Posted:
#1
I'm going two units on Memphis Grizzlies -4.
I was shocked when I saw this line as I had it on my own estimates at -7.5 or -8. Memphis has already beaten LAL by 8 this year back on November 23 and quite honestly, I can't really think of too many situations where this 5-14 road record LAL team should be catching less than 6 points in any road situation, especially one in which they are playing their 3rd road game in four days.
There is also pretty clearly some dissent within the ranks -- Kobe is unhappy with D'Antoni, Pau is unhappy with D'Antoni, Kobe is unhappy with Dwight and vice versa... this is not a team that is going to be able to "win one for the team" and has such good chemistry that they can flip the switch and all of a sudden start playing together like, I dunno, a team like Memphis does.
Add in the fact that you KNOW you will get a good defense effort from Memphis, especially at home. MEM allows the second least points per game in the league (89.4) while the Lakers give up 101.4 per game on average. Is MEM, with all the pressure they generate on the perimeter, really the type of team that LAL is going to "bounce back" against from an offensive perspective? If MEM keeps running their sets on offense, eventually the LAL defense WILL break down. They are undisciplined. We have seen it all year.
I also have no idea how LAL will try to stop the Z-Bo/Gasol combo if they are unwilling to play Gasol and D-12 at the same time, and it seems like D'Antoni has reached that decision. You really think Earl Clark or Antawn Jamison can stop Z-Bo or Gasol on the block?
Tony Allen will b able to make it very difficult for Kobe on the perimeter, and I have no idea how LAL stops penetration into the lane unless they put Kobe on Conley. Even then, Tony Allen could blow by Nash on the wing if they do that.
Another factor favoring MEM tonight: the referees, always important but never forgotten. Let's look at the crew being rolled out for this game: Fehr, Goble, and Kennedy. As a combined crew, they are 59-38 SU for the home squad and 57-40 ATS for the home team. That's the cherry on the sundae for me.
Memphis has been at home in their own beds since Sunday, while LAL has traveled from TOR to CHI to MEM during that same time span. Will they have tired legs? I think so.
LAL is still getting tons of "name value" respect, which is completely misplaced. This line should be MEM -7.5 or -8. I'll lay the 4 and take the value.
I was shocked when I saw this line as I had it on my own estimates at -7.5 or -8. Memphis has already beaten LAL by 8 this year back on November 23 and quite honestly, I can't really think of too many situations where this 5-14 road record LAL team should be catching less than 6 points in any road situation, especially one in which they are playing their 3rd road game in four days.
There is also pretty clearly some dissent within the ranks -- Kobe is unhappy with D'Antoni, Pau is unhappy with D'Antoni, Kobe is unhappy with Dwight and vice versa... this is not a team that is going to be able to "win one for the team" and has such good chemistry that they can flip the switch and all of a sudden start playing together like, I dunno, a team like Memphis does.
Add in the fact that you KNOW you will get a good defense effort from Memphis, especially at home. MEM allows the second least points per game in the league (89.4) while the Lakers give up 101.4 per game on average. Is MEM, with all the pressure they generate on the perimeter, really the type of team that LAL is going to "bounce back" against from an offensive perspective? If MEM keeps running their sets on offense, eventually the LAL defense WILL break down. They are undisciplined. We have seen it all year.
I also have no idea how LAL will try to stop the Z-Bo/Gasol combo if they are unwilling to play Gasol and D-12 at the same time, and it seems like D'Antoni has reached that decision. You really think Earl Clark or Antawn Jamison can stop Z-Bo or Gasol on the block?
Tony Allen will b able to make it very difficult for Kobe on the perimeter, and I have no idea how LAL stops penetration into the lane unless they put Kobe on Conley. Even then, Tony Allen could blow by Nash on the wing if they do that.
Another factor favoring MEM tonight: the referees, always important but never forgotten. Let's look at the crew being rolled out for this game: Fehr, Goble, and Kennedy. As a combined crew, they are 59-38 SU for the home squad and 57-40 ATS for the home team. That's the cherry on the sundae for me.
Memphis has been at home in their own beds since Sunday, while LAL has traveled from TOR to CHI to MEM during that same time span. Will they have tired legs? I think so.
LAL is still getting tons of "name value" respect, which is completely misplaced. This line should be MEM -7.5 or -8. I'll lay the 4 and take the value.
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