it be pretty close to 50/50 over/under - anything over 52% either way for the season would be an extreme anomaly.

You obviously have to judge each game on its own merit individually, but i think there will be at least 7 and maybe 8 unders hit out of 11 games tonight.  Couple of ways for that to be useful - obviously you can pick and choose your spots, you can play small (1/2-1 unit plays)  on EVERY under and should come out well ahead of the 6-5 that will do just a little more than break even OR you can just use this as your mental tiebreaker on a total you are torn about (i.e. when in doubt, go under).

Best of luck.  I will have some other thoughts and probably a couple picks later before tipoffs.

good stuff man.  Thanks !!

So what unders do you like?

 

I like the NWO PHX under alot

I will be watching this system closely.

Yeah I totally agree! I have been pounding the Unders because of the lines. I only took 1 over and that was the Blazer game last night. Tonight I like the Bucks Under, Clippers Under, and Indy under. Leaning NOR under but will stay away. I think these teams might run tonight. Just a feeling!! Nice writeups! Makes sense. BOL

THe only three i really dont like are BOS/DET,  CHI/LAC and CLE/IND.  HOU/MEM i lean a little under, but am going to stay away... I will be playing the 7 below listed in order of strength (in my opinion). 

1) NJ/ATL 188
2) MIA/MINN 211
3) TOR/DAL 193 (yes this is one i excluded for the sake of making the under argument, but i feel pretty strongly it goes under)
4) ORL/CHAR 184
5) WAS/MIL 187.5
6) PHI/UTA 191
7) PHX/NO 185

I personally dont vary my bet amount often, so ill be betting them all equally even though i do see #1-3 as stronger than #4-7.  Even the other 4 are possibilities for sure - I just dont like them as much.  WE will see what happens on the 11 as a whole and my 7. Best of luck with whatever you guys play.

Mia/Minn avg score last yr was 219.5pts in 2 gms. There are a lot of points to be had in Minn. Minn avg home gm all last yr was 205pts in 41 gms. This yr 204. Hopefully the avg plays in tonights gm vs Miami.

One of us has a false # on that NJ game, hope it's me homie.... My book is showing open 175.5 and current 177.5...?

I'm startin to feel the same way

ANDY.... First off, excellent screen name - one of my top 5 movies of all time. Second, you are correct.... my bad. i have it at 178, so i guess my guy had a 1/2 pt better number.  Sorry for bad info, just a typo.

LOOK AT THAT HEAT GAME GO UUUUUUUUUUUUU... GOOD CALL DIRK, YOU DA MAN!

Thanks bro... glad you cashed it. First 7 games that are in the books has 5 unders. I have NO FUCKING IDEA where that 68 point 3rd quarter (and 123 point 2nd half) came from in the NJ game or it would look even a little better.

So, hopefully this helped some of you guys... I went 5-2 (71%) on my 7 unders, losing my #1 pick (I still cant figure out where that 123 pt 2nd half in NJ came from) and my #6 pick.   The 4 games i didnt include, were 2-2 - so unders were 7-4 overall last night which was about what i expected. Unders are now 29-19-1 for the year (60.4%) and as an interesting note, the one OT game this year still came in as an under, although it was not one of the 7 i played. I think this trend continues a few days longer and will post some stats, analysis and picks later today.

good thread!  will be interested to see where this goes.

I kind of have two theories and threads working - one based on the UNDERS and one based on ref tendencies. BOTH are working well, and i am following the UNDER trend in the early game (DEN/LAL under 198.5). Ill post some data for this trend again before the night games.

Best of luck.

Hit the lakers game... Unders for the year now 30-19-1 (61.2%). im 6-2 (75%) on selected unders today and last night and UNDERS for ALL games played last night and today are 8-4 (66%). 

Ive tried and tried to talk myself out of this, but i actually like all of the unders tonight. Unlike last night where i played 7 of 11, I will actually be putting money on all 6 tonight making 7 for the day. OF the remaining 6 games, the cumulative total outcomes for those 12 teams so far this season are 12 overs and 25 unders (67.5%). I still feel the totals are being set a bit high (in most cases by 2-3 pts) but this is a card that even if you lowered every total 2 points i would probably still play it the same way.  I am expecting 4-2 on the night games and hoping for 5-1. 

Great info bro .....I really like the Knicks under tonight..especially if Amar'e is out

GL and a Happy New Year

dirk, were you the one who did a write up on the DAL/OKC game with the ref trends etc?

It was DAL +5.5 and over.

but anyways, nice write up!

Thanks... Knicks are actually my strongest feel of the night.  I will play all 6 equally, but below is my order of strength for those interested.  The top 2 have strong ref tendencies also supporting the under.

1) SAC/NY 200
2) ATL/HOU 193
3) IND/DET 181
4) UTA/S.A. 195.5
5) PHX/OKC 201
6) PHI/GS 192

Good luck tonight.

PDA - Yes that was me - both covered (although as a mavs fan KD tore my heart out at the buzzer).  That was the 2nd and 3rd plays in my ref trend analysis.

and that was a very good one!  i followed and slammed that game.  thanks! 

hope to be reading more

Well, not the result I was hoping for last night going 3-3.... Still pulled a win on the day playing all 7 unders and going 4-3. That is 9-5 on selected unders the past 2 days and 11-7 on unders in all games.  Totals seem a little more in line today at first glance, but I will do my research during football and put some info out there before tipoffs.

Totals seem set a little more appropriately today, but I still feel everything will lean towards the unders and expect 6-3 out of all 9 games.  For the year, totals are 60% to the under (22 overs 33 unders 1 push). I will be playing 5 of them tonight for equal amounts, but ranked below in order of strength.

1) MINN/DAL 202
2) LAL/DEN 199
3) TOR/ORL 186
4) NO/SAC 182.5
5) CHAR/MIA 197.5

9-5 (64%) on selected unders the past 2 days.

Best of luck.