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#1
1-1 yesterday. Sigh, it's midway through the season; those lazy Cavs are never going to change their middling ways.
ATL -10
There are two games that mirror each other's situation tonight. Both have elite Eastern teams coming off losses (ORL & ATL—and both these teams seem to have left their mojo in 2009). Both are coming off consecutive ATS losses (ORL's last game was a push). One will cover; the other will not. Which team is the more likely to cover? Atlanta, IMO. Don't look at Excremento's good outing last time vs CHA; they have not won consecutive games ATS-wise since early December. Their trend of late has been: win one game, lose the next 4 or 5 (ATS & SU). True, they've been very good as road dogs (10-5-2 ATS), an excellent 6-1-1 ATS as double-digit road dogs, and 10-7-2 ATS overall on the road. On the other hand, we have ATL, whose record of late has been spotty after being raped back-to-back by CLEV in late December. That said, there is one trend that ATL can be relied on, and it's that they don't usually lose 3 games ATS in a row (except for one rough patch from Nov 20-26). Look at the line; in spite of the fact that Joe Johnson and Josh Smith, their top 2 scorers, are deemed questionable for tonight, the line has been jacked up from ATL -5.5 in their previous meeting to ATL -10? Hmm...makes me think this is the game where all the other Hawks play like All-Stars.
INDI +12
Now to the other Eastern game. INDI is not bad at 6-6 ATS on b2b's, but that's not the point. The point is ORL is in an ATS slump of late. ORL has covered only 3 out of their last 10 games, while INDI has been a more respectable 6-4 ATS in January. INDI has not lost 2 straight games ATS since Dec 11, and there is no reason to believe that after their horredous 30-pt beating last night, it won't get up to redeem some of their manhood back. Remember, INDI is unbeaten as double-digit dogs this season (3-0 ATS on the road as DD dogs, 4-0 ATS overall). You can make the case that INDI is a terrible 2-5 ATS on its second road game after a previous loss, but INDI's roster back then looked like Portland's now—depleted and shallow. Previous ORL-INDI matchups have shown that INDI can hang with the Magic; more so now that Team Disney hasn't been the same ATS monster since last summer's trade for Vince "Lazybone" Carter. Many of us cashed in on betting vs INDI last night; tonight it's time for some Pacer love, IMHO.
SAS -6.5
UTA is no longer a bad road team; it's a decent 8-6-1 ATS as a road dog, 9-9-1 ATS overall on the road, and 3-1 ATS after a road loss (if the next game is also on the road). SAS is a good 12-9-1 ATS as a home fave, 13-9-1 ATS overall at home. UTA has owned SAS every game this season, and is looking to sweep the Spurs tonight. Don't for a moment think the Spurs don't know this. It's during spots like this that the old men of San Antonio come to play, incomplete roster be damned. I'm disregarding this season's previous matchup performances to play this one on instinct alone (and therefore a small play). This has thus far been the largest spread between these 2 teams since March 2007. Something's gotta be cooking for this line to have been pegged so high.
PHX -12.5
Betting against NJN has been somewhat of a money sport for some guys, and rightly so. Nets just lost 3 straight; that ain't enough. They gotta lose 1 or 2 more before another ATS win, LOL. In its recent road stretch, PHX has been thoroughly beaten, soaked, washed, rinsed and put out to dry. Now is the time to prove to their home audience that the early part of the season was no fluke, and what better team to do it against than Team Jay-Z? Neither are the Suns to make like the Mavs and lose at home ATS-wise to lowly teams; they're a good 6-3 ATS vs sub-.500 teams at home. PHX is an excellent 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its first home game after a road loss, and I don't see that trend being broken by the lowly Nets. Afraid of the large spread? Don't be. PHX is 4-1 ATS as a DD-fave, and 1-0 ATS as a DD-dog (which happened only once, on the road vs Boston on November 5, where PHX also won SU).
DAL -4.5
This is the one game that I'd gladly be a square, despite the evidence that WAS can play with DAL. Am basing this pick solely on both teams' home-road performances. These 2 teams' similarities are that they play lazily at home, doing very poorly as home faves (DAL is a horrendous 0-11 ATS as a home fave all December and 4-14 ATS overall as home faves; WAS is 3-9 ATS overall as home faves) but while WAS plays only marginally better on the road (8-11 ATS), DAL is a commendable 8-3 ATS as a road fave, and 14-7 ATS overall on the road. WAS is 3-4 ATS as a home dog, and 7-12 ATS overall at home. It might not bode well that DAL is coming off a win and that it hasn't won 2 straight games ATS-wise since Nov 25 & 27, but WAS has just won 2 straight games SU and covered 3 straight, and it's high time they slacked off and shot themselves in the foot again for a home loss, as seems to be their time-honored tradition. Small play here, because I'm ready to lose this one.
