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I've never had a WRITE-UP for 3 games in one week in 8 years here. Tonight that changes. CAVS@NETS!!

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by GeneCam27:

SCAL be very cautious with the cavs tonight. As ive said in my other threads i only play the cavs on B2B and 2 days rest. I almost always FADE on 1 day rest. This team is notoriousky baaaaaaddd on 1 day rest. The previous successful wins you poibted out for the cavs were all of a B2B or 2 days rest. Surprisignly they play very well in B2Bs anf i oicked them to win SU as 10 point dogs against the knicks. 

Coupled with w brooklyn team who is playing better than any team i the league right now not named san antonio spurs coming of a couple of super close losses with the Cavs on ONE DAY REST after a comeback win... i gotta go the way other way tonight... usually right right tjere with you but cat trust the cavs in this spot like i did before
 

I don't mind rest/no rest issue/trends tonight.

They were on one day of rest against the atlantic leading raptors and beat them straight up.

Tonight is about fighting for a win. They must come to play and the books give us nine while they do so.

I'm taking the nine.
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

I'm tailing you Scal. Great writeup and the ER metaphor was out of this world. Do you, by chance, write for a living? I mean, you write the way most people walk or breathe, totally effortless. I just did a writeup on Dubs/Grizz in case you are interested. Not too excited about it but who can blame me after that Dallas game last night. It has been an awful (unlucky) two weeks but I'm hanging in there. 

I'm glad someone took notice of the metaphor!!

First I learned how to type. If you can't type well at a fast pace, you won't like to write (as pen and pencil are no longer an option). 

I'll pretty much guarantee I'm the quickest typist on this site.

Various coursework and continual reading of anything and everything has helped me write well. 

Type fast first. Write well second. 

Viola! I'm up at 4am writing this post (crazy but true). Working on three hours sleep today and I feel fine. 

It's almost like I'm a part of the Cavs roster with a 5th in 7. I could go 48 right now no problem!


 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Excellent analysis. I agree that Cleveland +9 is the correct side here.



Wow, back from the dead like the real CM Punk...
 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by ByTheBay:

Any thoughts for us on the Knicks this evening?

Too volatile a game to cap 
 
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Posted: #80
Scal and everyone good luck tonight-- It is true that the Cavs have been recently  covering but they also have in the past lost plenty of double digit games including an infamous blowout to the shorthanded Lakers. I have made money on Cleveland before but I will be staying away from this one-- I would rather take the Blazers plus 10.5 as part of a two team open teaser. And look patiently for game number two.

G A
 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by FiatLux4:

Scal you are my guy for sure and have made me bucket loads of money. With that said, it pains me to say that in my opinion, I believe you are on the wrong side. I had this line at 6/6.5 before looking and I feel that opening at 9.5 reeks.

Looking at some of their recent prior opening lines against superior teams to the Nets, we have:

3/12 @ Phoenix +7.5 
3/14 @ Golden State +9.5
3/16 @ LA Clippers +12.5
3/18     Miami +9
3/20     Oklahoma City +10
3/22     Houston +8

Now to further your point, they did cover all of those games except the Clippers. I also understand that the last three games in this example were at home and the line would be significantly higher if they were on the road.

However, I cannot say the line should be two points higher than the Suns would be or the same line the Warriors would get. Those are better teams in my mind no question. There has been plenty of time to adjust for the run the Cavs are on. The Nets simply aren't in the realm of the six above teams. Yet they get a line as if they are? 

You certainly have well illustrated how the line could be set this high. Certainly their home court streak is noteworthy. But it's not good enough for me to believe they are 9.5 points better. I just don't buy it. To me, this is begging for Cavs money. 

I don't like going against you in the least but this is the first time I most likely will be or be passing. Honestly, I hope I am wrong and you are right.

Cavs 5th in 7 is a major line mover in their favor (which is great for Cavs backers beacause I don't see it having much effect on their play). And now the line is moving down anyway.

And don't worry about what Vegas is begging for.

If you read my response to Bator in another thread, there is a spread world where Vegas and spreads reside and a real world where the teams actually play.

