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    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

    Johnson's NBA Plays - Tuesday 1/25/11

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    CMJohnson1
    ozzwald
    Football_Time13
    MrShow
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    CMJohnson1
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 11:34 AM ET #26

    Quote Originally Posted by MuggsyBogues:



    Gordon should better be rested and healed against this Dallas defense. I know he's a soldier but falling and *really* hurting himself will surely be in the back of his mind if he isn't at 100%. If he can't drive like he does usually and like he drove against the Golden State defense in his last game, he won't be nearly as effective.

    The reason I lost the Warriors +5.5 wager today is that their primary penetrator Monta Ellis was still somewhat banged up, consequently having to settle for too many jumpers. Yes, 25 points but on 26 shots. A-la Kobe Bryant at his worst. Also, when you don't drive, you make it easy for defense. GSW couldn't get an offensive rebound or an open three to save their life. The domino effect.

    Gordon-Griffin one-two punch won't be as effective the next 1-2 games, since there was really a lot of bruising on both guys in the last few games.

    That said... Monta Ellis doesn't have Blake Griffin by his side... and defense of the Mavs isn't as good as that of the Spurs. But surely having your primary ballhandler at 100% helps a lot.


    All good points...but what I'm looking at is the fact that Baron Davis initially had this role until Gordon stepped up and showed that he is a future star in this league.  Baron Davis has had a rivalry with the Mavericks for a long time, back from probably the 2005 season or so when the Mavs and Warriors had those great playoff battles.

    The problem the Clippers will run into is the fact that they are not a very deep team.  They play their 7 or 8 guys, and that's it.  So when one of those guys goes down, it's a bad situation.  I think that they will feed off the usual energy they have early in the game, and then in the 2nd quarter get run out of the building as they tend to do.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by MuggsyBogues:



    Gordon should better be rested and healed against this Dallas defense. I know he's a soldier but falling and *really* hurting himself will surely be in the back of his mind if he isn't at 100%. If he can't drive like he does usually and like he drove against the Golden State defense in his last game, he won't be nearly as effective.

    The reason I lost the Warriors +5.5 wager today is that their primary penetrator Monta Ellis was still somewhat banged up, consequently having to settle for too many jumpers. Yes, 25 points but on 26 shots. A-la Kobe Bryant at his worst. Also, when you don't drive, you make it easy for defense. GSW couldn't get an offensive rebound or an open three to save their life. The domino effect.

    Gordon-Griffin one-two punch won't be as effective the next 1-2 games, since there was really a lot of bruising on both guys in the last few games.

    That said... Monta Ellis doesn't have Blake Griffin by his side... and defense of the Mavs isn't as good as that of the Spurs. But surely having your primary ballhandler at 100% helps a lot.


    All good points...but what I'm looking at is the fact that Baron Davis initially had this role until Gordon stepped up and showed that he is a future star in this league.  Baron Davis has had a rivalry with the Mavericks for a long time, back from probably the 2005 season or so when the Mavs and Warriors had those great playoff battles.

    The problem the Clippers will run into is the fact that they are not a very deep team.  They play their 7 or 8 guys, and that's it.  So when one of those guys goes down, it's a bad situation.  I think that they will feed off the usual energy they have early in the game, and then in the 2nd quarter get run out of the building as they tend to do.
     
    ozzwald
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 11:39 AM ET #27

    Reply
     
    CMJohnson1
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 12:00 PM ET #28

    Went back and found my weekly numbers.  I'm sure not many of you care...but I do!!  This shows that it's ok to have a bad day or two...just to keep focused and be up at the end of the week!!

    Week 1 (11/28 - 12/4)          - 23 wins 14 losses 1 push
    Week 2 (12/5 - 12/11)          - 25 wins 12 losses 0 push
    Week 3 (12/12 - 12/18)        - 15 wins 15 losses 4 push
    Week 4 (12/19 - 12/25)        - 16 wins 17 losses 0 push
    Week 5 (12/26 - 1/1)            - 29 wins 12 losses 1 push
    Week 6 (1/2 - 1/8)               - 14 wins 15 losses 0 push
    Week 7 (1/9 - 1/15)             - 18 wins 12 losses 0 push
    Week 8 (1/16 - 1/22)            - 27 wins 19 losses 0 push
    Reply
    Went back and found my weekly numbers.  I'm sure not many of you care...but I do!!  This shows that it's ok to have a bad day or two...just to keep focused and be up at the end of the week!!

