Mak's Saturday Night Live

Hey guys, early start only because I may not get back from a short trip before the 3:30 tip off where by boys from the North visit the boys with no depth.  So just posting analysis as promised for this game, and will be back around 6pm eastern with the remaining picks.  If I can get back before 3:30 I will post the two prop plays I am looking to play for the afternoon game.  Went 4-5 (SW = 3-2, PP = 1-1, 2H = 0-0) for a 3.75 unit loss.  As always gents, best of luck on all your wagers.  Peace - - - MAK

TORONTO RAPTORS + 6.5 (-119) - - - First let's clear up one thing right off the bat.  The Los Angeles Clippers are not a deep team.  Whomever said that on Covers, has lost a lot of my respect.  And it was a very reputable Covers member that stated this, one that I held the highest regard for.  But if you honestly think that the Clipps have any resemblance of depth, then you know nothing about NBA basketball and its players.  If the Clipps had depth, then Doc Rivers would not be playing his starting rotation an average of 38-41 minutes per game during this tumultuous recent scheduling stretch, he does it out of necessity.  The Los Angeles Clippers will be playing their league leading 18th game in the month of December.  They have played in 5 different timezones in their last 6 games and coming of a passionate revenge game vs their rival, tonight they play a team quite familiar with early afternoon/day games.  The Toronto Raptors were one of two Eastern teams to finish with a winning record against Western squads last year, and this year they boast a 6-2 record against the more powerful conference.  As I stated in the Bulls game, now begins their most pivotal stretch of games where they can prove to the league that they have not succeeded due to their favorable schedule, they have triumphed because of their poise & grit.  Without DeRozan the Raps have stunned the NBA by continuing their winning ways.  They were leading the Bulls throughout the game until a ridiculous 49 point 4th quarter propelled the Bulls to the victory.  I picked the Bulls to take down my Raps that night, but tonight the Raps begin their Western road swing against some dominant playoff teams.  Their time is now, their time to begin to prove once and for all, they are legit contenders to the East crown.  I believe the Raps will be there vs the Bulls in the conference finals unless the Cavs make a big move for a rim protector or the Wiz make a big move for a 6th man consistent scorer.  The Raps are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs a team with a winning record, are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games & are 22-8-2 in their last 32 games following a straight up loss.  The Clipps are 1-7 ATS at home against teams with a winning road record and are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a straight up win.  Fatigue was a factor vs GS, but adrenaline is a powerful force, tonight, that fatigue will seep in.  Lowry will actually outplay CP3.  If Fields plays, he is taller and fast enough to hold down Reddick, if not, Terence Ross will shut him down completely, and T.Ross did put up 51 points against the Clipps in a single game last season.  James Johnson would be better coming off the bench, but if he starts, he does not allow Barnes to do anything.  So the 1,2 & 3 positions belong to the Raps.  The only concern is Griffin.  I would prefer to see Hansborough guard him for a majority as I just do not think Amir has the girth and length to handle him.  DJ is a monster, but JV has been playing outstanding basketball and could quite possibly match him evenly or even outplay him offensively.  The bench is where it ends, Jamal Crawford will most likely see guys like Ross and James guard him, even the 6'6 Vasquez could cause him a few problems.  With Patterson, Vasquez & Sweet Lou, Crawford will not be able to outscore all 3 of them.  To me Farmer & Big Baby do not enter into my capping as they have had 1 good game in their last 10 outings.  Look, Raps could easily get owned on the boards and Blake could scorch em for 40.  But as long as Lowry outscores Paul and the defense of Ross and Johnson limit J.J and Crawford.  This will be a cover for my boys.  We The North.
4 UNITS DAMON "MIGHTY MOUSE" STOUDAMIRE - - - 

A few more straight wagers to come as well as player props. Good luck guys.

Damn I have Raptors too. Not sure how you got +6.5 at that juice. I wagered at +5.0. BOL.

you got +6.5? just wow, i see now +5, how people get more than opening line of spread i dont understand, may i ask which book did you get this line from?

