Johnson's NBA Predictions 2013-14

Hope everyone had a fantastic summer...and is kicking butt in the NFL as well, but it's just about time to get back to the real business.  NBA betting!!

Finished last season with a 226-213 regular season record for a net profit of $1,495.  Wasn't my best % ever, but as far as profit goes it was one of my better years.  For those of you that followed I focused in on money management to really drive those profits.

Last year was the first year I did the predictions for the NBA, bringing my preseason ritual over from the NFL.  I am doing it once again as it is always enjoyable to go back and read what we all thought at the start of the season as opposed to the end.

ATLANTIC DIVISION

1.  Brooklyn Nets  57-25   (49-33 last year)

I think this team exceeds their expectations this year.  Obviously made the biggest moves in the offseason adding Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Jason Terry, and Andrei Kirilenko.  KG and Pierce won't bring a ton to the table on the offensive end anymore, but with Deron Williams and Joe Johnson as the explosive players on the team they shouldn't have to be.  The Nets were very good defensively last year, and that should stay the same without a doubt.  I think they settle into a Spurs-type schedule management system with Jason Kidd where they have the ability to rest players towards the end of the year. 

2.  New York Knicks  49-33  (54-28 last year)

Brought in Metta World Peace to give this team a little bit of toughness I guess...but I'm not really sold on that move yet.  He has been slipping consistently over the past couple of years.  Stoudemire's health will be once again a big question for this team.  They were able to ride some hot streaks last year including the big one at the end of the year.  I just don't think that another year for these guys will mean more success.  Melo is still a top 5 player in the league, I like the drafting of Hardaway Jr., but I still view this as a decline season for the Knicks, but an obvious playoff team.

3.  Toronto Raptors  41-41  (34-48 last year)

A lot of my predictions are based on a team's top 6 players.  I strongly feel that to be successful in the NBA you have to have a solid top 6...you need more than a few players but if you have too many fighting for minutes and the ball, it won't work.  With the Raptors you have happy, DeRozan, Fields, Johnson, Lowery, and Valuncianus as what I would view as the top 6.  That's not bad.  They are young and inexperienced, but certainly higher on excitement than they have been in a while.  If they can improve on their pitiful 3 point shooting and get to a more driving style of play they should contend for a playoff spot.

4.  Boston Celtics  28-54  (41-40 last year)

Rebuilding year without a doubt for my boys in green.  First of all, I hated the fact that they traded Pierce and KG..but understand the move.  I just strongly felt as though those guys deserved the right to retire as Celtics.  They meant so much to the city of Boston, and it will hurt to see them in different uniforms.  But I LOVE the hiring of Brad Stevens and think he will be a great coach before too long.  The facts still remain that this team isn't very good right now.  Defensively they will be great IMO...but there just isn't enough offensive options to put the points on the board.  Rondo will have to shoulder a lot more responsibility as this is his team now.  Shouldn't be a big issue from what we've seen in the past.  In all honesty, I hope this number is a lot worse so they can get as good a draft pick as possible.

5.  Philadelphia 76ers  16-66  (34-48 last year)

The Sixers haven't been shy in their intentions for this year.  I think 16 wins might be a generous prediction for them.  I tried to do a Top 6 players list for them, but when I got to two rookies at what I see as #3 and 4...I gave up.  Most compelling story line for me watching this team will be the development of Noel and Carter-Williams and watching their body language, intensity, passion throughout what will almost certainly be a dud of a season.

Will be doing one division a day for the next week or so...gotta continue my research!!

Basically agree with your analysis. Dont think that Toronto will break even, they are too inconsistent, less than 35 wins in my opinion. Phila might get something over 16, but not much...

real business Bol new season!

always appreciate your thoughts.  Thanks and BOL this season

Thanks guys.  Should be another great year.

BOL, Lets have a monster NBA season

Glad to see you CM. Good luck to you this season! Always read you analysis

TOR

CENTRAL DIVISION

1.  Indiana Pacers  60-22  (49-33 last year)

Big jump year out of the Pacers.  Possibly the best Top 6 in the NBA.  Paul George is a stud, and Hibbert has continued to improve.  Vogel has these guys playing a complete game, and they should have no problem in my mind settling into the #2 seed in the East behind the Heat.  I don't like losing Hansbrough down low as their banger/enforcer, but they brought in Luis Scola who should be able to boost that nicely and give more offensive talent.  Biggest reason I'm putting them ahead of the Bulls is that the Pacers have a deeper bench and more flexibility.