    Week 1 (11/28 - 12/4)          - 23 wins 14 losses 1 push
    Week 2 (12/5 - 12/11)          - 25 wins 12 losses 0 push
    Week 3 (12/12 - 12/18)        - 15 wins 15 losses 4 push
    Week 4 (12/19 - 12/25)        - 16 wins 17 losses 0 push
    Week 5 (12/26 - 1/1)            - 29 wins 12 losses 1 push
    Week 6 (1/2 - 1/8)               - 14 wins 15 losses 0 push
    Week 7 (1/9 - 1/15)             - 18 wins 12 losses 0 push
    Week 8 (1/16 - 1/22)            - 27 wins 19 losses 0 push
     
    Football_Time13
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 12:11 PM ET #29

    Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

    Also liking Utah initially...possible road underdog ML play.



    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

    Also liking Utah initially...possible road underdog ML play.



     
    CMJohnson1
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 12:22 PM ET #30

    Denver Nuggets vs. Washington Wizards UNDER 211.5

    The only thing that really worries me about this total (besides the fact that I am terrible at totals) is that most of the signs for this game are pointing towards the UNDER.  The Wizards play slower at home...the Nuggets play slower (if at all) on the road.  The Wizards have also seen back to back road games twice already this season, and the second game has followed the first game total both times.  The Wizards are averaging only 96 points in their home games against the Western Conference, which is severely spiked due to the stupidly fast paced game against the Kings.  If you take that game out...their average goes down to 91.2 points.  The Nuggets on the road vs. the East put up about 106 per game, which is a little bit higher due to a couple of games against the Knicks and Raptors, who don't play defense.  The Wizards aren't known exactly for their defense, but they are 5th in the league in blocked shots which should slow down most of the inside game of the Nuggets...and 3rd in the league in steals.  This total IMO is set about 4 points too high.  It might be close, but I strongly feel as though it stays under the total.

    Prediction:  Nuggets 104  Wizards 99
    Risk:  1.1 units to win 1 unit
    Reply
    Denver Nuggets vs. Washington Wizards UNDER 211.5

    The only thing that really worries me about this total (besides the fact that I am terrible at totals) is that most of the signs for this game are pointing towards the UNDER.  The Wizards play slower at home...the Nuggets play slower (if at all) on the road.  The Wizards have also seen back to back road games twice already this season, and the second game has followed the first game total both times.  The Wizards are averaging only 96 points in their home games against the Western Conference, which is severely spiked due to the stupidly fast paced game against the Kings.  If you take that game out...their average goes down to 91.2 points.  The Nuggets on the road vs. the East put up about 106 per game, which is a little bit higher due to a couple of games against the Knicks and Raptors, who don't play defense.  The Wizards aren't known exactly for their defense, but they are 5th in the league in blocked shots which should slow down most of the inside game of the Nuggets...and 3rd in the league in steals.  This total IMO is set about 4 points too high.  It might be close, but I strongly feel as though it stays under the total.

    Prediction:  Nuggets 104  Wizards 99
    Risk:  1.1 units to win 1 unit
     
    MrShow
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 12:38 PM ET #31

    I love the Wizards +5.5 tonight.  Since Dec 1, 2010 the Nuggets have gone 2-8 on the road with the only wins coming at Toronto and Minnesota.

    The Wiz are every bit as talented as the Nuggets and home court will rule in this one.  Den may win straight up but I love the Wiz to cover the points in this one.

    Best of luck all.
    Reply
    I love the Wizards +5.5 tonight.  Since Dec 1, 2010 the Nuggets have gone 2-8 on the road with the only wins coming at Toronto and Minnesota.

    The Wiz are every bit as talented as the Nuggets and home court will rule in this one.  Den may win straight up but I love the Wiz to cover the points in this one.

    Best of luck all.
     
    CMJohnson1
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 12:54 PM ET #32

    Quote Originally Posted by MrShow:

    I love the Wizards +5.5 tonight.  Since Dec 1, 2010 the Nuggets have gone 2-8 on the road with the only wins coming at Toronto and Minnesota.

    The Wiz are every bit as talented as the Nuggets and home court will rule in this one.  Den may win straight up but I love the Wiz to cover the points in this one.

    Best of luck all.


    If they weren't on a back to back I would be all over it
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by MrShow:

    I love the Wizards +5.5 tonight.  Since Dec 1, 2010 the Nuggets have gone 2-8 on the road with the only wins coming at Toronto and Minnesota.

    The Wiz are every bit as talented as the Nuggets and home court will rule in this one.  Den may win straight up but I love the Wiz to cover the points in this one.