I dont know where he got his spread from, but in most european books you can work the spread up and down as you wish.
If Toronto +5 is at 1,90 in bet365, the +6,5 is right now at  1,71. You can work it up until +13 and you'd have it at 1,25. The same with Clippers and the over/unders...

Thanks you very much for that write up and BOL, still undedcided.

LOOK AT THE ODDS ON 6.5 -119 NOT THE USUAL -110

MIL  +9 WON

Hey guys, thanks for your posts.  So there are a few options to getting reduced juice on specific NBA games.  You may notice, that I often buy the hook at -113 compared to major sportsbooks that would charge you around -117 just for the hook.  Paying 17% for a hook is ridiculous and I used to do it quite often when I first began wagering.  What I did was scour the internet for smaller up and coming online sportsbooks. I simply contact them, let them know I am willing to deposit a very large bankroll amount and keep it in their sportsbook for the entire NBA season while betting occasionally.  You have no idea what kind of bonuses, reduced juice and other offers these books are willing to provide if you offer this.  You see books make money on the vigor yes, but they also make a lot of money by placing the funds they receive in high interest bank accounts.  I do not want to promote any specific sportsbooks, but if you are interested and willing to do what I did, just pm me and I will happily provide the sportsbooks that are offering these incentives.  Another option to get reduced juice as well as alternative spreads is to look for sportsbooks that offer the ability to wager against others rather than directly with the book.  Just do a little research on the web or pm me.  In this particular case, I was able to purchase 1.5 from a book directly at 19% but had to play a minimum amount, my units in monetary terms are very high, I will never disclose the actual amount of my units, needless to say, this would have been a 2 unit bet, not a 4, but had to go for it to take advantage of the offer.  Hope that helped you guys, feel free to message me if you have any more questions.  See you guys in a little bit, peace.

Wish you luck sir. Thanks for all that info!

Onehitwonder - - - First off, you are wrong, but so am I.  It's SW = 2-3 not 3-2, my fault.  You missed the additions of Houston Rockets and Dallas.  Houston and Milwaukee were the hits for 4 units.  Orlando, Dallas and Indy were the loss for 8 units which is -4 total (that's 3 losses) and the 1-1 props were a 0.25 profit which made it a -3.75 night.  Your theory that adding to a wager makes it a separate loss is flawed.  If that was the case, then when I added to my GS bet 3 times on TNT Thursday a few weeks ago then it should have been a 4-0, I counted it as 1-0.  The only thing I forgot to add was the 1 unit live wager and that gets added to the YTD total which it was not.  That will be corrected immediately.  I like you keeping me on my toes, makes me feel good that someone is actually following my bets.  Just try to follow the way I add to my record consistently so you understand how I add/subtract from the record and totals.

Correction: 3-5 night (SW = 2-3, PP = 1-1, 2H = 0-0) plus a 1 unit live wager loss for a - 4.75 loss on Friday)

Also I just noticed the 2nd H stat was incorrect as I copied and pasted an older thread, it should be 1 unit less with an extra loss and that has also been corrected, my bad, just rushed through.
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Mak's 2014/2015 NBA Season Investments

SW = 82-80 (-2.75)
PP = 94-55 (+27.25)
2H = 24-14 (+4.50)
YTD = 200-154 (+26.75)

Juice Approximation Averages

SW = 12.25%
PP = 13.05%
2H = 10.20%
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Hello. What do you think about over 212 in toronto's game?