2.  Chicago Bulls 55-27  (45-37 last year)

Derrick Rose being back is worth a ten win jump for sure...but I would have liked to see them make forward moves in the offseason rather than losing players.  No more Hamilton, Bellineli, or Robinson.  Those were three consistent, solid players that put up over 30 points per game for the Bulls last year.  Figure Rose will average 25 that they didn't have last year and there is quite a significant drop-off.  Wildcard for this team will be whether or not Rose is able to fully integrate the rest of the team or if he plays more of a selfish style.

3.  Detroit Pistons 45-37  (29-53 last year)

Most improved team in the league IMO.  If these guys can figure out how to play together they should be well within the playoff fight.  They were middle of the road or just below in most statistical categories last year...but I would call this team possibly the deepest in the NBA.  12 legitimate NBA players and some exciting rookies with Caldwell-Pope and Siva.  Without a doubt will be an exciting team to watch. 

4.  Cleveland Cavaliers  32-50  (24-58 last year)

Putting them ahead of the Bucks because I like their younger players and defensive flexibility.  Kyrie Irving NEEDS to be more of a point guard and increase his assist numbers if the Cavs want to be seriously relevant.  Bennett should be a nice player for them, and their low post players are solid.  I just don't think they have the extra gear to kick in if Irving gets shut down for any reason.

5.  Milwaukee Bucks  29-53  (38-44 last year)

I just don't like this team on paper.  They don't have a top 6...maybe a top 4 at best.  Mayo isn't a top tier scorer.  They lost 4 out of their top 5 scorers from last year and with only Mayo as a serious addition, I can't see them being good.  I have a strong feeling that one of my favorite bets this year will be UNDERS in Bucks games.  Solid defensively with Sanders in the middle..but there is very little offensive output from what I can see. 

Thanks for the write up. I am about to take a strong stand on the New York Knicks Under 50.5. Any more thoughts on the Knicks? Thanks

I think the Sixers will go over 16. Thinking along the lines of 22-61.

GL, sub

SOUTHEAST DIVISION

1.  Miami Heat  64-18  (66-16 last year)

I don't think they will reach last year's win total for a few reasons.  They are older...they didn't add any youth unless you want to count Beasley or Oden, and I don't...2 straight championships and a focus only on winning the 3rd...probably going to go into Spurs mode in March/April in order to preserve their health.  Still the best team in basketball with the best player in basketball.

2.  Atlanta Hawks  44-38  (44-38 last year)

2nd place by default in this pitiful excuse for a division.  They lost Josh Smith and gained Paul Milsap.  If Jeff Teague continues to improve as a point guard and can distribute the ball as well as he did last year I see no reason why they won't be in the playoffs.  The big negatives is that they don't have a lick of depth in the backcourt and they don't have any true leadership.  Stevenson can come in and give them energy...and Brand should still be able to contribute nicely.  Not a terrible team by any stretch.

3.  Washington Wizards  40-42  (29-53 last year)

Interesting team here.  Last year they played pretty well at home having a winning record, but were just beyond awful on the road.  They did very well ATS finishing 7th in the league.  I like their backcourt with Wall and Beal...both should look to make a big jump this year.  Down low isn't too bad either with Okafor and Nene.  Good 3 point shooting with Beal and Webster and Ariza.  I just can't put them completely in the playoff picture yet.  I think they need one more year to play together and get comfortable.  They have to play better against the Eastern Conference which is far inferior to the West. 

4.  Charlotte Bobcats  30-52  (21-61 last year)

A lot of good things and positive thinking in Charlotte this year.  I'm bumping them up 9 wins this year because of rebounding.  They ranked 27th in RPG and 29th in rebounding differential.  So they went out and drafted Cody Zeller and brought in Al Jefferson.  Kemba Walker, Kidd-Gilchrest, and Henderson have enough offensive talent to be competitive.  Kemba has to find a way to be the distributor in the backcourt and trust the big boys inside to get the job done. 

5.  Orlando Magic  18-64  (20-62 last year)

I think they got the best college player in the country.  That's about where the positive things end for the 2013-14 Orlando Magic.  A ton of players under 25 years old...no veteran leadership...not enough scorers...not enough defensive studs...not enough talent from top to bottom.  Most exciting thing about this team is watching Victor Oladipo on both ends of the court.

I'm not a huge fan of that wager...they should definitely be right around the 50 win mark simply because you know Carmelo had a crazy streak every year.  JR Smith didn't get the money he wanted and has his knee issues...nobody knows how that will affect things.