    Best of luck all.


    If they weren't on a back to back I would be all over it
     
    Brave3110
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 1:07 PM ET #33

    Reply
     
    sabia
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 1:16 PM ET #34

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    CMJohnson1
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 1:18 PM ET #35

    Quote Originally Posted by CapDees70:

    Hey CM I had a question not related to your plays if you could help.  Can you tell me where I can find the average points scored and points allowed in the NBA per game?  Thanks

     



    You can find each team on the matchup page...or you can just use the tab under NBA for stats...they have each team there.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by CapDees70:

    Hey CM I had a question not related to your plays if you could help.  Can you tell me where I can find the average points scored and points allowed in the NBA per game?  Thanks

     



    You can find each team on the matchup page...or you can just use the tab under NBA for stats...they have each team there.
     
    CMJohnson1
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 1:27 PM ET #36

    Ahhhh...I'm not sure if there would be a specific site that would give you all of that, but a simple way would be to take all of the average points scored for each team and then divide by 30
    Reply
    Ahhhh...I'm not sure if there would be a specific site that would give you all of that, but a simple way would be to take all of the average points scored for each team and then divide by 30
     
    djcbulls23
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 1:31 PM ET #37

    CM,

    I was thinking of taking the over in the kings/cats game... but How much of an impact, if any, do you think Tyrus thomas' injury will have on the 'cats D... I noticed they have gave up 97 and 103 the last 2 games(small sample size obviously) .

     

    Reply

    CM,

    I was thinking of taking the over in the kings/cats game... but How much of an impact, if any, do you think Tyrus thomas' injury will have on the 'cats D... I noticed they have gave up 97 and 103 the last 2 games(small sample size obviously) .

     

     
    CMJohnson1
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 1:37 PM ET #38

    Quote Originally Posted by djcbulls23:

    CM,

    I was thinking of taking the over in the kings/cats game... but How much of an impact, if any, do you think Tyrus thomas' injury will have on the 'cats D... I noticed they have gave up 97 and 103 the last 2 games(small sample size obviously) .

     



    No real feelings towards it either way...but if you like that, try the team total of the Kings OVER 96.5

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by djcbulls23:

    CM,

    I was thinking of taking the over in the kings/cats game... but How much of an impact, if any, do you think Tyrus thomas' injury will have on the 'cats D... I noticed they have gave up 97 and 103 the last 2 games(small sample size obviously) .

     



    No real feelings towards it either way...but if you like that, try the team total of the Kings OVER 96.5

     
    cubicman
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 2:12 PM ET #39

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    CMJohnson1
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 2:23 PM ET #40

    Utah Jazz +8.5

    The Lakers have had 3 days off in between games twice this season.  The first time they played the Washington Wizards on December 7th...and even though they won the game 115-108, they failed to cover the spread.  The second time this happened the Lakers had 3 days off heading into the Christmas Day game against the Heat.  They lost that game 96-80 and obviously lost ATS as well.  The last two times the Lakers have returned home from a 2+ game road trip, they lost ATS...one against Milwaukee where they lost SU as well by quite a bit, and most recently against the Sixers where they won SU and lost ATS.  I think this could very easily be a close game throughout.  The Jazz have been on the road for over a week now, and after that drubbing at the hands of the Celtics last Friday night, I think they are seriously looking forward to this game.  They clearly had no desire to play against the Sixers the other night, knowing that they had a big game against the Lakers coming up.

    Prediction:  Lakers 104  Jazz 102
    Risk:  2.2 units to win 2 units
    Reply
    Utah Jazz +8.5

    The Lakers have had 3 days off in between games twice this season.  The first time they played the Washington Wizards on December 7th...and even though they won the game 115-108, they failed to cover the spread.  The second time this happened the Lakers had 3 days off heading into the Christmas Day game against the Heat.  They lost that game 96-80 and obviously lost ATS as well.  The last two times the Lakers have returned home from a 2+ game road trip, they lost ATS...one against Milwaukee where they lost SU as well by quite a bit, and most recently against the Sixers where they won SU and lost ATS.  I think this could very easily be a close game throughout.  The Jazz have been on the road for over a week now, and after that drubbing at the hands of the Celtics last Friday night, I think they are seriously looking forward to this game.  They clearly had no desire to play against the Sixers the other night, knowing that they had a big game against the Lakers coming up.

