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Johnson's NBA Plays - Tuesday 1/25/11

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Posted: #1

OVERALL RECORD:  244-174-9 (+46.41 units)

SIDES:  69-41-3  (+32.35 units)

TOTALS:  86-86-2  (-18.95 units)

ML PLAYS:  52-28-3  (+13.40 units)

PROPS:  22-15-1  (+3.15 units)

PARLAYS: 9-4  (+10.46 units)

NCAA BB PLAYS:  6-0  (+6.00 units)

TUESDAY TRENDS:

32 overs 31 unders

Home Teams are 31-33 ATS and 42-23 SU

Favorites are 34-30 ATS

East @ West is 10-3 ATS and 6-7 SU

West @ East is 5-5 SU and ATS

Double Digit Favorites are 3-5 ATS

Home Underdogs are 9-11 SU and ATS

===================================================================================================

Line Projections:

Denver (-3.5) @ Washington   O/U 204

Cleveland @ Boston (-14)  O/U 190

LA Clippers @ Dallas (-5)  O/U 198.5

Charlotte (-2) @ Sacramento  O/U 193.5

Utah @ LA Lakers (-5.5)  O/U 206.5


 
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Posted: #2
Initial Leans:

Denver @ Washington UNDER 211

The Nuggets clearly play a hell of a lot more motivated at home.  As do the Wizards.  If the Wizards want to have any shot at winning this game, it cannot become like their game vs. the Knicks.  The Wizards just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with fast paced teams.  It helps them out a little bit that the last time the Nuggets were on the road they laid a complete egg vs. the Spurs.  In that game Carmelo Anthony didn't show up, Chauncey Billups didn't show up...and their leading scorer was.....Al Harrington?  Take the Nuggets out of the thin air of the Pepsi Center, and they are a completely different team.  Their six wins were against mostly below .500 teams...they only have one win on the road vs. the Eastern Conference (Toronto).  Melo had a great game in a big time revenge matchup against the Pacers on Sunday...and I highly doubt we will see another 14-27 shooting night for 36 points. 

Cleveland vs. Boston UNDER 194

Tough one to call because Shaquille O'Neal will more than likely be out of this game once again.  The last time the Cavaliers put up 100 points...they followed that up with a 57 points debacle at the hands of the Lakers.  Well now they get to go up against the other NBA Finalist...on 2 days of rest...at home...when they haven't had to travel off the Eastern seaboard in about a month.  The only way this one goes over IMO is if the Celtics put up 120...which is without a doubt a possibility.  I'm kind of pissed off that my first two leans are totals...I freakin hate totals.
 
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Posted: #3
CM could you dig up those Boston rested 2+ days games against teams playing the tail end of a b2b on the road coming to Boston garden losing the night before?  Line at 18 could be there for a reason. This should be an interesting piece!
 
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What happened to the avatar? did u goto the box for a day?

what do you think the clipper 1q line will be at? +1.5 or 2? Dallas is pretty competitive 1q's at home, may have to finally fade the clipper 1q this time
 
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This will be Denver's 1st of 5 road games with their Eastern trip. Will they try to improve their road game record. I think they have a shot on this trip. They are 0-3 in their last 3 roadies, so they should at least be looking on this if they want to go 0-4 and so on. Add Washington's scheduling coming into this game and you have a possible Denver cover don't you think?
 
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Posted: #6
shaq is out for sure
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Pho_Q_Pay_Me:

What happened to the avatar? did u goto the box for a day?

what do you think the clipper 1q line will be at? +1.5 or 2? Dallas is pretty competitive 1q's at home, may have to finally fade the clipper 1q this time


If it gets up to 2...it might have to be a rare 3 unit play for me.
 
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Posted: #8
Oh yeah...and I just had to switch from Homer after a rough day.  Believe it or not, with the CBB plays and hitting the two 2 unit plays with the Spurs, I only lost 1 unit going 5-8.


10-8 for the week.
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:



If it gets up to 2...it might have to be a rare 3 unit play for me.


Mavs past 4 1q at home:

vs lakers down by 8

vs orlando up by 9

vs OKC up by 7

vs Portland tied

tough one here
 
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Posted: #10
plus eric gordon is probable. im sure he'll play but how long will it take for him to adjust his shot with the injuries
 
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Posted: #11
Dallas is tough at home for sure...but the Clippers are just too damn good in the first quarter.  We also have the Bobcats going as well...and they are 11-2-2 themselves. 
 
