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LAL @ MEM

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Posted: #26
Yes this makes alot of sense. taking Memphis -4 also big!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thank you for the info Yo!
 
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Posted: #27
 lakers will cover and may even win this game...
 
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Posted: #28

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



I chalk it up to a large number of people who are still betting LAL to "turn this thing around" tonight. I mean look at the thread by 2Team_Parlay on page 2 right now -- people are still taking the Lakers despite all evidence to the contrary.

I think sometimes the books give us "gift" lines because they know they will get equal action on an extremely public side. The Lakers are still a hugely public side and will bring in action due to their personnel and this belief that, hey, eventually they have to start winning, right?

That's my best assumption. I don't want to overthink this one though and when I capped this thing at -7.5 or -8 and it comes out at -4, I'll take the perceived value of 3.5-4 points every single time, even if it is a "trap" line

My only worry is that there's something wrong with Memphis.  They've lost 4 out of their last 6. 

 
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Posted: #29
I don't like how public is on Memphis and line went down 1.5 points tho. At the same time can not place money on this faker team ATM
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by composite:

My only worry is that there's something wrong with Memphis.  They've lost 4 out of their last 6. 



Yes but look who they lost to -- DAL, LAC, SAS, and IND. Those are not poor squads in any stretch of the imagination. They also beat CHI in CHI during that stretch. MEM should be fine, I don't think those 4 of 6 losses are indicative of any downswing for them, although I do worry that they got blown out in three of those games (DAL, LAC, SAS). The LAC and IND games were at home and are more surprising than their road losses to DAL and SAS in my mind.
 
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Posted: #31
 
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Posted: #32

Excellent write up Kapono! I'm on the exact same page and 100% agree with everything you said...which is why I went big on MEM.

The reason the line is so low...is because every moron that pays attention to only ESPN and the media still thinks the Lakers are "due" and can turn it around. So many Laker fanboys too, I'm from NYC and live in STL now...in the midwest everyone that doesnt have a home team loveslovesloves MIA and LAL. They're also the degenerates that keep tossing cash on LAL.

This is a gimme for the cappers, a trap for the public, and a hustle for the bookies.

Good luck tonight man, pound that SAC bet too as SAC is good at home, and PHO is terrible on the road (plus Jermaine O'Neal out today for discipline issues).

 
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Posted: #33

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



Yes but look who they lost to -- DAL, LAC, SAS, and IND. Those are not poor squads in any stretch of the imagination. They also beat CHI in CHI during that stretch. MEM should be fine, I don't think those 4 of 6 losses are indicative of any downswing for them, although I do worry that they got blown out in three of those games (DAL, LAC, SAS). The LAC and IND games were at home and are more surprising than their road losses to DAL and SAS in my mind.

All of those losses were to playoff contenders...3/4 to title contenders. IF LAL can turn it around, this would be the game to show me...I think after this blowout the lines start moving to +6-7 for LAL every game not against CHA, 76ers, NO, etc.

 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



I chalk it up to a large number of people who are still betting LAL to "turn this thing around" tonight. I mean look at the thread by 2Team_Parlay on page 2 right now -- people are still taking the Lakers despite all evidence to the contrary.

I think sometimes the books give us "gift" lines because they know they will get equal action on an extremely public side. The Lakers are still a hugely public side and will bring in action due to their personnel and this belief that, hey, eventually they have to start winning, right?

That's my best assumption. I don't want to overthink this one though and when I capped this thing at -7.5 or -8 and it comes out at -4, I'll take the perceived value of 3.5-4 points every single time, even if it is a "trap" line
great points Kap, back in Nov. Grizz was -4,5 at home to Lakers in that one and i think tonights spread is where it is,is probably because Memphis been struggling a bit lately.i also believe that if books set line at 7.5 or 8 alot of the action would be on Lakers.i really dont believe it is a "gift".now i could be wrong with my points but will i be backing Lakers anytime soon? hell NO!!At -7.5 i would have probably avoided this game but at -4 i will be on Grizz pretty big. GL my friend 
 
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Posted: #35
Lakers suck balls theres no doubt, but this isnt a horrible matchup for them. An equally slow team with an equally shitty bench. We'll see. 
 