The real world always prevails over the spread world.

If you cap a game with real world analysis (as I did for 90% of my OP) that should always take precedence over "Vegas Knows."

I can assure you, they've begged for money many, many times on sides that have hit and crushed them.

Lakers thunder is a perfect example. That game opened at 11 and got to 13 and even 13.5 on some sites, pleading for Laker money. Result? Lakers not only covered but won outright.

The spread world and Vegas itself goes up in smoke if you cap a game correctly. 

The nine points is simply an imaginary cushion in a real world cap. Vegas doesn't exist beyond the court of play.

The Cavs will come to play tonight. They must. If they lose they may drop 4 games back of the 8th spot with 8 to play, a virtually impossible task.

I think they have to win outright and this will be neck and neck. And even if it isn't, the Cavs simply haven't been throwing in the towel and there are backdoor opportunities.

All scenarios favor the Cavs. GL and good to see ya.


 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by G-A:

Scal and everyone good luck tonight-- It is true that the Cavs have been recently  covering but they also have in the past lost plenty of double digit games including an infamous blowout to the shorthanded Lakers. I have made money on Cleveland before but I will be staying away from this one-- I would rather take the Blazers plus 10.5 as part of a two team open teaser. And look patiently for game number two.

G A

That laker game was eons ago and should reside in an alternate universe compared to this one and this team.
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by RyanHardy:

Do you see the line moving up right now I have it at 8.5 trying to decide if I should buy it up or wait until tip.  

My opinion is it won't get back to nine but I don't cap games to push them anyhow.
 
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Posted: #84
Scal, i really like the Celtics tonight, i think this is the best game on the board. I want to know what your opinion is. Here are the reasons why i like them. Celtics have begun the rebuilding process. They don't have their big 3 (Pierce, Garnett, and Allen) but they have been a lot more competitive than their record would indicate. They have a deep roster and it helps keep them in games, while opposing teams tend to take them lightly. The Raptors just beat the Celtics in Boston by 9, and i just don't think they playing with a lot of motivation here.  
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

And I want to make this clear:

THE CAVS DO NOT have to WIN but most certainly can and can make it close. We lose sight of that with big lines. We think, "they'll roll tonight."
The Cavs are not the Sixers. There is talent on this squad and they are playing well.

One last thing.

The Cavs always need a spark to play well this season

What was their last spark? The Laker game where Sacre fouled out and they had no one to replace him.

They lost that game. At HOME. Then they won the next SIX. They cooled off after that but it took six games. And they beat quality teams like @the wizards and vs. Memphis.

I see the second half of that Knicks game as starting a Cavs run. That run is at 3 already. And they need a run BIG TIME with only 9 games left.
 
All this and all we have to do is lose by 8 or less tonight against what might be a tight nets team that will get tested with a backcourt Jack and Waiters.

That's a pretty good deal.

We have a big game to cap coming up on 4/2 Knicks Nets so I'm not gonna go crazy here. 2.5 Stars of 5 but I think we have sufficient justification to take the points.

My record is 13-5 this year  (72%). Let's make this a moderate play and look to 4/2 and a favorable line for a sizable play.

The Pick:

CAVS +9 OVER NETS


Who cares about 13-5 record when the 1st play of the year was for over half the bankroll and it was a L.  
 
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Posted: #86
Not Sure About Full Game But Nets First Half Is 
 
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Posted: #87
You really convinced me to take the cavs to cover tonight im riding with you since you know alot more about covers than myself! lets Win $$$
 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by Alldaygambler28:



Who cares about 13-5 record when the 1st play of the year was for over half the bankroll and it was a L.  

You don't even know how little respect you'll get from people, not only on this site, but in life when you say things like that.

I could literally break that comment down for an hour and I wouldn't stop making your head spin.

So, you do the math. 1/2 of my bankroll was gone after the first game. I hit 13 of 17 games after that one. Do you think I'm a profitable better on the year? 
 
