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Let's talk about DEN/LAL tonight

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haha at  # 9
 
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Posted: #28
so with all that said .. the OVER is the play for tonight ?? everyone is all over the Under .. im thinking over with the write up u gave .. any1 else ? 
 
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Posted: #29
I ended up going with Denver +5 and the OVER 201.5


 
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Posted: #30
The lakers are 4-0 against Denver this year.  One of those losses is when Denver was fighting for a playoff spot, with Kobe out.  The Nuggets have absolutely no answer for Bynum as some of his biggest games have come against Denver.  

You can use the free throw advantage in Denver favor, but how can you use that and completely ignore the fact for the 4th straight game this year Lakers have outscored Denver big time in the paint.  This is going to change this game how? 

The lakers cause huge matchup problems for smaller teams.  If you look back at lakers playoff record they have crushed running teams.  

 
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Posted: #31
i am waiting to get 5x or maybe even 6. took denver game 1 can't flip flop now
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by Lurped:

The lakers are 4-0 against Denver this year.  One of those losses is when Denver was fighting for a playoff spot, with Kobe out.  The Nuggets have absolutely no answer for Bynum as some of his biggest games have come against Denver.  

You can use the free throw advantage in Denver favor, but how can you use that and completely ignore the fact for the 4th straight game this year Lakers have outscored Denver big time in the paint.  This is going to change this game how? 

The lakers cause huge matchup problems for smaller teams.  If you look back at lakers playoff record they have crushed running teams.  



Lakers are 4-1 against Denver this year. Are you saying their one loss was when Denver was fighting mightily for a playoff spot way back on January 1, 2012? Kobe wasn't out for that DEN victory btw, he shot 6-28 that game. In fact, let's look at Kobe's shooting in his five games against Denver this year:

12/31/11: 6-18 from the field, 0-5 from 3PT, 5-6 FT
01/01/12: 6-28 from the field, 1-8 from 3PT, 3-4 FT
02/03/12: 7-23 from the field, 1-4 from 3PT, 5-7 FT
04/13/12: Kobe out
04/29/12: 11-24 from the field, 0-2 from 3PT, 9-11 FT

Prior to last night, when matched up against one of the best on-ball perimeter defenders in the league (Arron Afflalo), Kobe went a combined 19-69 for a blistering 27% field goal percentage and 2-17 from 3PT for a nice paltry 12% 3 point percentage. He has a decent game last night (shoots four more FTs than normal) and all of a sudden Kobe is some sort of Denver Nuggets killer? Come on now.
 
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Posted: #33
hill out for lakers and nuggs going up and down the floor to shoot before bynum and gasol get set in the paint. waiting for 6 and taking the over. good thread kapo.
 
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Posted: #34

Quote Originally Posted by tennistudly:

hill out for lakers and nuggs going up and down the floor to shoot before bynum and gasol get set in the paint. waiting for 6 and taking the over. good thread kapo.

 

Everything I have seen says that Hill will be playing tonight.  Please post source if you saw different.

 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by Lurped:

The lakers are 4-0 against Denver this year.  One of those losses is when Denver was fighting for a playoff spot, with Kobe out.  The Nuggets have absolutely no answer for Bynum as some of his biggest games have come against Denver.  

You can use the free throw advantage in Denver favor, but how can you use that and completely ignore the fact for the 4th straight game this year Lakers have outscored Denver big time in the paint.  This is going to change this game how? 

The lakers cause huge matchup problems for smaller teams.  If you look back at lakers playoff record they have crushed running teams.  



Points in the paint in the five games these teams have played:

04/29/12: LAL 64, DEN 44
04/13/12: DEN 68, LAL 40
02/03/12: LAL 46, DEN 40
01/01/12: LAL 48, DEN 46
12/31/11: LAL 46, DEN 32

Not too large of a disparity in the Feb 3/Jan 1 games, LAL with significant points in paint advantage on two games, DEN with significant advantage on one.
 
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Posted: #36
GREAT STUFF ! Best post in months ! Thanks Kapono.
It's not a mystery why those three were sent to LA tonight.
 
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Posted: #37
LA ML
 
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Posted: #38
LA -4.5 & LA ML -210 for me, don't over think this one
 
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Posted: #39
thanks for sharing Kapono!
 
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Posted: #40
any one betting on Denver  must be an idiotic moron of astronomical proportions ..... Denver is as inconsistent as can be, today more of the same of last game
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by shark_apreza:

any one betting on Denver  must be an idiotic moron of astronomical proportions ..... Denver is as inconsistent as can be, today more of the same of last game


and the lakers are a model of consistency?
 
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Posted: #42
Can I just say that the certainty of some posters regarding their LAL bets is just further reinforcing my belief that the value is on DEN in this game? Shark, we may agree about Sunny Lane, but if you think that someone on Denver must be "an idiotic moron of astronomical proportions"... man, we'll just have to agree to disagree on that one.  Plus, if Denver is inconsistent like you say, why would you expect them to be consistent in this game in connection to what they did last game? That's inherently incongruous.

LAL beats DEN by 15 taking control of the game early in the 1Q and never really letting go in a game they were favored by -4.5 ... now the next game they are only favored by 5? The books have to know that money is going to POUR in on the Lakers... and I think they are OK with all that money coming in on LAL this game.
 
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Posted: #43
Agree with your leans. Public is all OVER Lakers because all they can think about is the Bynum block party and how big of a size advantage the Lakers have inside. The Nuggets and OVER go hand-in-hand because the only way Den has a shot is if they push the tempo HARD. Bynum has a really bad habit of lazily jogging back on defense, and if I noticed it, I'm sure the DEN coaching staff has as well. Look for the Nuggets to push hard and push often and if their shots are going down, could mean trouble for LAL.
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by blocksnbooze:

Agree with your leans. Public is all OVER Lakers because all they can think about is the Bynum block party and how big of a size advantage the Lakers have inside. The Nuggets and OVER go hand-in-hand because the only way Den has a shot is if they push the tempo HARD. Bynum has a really bad habit of lazily jogging back on defense, and if I noticed it, I'm sure the DEN coaching staff has as well. Look for the Nuggets to push hard and push often and if their shots are going down, could mean trouble for LAL.

So it has nothing to do with the public taking the better team with a better record and arguably the best closer in the game today? I think Kapono made some great points and I love fading the public in these spots but that doesn't always translate to a win. Either way place your bet and may the better team win tonight. I just think if you#like Denver wait until they are in Denver catching 1-2 points at home. This is NOT a good spot for them, Lakers smell blood and if this young teams shots aren't falling it could be a blood bath for Denver. GL either way
 
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Posted: #45
 
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Posted: #46
Great write up Kap43

I have a play on Lakers -5.5 and another on the over BUT

now gonna make a stronger parlay play on Lake ML and over after reading your post. I think LAKERS win but now questioning the cover of 6 pts..

Good luck to all
 
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Posted: #47
I haven't checked this but I tend to trust 44dimes, another reason to like the OVER tonight:

"Let's not forget Denver has #1 ranked team in the NBA in points scored on the road. At the same time they are ranked 29th in points allowed away from home."
 
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Posted: #49
nice write up and thread kapono!  im taking the ov 201.5 tonight.  good luck tonight!
 
 
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Good luck Kap.

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