    Prediction:  Lakers 104  Jazz 102
    Risk:  2.2 units to win 2 units
     
    dendogg55
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 2:34 PM ET #41

    Best of Luck!!! Get it!!!!
    Reply
    Best of Luck!!! Get it!!!!
     
    CMJohnson1
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 2:38 PM ET #42

    Reply
     
    brent0887
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 2:40 PM ET #43

    this is turning out to quite the snowy winter 


    GL today 
    Reply
    this is turning out to quite the snowy winter 


    GL today 
     
    humbleness1235
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    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 2:41 PM ET #44

    Quote Originally Posted by CapDees70:

    Hey CM I had a question not related to your plays if you could help.  Can you tell me where I can find the average points scored and points allowed in the NBA per game?  Thanks

     

    SCORESANDODDS.COM HAS GREAT STATS!! JUST CLICK FREE MATCHUP FOR EACH GAME...YOU WILL FIND MORE THAN YOU NEED TO KNOW

    O YEAH...GL CM...WAS HOPING TO SEE YOU ON THE MAVS..I GOT IT AT -5 LASTNIGHT

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by CapDees70:

    Hey CM I had a question not related to your plays if you could help.  Can you tell me where I can find the average points scored and points allowed in the NBA per game?  Thanks

     

    SCORESANDODDS.COM HAS GREAT STATS!! JUST CLICK FREE MATCHUP FOR EACH GAME...YOU WILL FIND MORE THAN YOU NEED TO KNOW

    O YEAH...GL CM...WAS HOPING TO SEE YOU ON THE MAVS..I GOT IT AT -5 LASTNIGHT

     
    fresh4lyph
    fresh4lyph
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    Posts: 2668
    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 2:41 PM ET #45

    interesting point you brought up about Lakers on 3 days rest
    Reply
    interesting point you brought up about Lakers on 3 days rest
     
    Sk323i
    Sk323i
    Prospect
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    Joined: Dec, 2010
    Posts: 19
    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 2:42 PM ET #46

    your sooooo smart man i love the write ups ! keep it rolling
    Reply
    your sooooo smart man i love the write ups ! keep it rolling
     
    CMJohnson1
    CMJohnson1
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    Joined: Oct, 2007
    Posts: 36739
    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 2:43 PM ET #47

    Quote Originally Posted by humbleness1235:

    SCORESANDODDS.COM HAS GREAT STATS!! JUST CLICK FREE MATCHUP FOR EACH GAME...YOU WILL FIND MORE THAN YOU NEED TO KNOW

    O YEAH...GL CM...WAS HOPING TO SEE YOU ON THE MAVS..I GOT IT AT -5 LASTNIGHT



    I've been very hesitant to take the Clippers on the road for a full game.  Still waiting to see if they are stupid enough to give me a +2 for the 1st quarter, but as far as the full game I want to see the Clippers put together some nice road games before I bet on them
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by humbleness1235:

    SCORESANDODDS.COM HAS GREAT STATS!! JUST CLICK FREE MATCHUP FOR EACH GAME...YOU WILL FIND MORE THAN YOU NEED TO KNOW

    O YEAH...GL CM...WAS HOPING TO SEE YOU ON THE MAVS..I GOT IT AT -5 LASTNIGHT



    I've been very hesitant to take the Clippers on the road for a full game.  Still waiting to see if they are stupid enough to give me a +2 for the 1st quarter, but as far as the full game I want to see the Clippers put together some nice road games before I bet on them
     
    CMJohnson1
    CMJohnson1
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    Joined: Oct, 2007
    Posts: 36739
    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 2:45 PM ET #48

    Quote Originally Posted by fresh4lyph:

    interesting point you brought up about Lakers on 3 days rest



    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by fresh4lyph:

    interesting point you brought up about Lakers on 3 days rest



     
    Sk323i
    Sk323i
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2010
    Posts: 19
    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 2:49 PM ET #49

    Cappppping but id like to say that Lake show on 3 days rest....are waiting to play some BALL...especially cause they gotta beat the CELTICS ON SUNDAY BY at least 10
    Reply
    Cappppping but id like to say that Lake show on 3 days rest....are waiting to play some BALL...especially cause they gotta beat the CELTICS ON SUNDAY BY at least 10
     
     
    Crashdavis565
    Crashdavis565
    MVP
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2007
    Posts: 15772
    Posted: Jan. 25, 2011 - 2:51 PM ET #50

    read on here too the Thuggs are 16-4 on the under starting a 2 plus game road trip

    gl

    Reply

    read on here too the Thuggs are 16-4 on the under starting a 2 plus game road trip

    gl

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