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Posted: #89
Scal.   As always great write up and will be rolling with you on this one.  
 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by chauwagerline:

Scal, i really like the Celtics tonight, i think this is the best game on the board. I want to know what your opinion is. Here are the reasons why i like them. Celtics have begun the rebuilding process. They don't have their big 3 (Pierce, Garnett, and Allen) but they have been a lot more competitive than their record would indicate. They have a deep roster and it helps keep them in games, while opposing teams tend to take them lightly. The Raptors just beat the Celtics in Boston by 9, and i just don't think they playing with a lot of motivation here.  

It's an interesting line and certainly gives absolutely no respect to the celts, especially for a home and home where a high line is favorable.

The problem is the celts really have spit the bit, winning only against Miami without Lebron in about a dozen games. They did have a little fight in them last game vs the raps but not nearly enough. And the final is not indicative of the way the raptors set themselves apart.

You have to wonder, after all these bottom feeders losing losing losing, what is the point of winning three or four more games and dropping in the lottery? The players may want to win but the coaches most certainly know losing can only help their cause next year. That is why predicting the Celts motivation in this home stretch is very tough.

Meanwhile, the raptors have a 2.5 game lead on the Knicks and they can drop from 3rd to 5th if they give it up. They definitely have much more to play for. 9.5 is a lot. This game does not interest me for betting purposes. Too many points in the side I like and not enough info in Boston to know of they'll get inside this number. The home and home does favor the celts though. 
 
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Posted: #91
@whisper
@algee 
@tigers

Glad to see you all on board.
 
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Posted: #92
Great logical conclusions scal. I think the catch here is the fact that books are not paying much attention to NBA at this point. Great note and good luck.
 
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Posted: #93
Great writeup again. Thanks for taking the time. I could only get 8.5 but I'm on board
 
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Posted: #94

Here ya go Scal:

A Cavs/Lakers/Knicks ML parlay pays +8300, add the Nuggs and you can have +32700

 

 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by TooHigh2WonderWhy:

Great logical conclusions scal. I think the catch here is the fact that books are not paying much attention to NBA at this point. Great note and good luck.

Much appreciated!
 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by Mike C.:

Great writeup again. Thanks for taking the time. I could only get 8.5 but I'm on board
Glad to see you on board. 
 
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Posted: #97
@Train - now those are parlay odds if I ever saw em!

(Doesn't have the Sixers mega-sized ML to drop In their but still)
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Cavs 5th in 7 is a major line mover in their favor (which is great for Cavs backers beacause I don't see it having much effect on their play). And now the line is moving down anyway.

And don't worry about what Vegas is begging for.

If you read my response to Bator in another thread, there is a spread world where Vegas and spreads reside and a real world where the teams actually play.

The real world always prevails over the spread world.

If you cap a game with real world analysis (as I did for 90% of my OP) that should always take precedence over "Vegas Knows."

I can assure you, they've begged for money many, many times on sides that have hit and crushed them.

Lakers thunder is a perfect example. That game opened at 11 and got to 13 and even 13.5 on some sites, pleading for Laker money. Result? Lakers not only covered but won outright.

The spread world and Vegas itself goes up in smoke if you cap a game correctly. 

The nine points is simply an imaginary cushion in a real world cap. Vegas doesn't exist beyond the court of play.

The Cavs will come to play tonight. They must. If they lose they may drop 4 games back of the 8th spot with 8 to play, a virtually impossible task.

I think they have to win outright and this will be neck and neck. And even if it isn't, the Cavs simply haven't been throwing in the towel and there are backdoor opportunities.

All scenarios favor the Cavs. GL and good to see ya.



At work now brotha but afterwards I will properly respond afterwards.

Appreciate your response and best of luck (though I don't think you need it!)
 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

@Train - now those are parlay odds if I ever saw em!

(Doesn't have the Sixers mega-sized ML to drop In their but still)

True, but LA/NY & Clev have all proven they can actually win a game....and facing the Twolves, Suns, and Nets is not an outrageous feat

 
 
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Posted: #100
raps are will be more motivated than wednesday cause now they can clinch first playoffs in 6 years on hime floor.  casey is still pissed about the cavs loss too
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