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Posted: #36
Kapono, any thoughts on OKC/GS total tonight? i dont think OKC will repeat last nights performance in 3pt shooting and travel/tired legs may be an issue for them tonight. so i lean heavily to the under but havent pulled the trigger yet.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by tonydan:

Kapono, any thoughts on OKC/GS total tonight? i dont think OKC will repeat last nights performance in 3pt shooting and travel/tired legs may be an issue for them tonight. so i lean heavily to the under but havent pulled the trigger yet.



Haven't taken a look at it yet to be honest, but I'll let you know if I see any potential angle on either the over or under
 
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Posted: #38
Interesting viewpoint.  Seem to be opposite.  Might check what I wrote at the other site.  GL
 
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Posted: #39
The line has been too low for the LAL every game.  last game they were only +1 in Chicago.  I also agree with kapono.  We are getting good lines against LA since they are a public team that people like to bet so as long as Vegas is getting equal money, they do not care if the line is off.  And for the X amount a times this year, it is off for a LA game.  Just like last game vs Chicago
 
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Posted: #40
Adding Sacramento Kings -3
 
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Posted: #41

I thought Memphis would be -6 or -7 myself. 

 

I hate it when I'm off by that much.  I feel like I'm missing something. 

 
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Posted: #42
Lakers were -5 at Toronto.  +1 at Chicago (w/o Deng).  I think +4 at Memphis is actually about right, unless bookies have adjusted Laker power rankings. 
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by thatsagoodone:

I thought Memphis would be -6 or -7 myself. 

 

I hate it when I'm off by that much.  I feel like I'm missing something. 



I understand that feeling too, but I've examined this thing every which way from Sunday and have no idea what (if anything) we are missing. This is just a bad line by the books IMO
 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



I understand that feeling too, but I've examined this thing every which way from Sunday and have no idea what (if anything) we are missing. This is just a bad line by the books IMO

Perhaps at -6, Lakers would've been pounded.  At -4, they get split action.  Could be that simple.  LOL

 

 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Did you know that of PHX's 17 road losses, 15 were by more than 3.5 points?

Did you know that of SAC's 12 home wins, 8 have been by more than 3.5 points?

Someone talk me out of SAC -3.5 tonight.


I can't because I like the Queens as well.

This Memphis line makes no sense to me.  But I said the same thing about the line when LAL played the Bulls.  
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by thatsagoodone:

Perhaps at -6, Lakers would've been pounded.  At -4, they get split action.  Could be that simple.  LOL

 




I know a few books opened it at 5.5 and moved quickly to 4.5 and 4 so you may be right.


 
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Posted: #47

Lakers have "clear-the-air" meeting earlier today.  Among other things, Kobe allegedly asked Dwight if he disliked playing w/ him.  (is this ish for real?)

Don't know if that means anything, but I figured I'd share b/c more info is always better.

https://www.latimes.com/sports/lakersnow/la-sp-ln-lakers-meeting-20130123,0,5793715.story

 

 

 
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Posted: #48
I read the rest of the thread and what you have posted here is almost EXACTLY the conversation I had with a guy here at work (fellow degen).  Not sure if that's just  or a good sign.

GL tonight.  
 
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Posted: #49
what about the fact that memphis traded like 3 people off their bench? what is their rotation now? are they playing a ton of d-leaguer/rookies?
 
 
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Posted: #50
nice writeup, my POD could have been this one without checking Lakers news. they had a meetning, and Kobe asked Howard directly if he don't like to play with him. some guys involving in that meeting mentioned they would start their brand new season. well, i don't trust stuffs like that, but current line is weird to me. if Lakers win outright, it would not be surprsing. maybe no play, anyway GL
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