Im worried that sitting out Noel won't really help him that much.  When you have to have rookies and guys like Spencer Hawes as your best players it's not a good sign

EASTERN PLAYOFFS

1.  Miami Heat
2.  Indiana Pacers
3.  Brooklyn Nets
4.  Chicago Bulls
5.  New York Knicks
6.  Detroit Pistons
7.  Atlanta Hawks
8.  Toronto Raptors

1.  Miami def. 8. Toronto
2.  Indiana def. 7.  Atlanta
3.  Brooklyn def. 6. Detroit
4.  Chicago  def.  5.  New York

1.  Miami  def  4.  Chicago
2.  Indiana def. 3.  Brooklyn

1. Miami def 2. Indiana

NORTHWEST DIVISION

1.  Oklahoma City Thunder 58-24  (60-22 last year)

Dropping the Thunder down a couple of wins, and I wanted to drop them down even more.  Unfortunately I just don't see a lot of competition within their own division to take things over.  They don't have a solid top 6...but their top 2/3 is obviously at the top of the league.  They lost in the playoffs last year because they went up against a top level defense and they didn't have enough scorers once KD and Westbrook struggle.  Now they lose Kevin Martin and replace him with nothing?  Like I said all throughout this thread, you need to have at least 6 deep to make a true run...if you don't have that many guys that can step up on offense, you can't win.  The Thunder will be fine in the regular season because of that top 2...but I am not sold on them making a deep run unless Durant averages 40 a game.

2.  Denver Nuggets 50-32  (57-25 last year)

Dropping the Nuggets down quite a bit as well.  Won a ton of games last year because of a great home court advantage and the ability to be the deepest team in the league.  6 players averaged 10+ points per game, and nobody averaged 20 points per game.  However I feel as though the loss of Iguodala will hurt them quite a bit.  Adding in Hickson and Robinson will add some energy off the bench, but not so much in the defensive area of the game, and that's where they struggle.  Brian Shaw's first year with the team as well, and I will be very interested to see what style he embraces.

3.  Minnesota Timberwolves  45-37  (31-51 last year)

Giving this young team the jump up into the playoff mix.  I'm very excited to see a full season out of Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio finally.  Love is a top 5 player in the league when healthy, and I'm expecting 24-13 out of him on average.  I like the addition of Kevin Martin as a bench scorer and the Wolves should be putting up over 100 per game with the lineup they have.  Defensively last year they were pretty good...top 5 in steals and forced the second most turnovers per game. 

4.  Portland Trailblazers  37-45  (33-49 last year)

Lillard proved himself to be a top level point guard last year winning rookie of the year by a good margin.  Bumping them up a couple of wins based on the assumption that Mo Williams is able to stop his declining stats and get a little bit closer to his Cleveland days.  I like their backcourt obviously, and with Leonard and Aldridge down low they have a fairly decent frontcourt.  I just don't think they have the scoring depth needed to really contend for anything in the deep Western conference.  Only 5 players averaged over 10 points per game, and they lost one of them. 

5.  Utah Jazz  28-54  (43-39 last year)

Huge dropoff for the Jazz this year because they lost their top two players in Jefferson and MIllsap.  I'm not sold on Gordon Hayward being able to step up and carry more of the offensive load.  Favors is a darn good player...but this team just isn't that good right now.  Might contend for one of the worst defensive teams in the league as they have no inside presence.  In the Western Conference that spells trouble no matter how you look at it.

PACIFIC DIVISION

1.  Los Angeles Clippers 59-23  (56-26 last year)

The Doc Rivers effect will bump them up a few wins this year.  Very solid starting lineup and one of the best sixth men in the league with Crawford.  Excitement with Paul and Griffin and Jordan.  Now with a veteran championship coach pushing them along the entire way.  The Clippers were inside the top 10 in just about every defensive category last season, which was a big surprise to me but the most important was turnovers.  They forced the most amount of turnovers per game.  This team thrives off the fast break and with JJ Redick giving them a little more offensive stability, I love the Clippers to be even more serious contenders this season.

2.  Golden State Warriors  54-28  (47-35 last year)

Without a doubt the most fun team to watch play this year.  Steph Curry is a beast, Iguodala brings in even more excitement with his slash and drive game as well as the fast break skills.  I am also interested to see how much of an impact Seth Curry has on this team.  Does Jermaine O'Neal have anything left in the tank?  Either way the fact remains that this is the best starting five from top to bottom in the NBA right now.  They can go inside if they need to...and without a doubt the most deadly outside game we may have ever seen.  They got their playoff licks in last year, and may be ready for another deep run this year. 

3.  Los Angeles Lakers  31-51  (45-37 last year)

Losing Dwight Howard and the entire saga that came along with it was a slap in the face to this organization.  Now they have to rely on a broken Kobe Bryant, an aging Pau Gasol, and about 10 bench players that will have to seriously contribute to this team this year.  Don't forget the coach that doesn't like to preach defense and one of the worst defensive teams on paper in recent history.  The Lakers will have to put up 105-110 per game in order to be successful this year.  Give Kobe 25 per game and Pau 20.  That means that they would need 10 per game out of their next 6 guys...Nash, Nick Young, Steve Blake, Jodie Meeks, Kaman, and....Kelly?  I can see Nash and Young putting up 10 a game, but nobody else on that list will sniff it.  They will be hard pressed to get to 100 per game, and I don't think they will be able to hold teams that low.  I would hold out Kobe for as long as possible and hope they are terrible.

