Posted:
#1
Ironically, this will be one of my bigger write-ups of late. I started and it all started pouring out.
We're gonna have a little fun with this one. I would never write-up three games in a week but the last two demanded it and this one stands out to me. No need to go crazy with it. It is not nearly as good as the Knicks play this week or the Lakers play on Sunday but I wanted to write it up.
The game is the Cavs vs. the Nets. I like the Cavs and here is why.
As you know, I've said repeatedly I've gravitated away from the Nets and towards the Knicks. Tonight we cap a Nets game because there are too many reasons not to do so.
You also know I subscribe to the "Shi+ to gold" motto where you cap the worst teams, which usually have lines that either not many people are interested in or can be exploited one way or another.
The Cavs are shi+ so the table is set.
1. Can this line be exploited?
I say yes.
It looks like lazy line-setting to me. Why would that occur? The NCAA tournament makes FAR more money for any book than a Nets Cavs game. We are right at the Sweet Sixteen in the thick of the tournament so it appears the books are not paying that much attention to the NBA. To prove that, as I type, there are 12 games tonight and only 4 lines have been released by almost all major books. That is highly unusual. It appears the books have the NCAA on their mind and the NBA is playing second fiddle.
Yet, we have a line for Nets Cavs.It is 9.5 (and appears to have moved down to 9 in some spots).
Where does that line come from? Well the Nets have won 11 in a row at home by an average of 11.4 points. It looks like the books said, "let's just put a 10 spot up to represent that trend, with a small deflation for the fact the Cavs have won 3 and the Nets have lost 2."
Is that enough of a deflation? I don't think it is. I would be very hesitant to lay points to the Cavs right now.
Why?
0
My pleasure
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