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Posted: #12
Also liking Utah initially...possible road underdog ML play.
 
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Posted: #13

Quote Originally Posted by aireent777:

CM could you dig up those Boston rested 2+ days games against teams playing the tail end of a b2b on the road coming to Boston garden losing the night before?  Line at 18 could be there for a reason. This should be an interesting piece!

Not being a dick, but you have all the info on this site, don't just cherry pick and have someone else do all the work, look it up, that's capping, yes?!

 
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Posted: #14
Love the DEN/WAS under 211 (DEN/away & WASH home O/U rec' is 12-28)!!
 
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Posted: #15

Oh yeah I owe you a round or two, when and if  I visit my New England hometown.

10-4 Mondays action !

THX CMJ !!

 
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Posted: #16
GL
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Pho_Q_Pay_Me:

plus eric gordon is probable. im sure he'll play but how long will it take for him to adjust his shot with the injuries


Rotoworld said that Eric Gordon didn't make it on the flight to dallas...
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Pho_Q_Pay_Me:

plus eric gordon is probable. im sure he'll play but how long will it take for him to adjust his shot with the injuries


Gordon should better be rested and healed against this Dallas defense. I know he's a soldier but falling and *really* hurting himself will surely be in the back of his mind if he isn't at 100%. If he can't drive like he does usually and like he drove against the Golden State defense in his last game, he won't be nearly as effective.

The reason I lost the Warriors +5.5 wager today is that their primary penetrator Monta Ellis was still somewhat banged up, consequently having to settle for too many jumpers. Yes, 25 points but on 26 shots. A-la Kobe Bryant at his worst. Also, when you don't drive, you make it easy for defense. GSW couldn't get an offensive rebound or an open three to save their life. The domino effect.

Gordon-Griffin one-two punch won't be as effective the next 1-2 games, since there was really a lot of bruising on both guys in the last few games.

That said... Monta Ellis doesn't have Blake Griffin by his side... and defense of the Mavs isn't as good as that of the Spurs. But surely having your primary ballhandler at 100% helps a lot.
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by MuggsyBogues:



Gordon should better be rested and healed against this Dallas defense. I know he's a soldier but falling and *really* hurting himself will surely be in the back of his mind if he isn't at 100%. If he can't drive like he does usually and like he drove against the Golden State defense in his last game, he won't be nearly as effective.

The reason I lost the Warriors +5.5 wager today is that their primary penetrator Monta Ellis was still somewhat banged up, consequently having to settle for too many jumpers. Yes, 25 points but on 26 shots. A-la Kobe Bryant at his worst. Also, when you don't drive, you make it easy for defense. GSW couldn't get an offensive rebound or an open three to save their life. The domino effect.

Gordon-Griffin one-two punch won't be as effective the next 1-2 games, since there was really a lot of bruising on both guys in the last few games.

That said... Monta Ellis doesn't have Blake Griffin by his side... and defense of the Mavs isn't as good as that of the Spurs. But surely having your primary ballhandler at 100% helps a lot.


Eric Gordon didn't make it to practice nor did he make the flight to dallas according to rotoworld
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Pho_Q_Pay_Me:



Eric Gordon didn't make it to practice nor did he make the flight to dallas according to rotoworld


I guess these would be my top three choices, from the best to the worst (if I were to back the clippers)

1) Gordon healthy and playing
2) Gordon NOT playing at all
3) Gordon injured and still starting (so probably a little off his game)

The fact he didn't practice and probably won't play is just... neutral to me. Not bad.
 
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Posted: #22
LA Clippers
DatePlayerInjuryStatus
12/21/10Craig SmithBackout indefinitely
12/07/10Chris KamanAnkleout indefinitely
01/24/11Eric GordonWristis downgraded to expected to miss Tuesday vs. Dallas
 
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GL CJ
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Whalewatcher:

Not being a dick, but you have all the info on this site, don't just cherry pick and have someone else do all the work, look it up, that's capping, yes?!



I love to help out when I can with trends and stats...but that would just take too much time.  I was able to come up with the Denver stats because I had nothing to do on Sunday.


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