Quote Originally Posted by makaveli23:

TORONTO RAPTORS + 6.5 (-119) - - - First let's clear up one thing right off the bat.  The Los Angeles Clippers are not a deep team.  Whomever said that on Covers, has lost a lot of my respect.  And it was a very reputable Covers member that stated this, one that I held the highest regard for.  But if you honestly think that the Clipps have any resemblance of depth, then you know nothing about NBA basketball and its players.  If the Clipps had depth, then Doc Rivers would not be playing his starting rotation an average of 38-41 minutes per game during this tumultuous recent scheduling stretch, he does it out of necessity.  The Los Angeles Clippers will be playing their league leading 18th game in the month of December.  They have played in 5 different timezones in their last 6 games and coming of a passionate revenge game vs their rival, tonight they play a team quite familiar with early afternoon/day games.  The Toronto Raptors were one of two Eastern teams to finish with a winning record against Western squads last year, and this year they boast a 6-2 record against the more powerful conference.  As I stated in the Bulls game, now begins their most pivotal stretch of games where they can prove to the league that they have not succeeded due to their favorable schedule, they have triumphed because of their poise & grit.  Without DeRozan the Raps have stunned the NBA by continuing their winning ways.  They were leading the Bulls throughout the game until a ridiculous 49 point 4th quarter propelled the Bulls to the victory.  I picked the Bulls to take down my Raps that night, but tonight the Raps begin their Western road swing against some dominant playoff teams.  Their time is now, their time to begin to prove once and for all, they are legit contenders to the East crown.  I believe the Raps will be there vs the Bulls in the conference finals unless the Cavs make a big move for a rim protector or the Wiz make a big move for a 6th man consistent scorer.  The Raps are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs a team with a winning record, are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games & are 22-8-2 in their last 32 games following a straight up loss.  The Clipps are 1-7 ATS at home against teams with a winning road record and are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a straight up win.  Fatigue was a factor vs GS, but adrenaline is a powerful force, tonight, that fatigue will seep in.  Lowry will actually outplay CP3.  If Fields plays, he is taller and fast enough to hold down Reddick, if not, Terence Ross will shut him down completely, and T.Ross did put up 51 points against the Clipps in a single game last season.  James Johnson would be better coming off the bench, but if he starts, he does not allow Barnes to do anything.  So the 1,2 & 3 positions belong to the Raps.  The only concern is Griffin.  I would prefer to see Hansborough guard him for a majority as I just do not think Amir has the girth and length to handle him.  DJ is a monster, but JV has been playing outstanding basketball and could quite possibly match him evenly or even outplay him offensively.  The bench is where it ends, Jamal Crawford will most likely see guys like Ross and James guard him, even the 6'6 Vasquez could cause him a few problems.  With Patterson, Vasquez & Sweet Lou, Crawford will not be able to outscore all 3 of them.  To me Farmer & Big Baby do not enter into my capping as they have had 1 good game in their last 10 outings.  Look, Raps could easily get owned on the boards and Blake could scorch em for 40.  But as long as Lowry outscores Paul and the defense of Ross and Johnson limit J.J and Crawford.  This will be a cover for my boys.  We The North.
4 UNITS DAMON "MIGHTY MOUSE" STOUDAMIRE - - - 

A few more straight wagers to come as well as player props. Good luck guys.

I'm on the same side. BOL

Who cares.  

Very few give a hoot about PP record and units.  Many cannot get PP as in depth as others and no one can get the lines that you like to post.  SW is what 95% of players care about so be sure to get that up as it is all that matters to anyone end of day.

Absolutely on the right side of our boys game against the Clipps today.I watched the entire Clipp/Warrior game and they only won because GS was missing their shots and played a little sloppy in second half.Raps will be better than GS was the other night and I could be wrong,obviously but i think Toronto will win this straight up.Good luck and thanks for posting your thoughts.

New brain at the roundtable- come esta

Hey Mak, BOL on all your plays. Would you still take the raps at +4.5?

Cheers

on the raps with you mak

Warriors were correct side over Clippers?  If there was respect to lose, it would be lost on that.  

ADDED WAGERS

B.GRIFFIN OVER 13.5 REB + AST (-115) - - - 1.0 UNITS
J.VALANCIUNAS OVER 8.5 REB (-125) - - - 0.50 UNITS