Johnson's NBA Picks - Wednesday 2/16

Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

Miami vs. Toronto        Lean:  UNDER 202.5

More of a play on the Heat's defense against the Raptors offense...as well as the Heat having to spend a lot of energy holding on late against the Pacers when they had absolutely no business even being that close after the 1st quarter.  Only thing that might hold me back on this one is the fact that Wednesday's are a great day for the OVER...and Miami might just put up 120.  Either way, I really don't see it getting up this high.

Washington vs. Orlando       Lean:  NONE

Line is set almost exactly where my projection was.  The Wizards finally got a road "win" against the Cavaliers so that monkey is off their back...but I highly doubt they will get #2 against the Magic.  Orlando has won the 3 previous matchups this season by a combined 48 points.  However, this might be one of those "do enough to win" type of games.  I just have a feeling the Magic won't be busting their ass that hard tomorrow. 


New Jersey vs. Boston     Lean:  New Jersey +11.5

Will wait until later on tomorrow and see what the line does.  It would be nice if it could climb up to 12 or higher...but I doubt it.  I think Doc will more than likely rest his players tomorrow.  He has been known to do that.  He knows that they most of the team will be getting extra playing time in the All-Star game...so we should see a lot more of Nate Robinson, Glen Davis, and Delonte West who is expected to make his return.  Nets have been playing some solid basketball of late...and might just sneak up and try and steal this one. 

LA Lakers vs. Cleveland      Lean:  NONE

Line is set just a hair below what I projected...the total is a decent amount under that.  All reasonable logic tells us that the Lakers should come out and absolutely murder the most pathetic team in the league right?  But how many times this season have most of us sat here and read thread after thread after thread saying "The Lakers can't lose _____ in a row!!"  Or "The Lakers WILL STEP UP against the ______"  This team is old.  They don't have a bench.  They can only go 7 or 8 deep at most...and against younger, faster, more athletic teams like the Cavs and against deeper teams like the Celtics/Spurs/Magic they will struggle. 

Indiana vs. Detroit    Lean:  Indiana -1.5

The Pacers showed me more tonight in quarters 2-4 then they did in the previous 7 games where they went 6-1 SU and ATS.  After being down at home 41-19 after the 1st quarter and getting absolutely obliterated in every possibly way it would have been VERY easy for them to back down and let the Heat coast to a win.  The fact that they battled back and almost won the game shows me that Frank Vogel has his guys believing that they are a playoff team.  The effort is there from top to bottom (most importantly Danny Granger who was a waste of talent under O'Brien) and they are now the type of team who I believe will contend in the tough games, and win the games they are expected to win.  A game before the All-Star break against the Pistons is a game they SHOULD win. 

Philadelphia vs. Houston      Lean:  Houston -4

The East @ West trend is the major play for me here.  Philly 9-21 on the road...coming off a bad loss against the Grizzlies...poor scheduling situation for them.  Rockets have been at home for a week now...nice and rested...coming off a really solid win against the Nuggets.  They should be able to take this one down and head into the break on a positive note. 

Sacramento vs. Dallas        Lean:  NONE

Another game where my line projection was pretty much right on.  Kings haven't been playing terribly as of late as far as ATS is concerned going 7-4 in their last 11...but most of those games were at home.  They got their sausages smoked tonight against the Thunder...and looked completely listless in the process.  Dallas however will probably be lumped in with the Magic, Celtics, and Lakers tomorrow night.  How much effort are they going to put into a game against a bottom feeder when they know they have a more important game tomorrow night against Phoenix? 

Golden State vs. Utah        Lean:  OVER 207 / Golden State +6

Only thing that is somewhat holding me back from this one is how the Warriors have fared on the 2nd game of a back to back.  Out of their 10 games so far on a B2B....only 3 of them have managed to go OVER the total...and 1 of those was only because of OT.  The Jazz are going to struggle the rest of the way without a doubt...as we've seen from the past couple games, the defensive intensity and offensive efficiency just aren't there without Sloan.  If it wasn't for Al Jefferson shooting incredibly well tonight and putting up 32 and 10...they would have been blown out of the building.  They are only 12-17 ATS at home this year as well...while the Warriors are a respectable 12-11-1.

New Orleans vs Portland        Lean:  Blazers -4.5

I am going to fade the Hornets EVERY SINGLE GAME until Emeka Okafor comes back into the lineup.  I'm highly surprised Aaron Gray even has a roster spot on an NBA team...let alone starting for a playoff contender.  LaMarcus Aldridge is going to absolutely buttfuck the Hornets on the inside...and I really can't see them doing anything about it.  I'm really surprised that the Blazers have played so well without Brandon Roy, but they know what they do well, and they stick to it.