4.  Sacramento Kings 29-53  (28-54 last year)

I'll bump them up a win out of pity and the fact that these young players will have to mature at least a little bit...and I like McLemore's offensive potential.  But the fact remains that when it's all said and done they don't have a stud to go to in crunch time, they don't have a true identity.  They also don't have a distributor of the ball...only 20 assists per game last year and not a single person above 4.0 assists per.  I'm also still not certain Boogie Cousins really is an All-Star level player.

5.  Phoenix Suns  13-69  (25-57 last year)

I look at this roster and I honestly think it's a sideshow.  Come see the Morris twins!!  We have Ish, Goran, and Vyacheslov!!  It's Christmas all year long!!  Their two best players in my mind are Eric Bledsoe and Marcin Gortat...and they are borderline starters on any other team in the league.  I'm donating them the worst record in the league and more than likely Andrew Wiggins.  They averaged a piss poor 95 points per game last year, and got rid of 5 of their top 10 scorers.  Alex Len might be able to replace 10 or so of those points, but he seriously needs to beef up and get tough down low.  That'll be their high point this year.

Nice write-ups, I took over in Warriors 51.5 for the year large and put a little on the Clippers +400 to win the west and the Warriors +1000 to win the west.

NICE JOB



I REALLY THINK BOSTON WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 WINS THEN 30 WINS.

CLEV WILL FINISH AHEAD OF DET

TORONTO  WILL HAVE  4 TO 6 MORE WINS THEN YOU PREDICTED



GL THIS YEAR BUDDY

I love the Warriors OVER bet....and will be releasing my season long bets at the end of the thread.

Behind the Thunder and Spurs...the Clippers and Warriors should be #3 and 4 in all Western Conference bets.

Thanks for the thoughts Puck...but who do the Cavaliers have as offensive options beyond Kyrie?  Late game, close game if the opposition has a defensive lockdown guy I just can't see them getting the job done.

SOUTHWEST DIVISION

1.  Houston Rockets  55-27  (45-37 last year)

Giving them the benefit of the doubt with Howard and Harden.  I expect them to be what Lakers fans thought Howard and Kobe would be.  If Howard can't figure out how to play with passion and develop low post moves with Kevin McHale in town and Olajuwon advising him as well...then he never will.  Lin isn't a top tier point guard, but he is consistent which is good.  I like their ability to spread the ball around the 3-point line as well...only Harden was a driving type player, so his production might drop a good amount with the big man in the way.

2.  Memphis Grizzlies  54-38  (56-26 last year)

Very good top 6 players, and their bench is mostly composed of NBA veterans who have been well traveled and know how to compete in the league.  They got their playoff chops over the past couple years, and now have the hunger to push through that next step.  I view this team as the same as the Pacers in the East in a lot of ways.  They both have a superstar player (Gasol and George) and dominating defense.  Not that exciting on offense, but they don't need to be.  Put the Pacers with more wins because I think their offense is better.

3.  San Antonio Spurs  49-33  (58-24 last year)

Last year of serious title contention IMO.  Duncan, Ginobili, Parker are going to start to fall off physically at some point, and I think this is the year we start to see that.  Green and Leonard are good younger players who have shown the ability to step up, but I think they need a little bit more.  Still a good team with a great coach that will be in the playoffs and will win a lot of games.

4.  New Orleans HorniPelicanets  39-43  (27-55 last year)

Another vastly improved team.  Anthony Davis is looking to be a legitimate all-star caliber player...they brought in Tyreke Evans for additional offense which they desperately needed.  They brought in Jrue Holiday who is a very shifty point guard who can distribute when needed and score when needed.  I obviously can't put them fully in the playoff hunt yet...but they should be there next year with another solid offseason.

5.  Dallas Mavericks  36-46  (41-41 last year)

Just like the Spurs continuing to drop off due to age, I think this is a sad year for Mavericks fans.  Dirk is a Hall of Famer...but he is also 35 years old and won't be able to play the minutes necessary for them to contend.  Monta Ellis and Devin Harris need to find a way to produce like they used to be able to.  Biggest issue that I see with the Mavs is their inside presence.  They don't have one.  Dalembert and Wright  are long and lanky and that doesn't match up well against Gasol, Howard, Griffin, McGee, Love, and most of the other Western big men.