Come one, come all with your picks and opinions, gentlemen
ATL -10
There are two games that mirror each other's situation tonight. Both have elite Eastern teams coming off losses (ORL & ATL—and both these teams seem to have left their mojo in 2009). Both are coming off consecutive ATS losses (ORL's last game was a push). One will cover; the other will not. Which team is the more likely to cover? Atlanta, IMO. Don't look at Excremento's good outing last time vs CHA; they have not won consecutive games ATS-wise since early December. Their trend of late has been: win one game, lose the next 4 or 5 (ATS & SU). True, they've been very good as road dogs (10-5-2 ATS), an excellent 6-1-1 ATS as double-digit road dogs, and 10-7-2 ATS overall on the road. On the other hand, we have ATL, whose record of late has been spotty after being raped back-to-back by CLEV in late December. That said, there is one trend that ATL can be relied on, and it's that they don't usually lose 3 games ATS in a row (except for one rough patch from Nov 20-26). Look at the line; in spite of the fact that Joe Johnson and Josh Smith, their top 2 scorers, are deemed questionable for tonight, the line has been jacked up from ATL -5.5 in their previous meeting to ATL -10? Hmm...makes me think this is the game where all the other Hawks play like All-Stars.
INDI +12
Now to the other Eastern game. INDI is not bad at 6-6 ATS on b2b's, but that's not the point. The point is ORL is in an ATS slump of late. ORL has covered only 3 out of their last 10 games, while INDI has been a more respectable 6-4 ATS in January. INDI has not lost 2 straight games ATS since Dec 11, and there is no reason to believe that after their horredous 30-pt beating last night, it won't get up to redeem some of their manhood back. Remember, INDI is unbeaten as double-digit dogs this season (3-0 ATS on the road as DD dogs, 4-0 ATS overall). You can make the case that INDI is a terrible 2-5 ATS on its second road game after a previous loss, but INDI's roster back then looked like Portland's now—depleted and shallow. Previous ORL-INDI matchups have shown that INDI can hang with the Magic; more so now that Team Disney hasn't been the same ATS monster since last summer's trade for Vince "Lazybone" Carter. Many of us cashed in on betting vs INDI last night; tonight it's time for some Pacer love, IMHO.
SAS -6.5
UTA is no longer a bad road team; it's a decent 8-6-1 ATS as a road dog, 9-9-1 ATS overall on the road, and 3-1 ATS after a road loss (if the next game is also on the road). SAS is a good 12-9-1 ATS as a home fave, 13-9-1 ATS overall at home. UTA has owned SAS every game this season, and is looking to sweep the Spurs tonight. Don't for a moment think the Spurs don't know this. It's during spots like this that the old men of San Antonio come to play, incomplete roster be damned. I'm disregarding this season's previous matchup performances to play this one on instinct alone (and therefore a small play). This has thus far been the largest spread between these 2 teams since March 2007. Something's gotta be cooking for this line to have been pegged so high.
PHX -12.5
Betting against NJN has been somewhat of a money sport for some guys, and rightly so. Nets just lost 3 straight; that ain't enough. They gotta lose 1 or 2 more before another ATS win, LOL. In its recent road stretch, PHX has been thoroughly beaten, soaked, washed, rinsed and put out to dry. Now is the time to prove to their home audience that the early part of the season was no fluke, and what better team to do it against than Team Jay-Z? Neither are the Suns to make like the Mavs and lose at home ATS-wise to lowly teams; they're a good 6-3 ATS vs sub-.500 teams at home. PHX is an excellent 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its first home game after a road loss, and I don't see that trend being broken by the lowly Nets. Afraid of the large spread? Don't be. PHX is 4-1 ATS as a DD-fave, and 1-0 ATS as a DD-dog (which happened only once, on the road vs Boston on November 5, where PHX also won SU).
DAL -4.5
This is the one game that I'd gladly be a square, despite the evidence that WAS can play with DAL. Am basing this pick solely on both teams' home-road performances. These 2 teams' similarities are that they play lazily at home, doing very poorly as home faves (DAL is a horrendous 0-11 ATS as a home fave all December and 4-14 ATS overall as home faves; WAS is 3-9 ATS overall as home faves) but while WAS plays only marginally better on the road (8-11 ATS), DAL is a commendable 8-3 ATS as a road fave, and 14-7 ATS overall on the road. WAS is 3-4 ATS as a home dog, and 7-12 ATS overall at home. It might not bode well that DAL is coming off a win and that it hasn't won 2 straight games ATS-wise since Nov 25 & 27, but WAS has just won 2 straight games SU and covered 3 straight, and it's high time they slacked off and shot themselves in the foot again for a home loss, as seems to be their time-honored tradition. Small play here, because I'm ready to lose this one.
Come one, come all with your picks and opinions, gentlemen
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