Posted:
#1
I think I'm leaning strong to DEN and the OVER in tonight's game -- here's why:
1. The box score from game 1 tells an interesting story. DEN got to the line 27 times, with 8 players getting to the line for at least two free throws. That tells us that DEN was being very aggressive with taking the ball to the rim (also told to us by the fact that they had 15 (!) shots blocked, 10 by Bynum). What about LAL? They shot 15 free throws with 11 of them coming from Kobe -- that means only two other guys got to the line for LAL. That screams "jump shots" to me as opposed to taking it hard to the rim, which is not a surprise if you've watched LAL this year at all. The playoffs tend to favor the aggressive offensive teams as opposed to jump shooting teams.
2. Let's take a gander at the refs for tonight -- Stern is sending out Pat Fraher, Monty McCutchen, and Tom Washington. These stats will blow your mind: those three refs are a combined ATS of 22-4-2 for the last 10 DEN games they have called, and an astounding 6-24 ATS for the last 10 LAL games. That's unreal and makes you wonder if its just random noise in the data or something to consider in factoring out how tonight's game will go. Those numbers (22-4-2 and 6-24) are so far from the expected mean it makes me believe that it is not just a random blip in the data but might be hiding certain biases by these referees.
3. DEN shot the ball very poorly on Sunday, with Afflalo, Lawson, and Harrington going 10-36 from the field. I anticipate that there should be an uptick in that this game as those three are pretty solid players who tend to shoot the ball better than that on average.
4. Last time that DEN played LAL twice in a row, they lost the first game by 3 and followed it up with a 9 point victory. Deja vu?
5. The pace in the game on Sunday has to favor DEN and the OVER you figure. Neither team shot the ball from deep particularly well, but a total of 176 shots is a lot of shots. Prior DEN/LAL games this year: total of 167, 153, 159, and 166 shots. DEN knows they need to push the pace and keep the tempo high to have a shot, they'll get destroyed if they play a half court game, they don't have the size to match LAL in the interior in a slow it down game.
6. Let's take a look at some of the quotes from DEN players about tonight's game:
Kenneth Faried: "''Yeah, but we help him a lot, too,'' said Denver forward Kenneth Faried, who had 10 points and eight rebounds in his NBA playoff debut. ''We step inside, and he basically gets 3 clear seconds (in the paint). We just have to get back to what we're used to doing, just getting up and down the floor and enjoying ourselves. ... If we get outside the (paint), Bynum can get caught for 3 seconds, because he does sit there a lot, just posts there like a tree and blocks a lot. He's got to move with us, and that takes him out of the middle.''"
Danilo Gallinari: "''We have to be more aware when he's in the paint, and we have to try to make the extra passes better,'' said Danilo Gallinari, who led the Nuggets with 19 points. ''We have to move the ball, and shoot before he gets there.''"
More quotes:
Ty Lawson: ""We talked about bouncing back, about coming out more aggressive," Lawson said Monday before practice. "I think we're both on the same page. ... I was being tentative, wasn't attacking and that hasn't been my game. ... And Arron, he can't wait to step on the court. He wishes the game was right now. He's a battler. He's going to come back stronger.""
7. Jordan Hill, who had a solid game last Sunday, is now going to be dealing with the national spotlight after being charged for abusing his girlfriend while in HOU. Might effect how he plays tonight.
8. I think its fair to say that George Karl is a better game to game adjustments coach than Mike Brown. I expect Karl to have a few new wrinkles to throw at LAL tonight, especially on the defensive end.
9. Potential let-down game for Andrew Bynum, who is probably thinking that he is hot shit right about now after his triple double on Sunday.
Anyone have any thoughts to add about this game?
1. The box score from game 1 tells an interesting story. DEN got to the line 27 times, with 8 players getting to the line for at least two free throws. That tells us that DEN was being very aggressive with taking the ball to the rim (also told to us by the fact that they had 15 (!) shots blocked, 10 by Bynum). What about LAL? They shot 15 free throws with 11 of them coming from Kobe -- that means only two other guys got to the line for LAL. That screams "jump shots" to me as opposed to taking it hard to the rim, which is not a surprise if you've watched LAL this year at all. The playoffs tend to favor the aggressive offensive teams as opposed to jump shooting teams.
2. Let's take a gander at the refs for tonight -- Stern is sending out Pat Fraher, Monty McCutchen, and Tom Washington. These stats will blow your mind: those three refs are a combined ATS of 22-4-2 for the last 10 DEN games they have called, and an astounding 6-24 ATS for the last 10 LAL games. That's unreal and makes you wonder if its just random noise in the data or something to consider in factoring out how tonight's game will go. Those numbers (22-4-2 and 6-24) are so far from the expected mean it makes me believe that it is not just a random blip in the data but might be hiding certain biases by these referees.
3. DEN shot the ball very poorly on Sunday, with Afflalo, Lawson, and Harrington going 10-36 from the field. I anticipate that there should be an uptick in that this game as those three are pretty solid players who tend to shoot the ball better than that on average.
4. Last time that DEN played LAL twice in a row, they lost the first game by 3 and followed it up with a 9 point victory. Deja vu?
5. The pace in the game on Sunday has to favor DEN and the OVER you figure. Neither team shot the ball from deep particularly well, but a total of 176 shots is a lot of shots. Prior DEN/LAL games this year: total of 167, 153, 159, and 166 shots. DEN knows they need to push the pace and keep the tempo high to have a shot, they'll get destroyed if they play a half court game, they don't have the size to match LAL in the interior in a slow it down game.
6. Let's take a look at some of the quotes from DEN players about tonight's game:
Kenneth Faried: "''Yeah, but we help him a lot, too,'' said Denver forward Kenneth Faried, who had 10 points and eight rebounds in his NBA playoff debut. ''We step inside, and he basically gets 3 clear seconds (in the paint). We just have to get back to what we're used to doing, just getting up and down the floor and enjoying ourselves. ... If we get outside the (paint), Bynum can get caught for 3 seconds, because he does sit there a lot, just posts there like a tree and blocks a lot. He's got to move with us, and that takes him out of the middle.''"
Danilo Gallinari: "''We have to be more aware when he's in the paint, and we have to try to make the extra passes better,'' said Danilo Gallinari, who led the Nuggets with 19 points. ''We have to move the ball, and shoot before he gets there.''"
More quotes:
Ty Lawson: ""We talked about bouncing back, about coming out more aggressive," Lawson said Monday before practice. "I think we're both on the same page. ... I was being tentative, wasn't attacking and that hasn't been my game. ... And Arron, he can't wait to step on the court. He wishes the game was right now. He's a battler. He's going to come back stronger.""
7. Jordan Hill, who had a solid game last Sunday, is now going to be dealing with the national spotlight after being charged for abusing his girlfriend while in HOU. Might effect how he plays tonight.
8. I think its fair to say that George Karl is a better game to game adjustments coach than Mike Brown. I expect Karl to have a few new wrinkles to throw at LAL tonight, especially on the defensive end.
9. Potential let-down game for Andrew Bynum, who is probably thinking that he is hot shit right about now after his triple double on Sunday.
Anyone have any thoughts to add about this game?
0
and greatly helps me pull the trigger
when I first added them up
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