Mak's TNT Thursday

Sup gents, a nice day on Wednesday going 3-3 (SW = 2-1, PP = 1-2, 2H = 0-0) but picking up 6 units from the books.  Last 4 days have picking up 21 units from the bad guys, hoping to finish the week strong with 4 days remaining.  Tonight on a short slate, very close to playing both games, but upon closer inspection, going to stay away from one, and have shocked myself (and sure to shock those who read my writeups) with a Rockets backing...man I can't believe I just said that.  Am actually flying back home from a successful business trip during the games so I will not be able to play any 2nd half spreads which is unfortunate, though I do have props for tonight.  As always gentlemen, wishing you all the very best of luck tonight.  Peace out - - - MAK
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Mak's 2014/2015 NBA Season Investments

SW = 49-53 (-18.50)
PP = 61-33 (+20.50)
2H = 19-8 (+9.00)
YTD = 124-89 (+11.00)

Juice Approximation Averages

SW = 12.90%
PP = 13.40%
2H = 10.16%
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CLEVELAND CAVALIERS @ OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER - - - I was very close to going for the Thunder at home.  Oklahoma is 8-13 and find themselves 6.5 games back of the Suns for that lone spot available in this year's playoff picture.  With 61 games left in the season, it is not a stretch of a statement to say that every single game is a must win situation, especially at home.  With Kevin Durant continuing his minutes limitation, I believe it will be difficult for the Thunder to continue to put the hurt on good teams.  I will be backing them a lot the remainder of this year, but early on, these games vs top tier teams will have an added amount of pressure, that sometimes causes young teams to play tight and OKC is at their best when they play loose and free.  Lebron James has always been a beast in OKC, with the Heat he was a dominant fixture and tonight will be no different.  I would like to see him guard KD, allowing for more time for Waiters to play rather than Marion, but I suspect Marion will get majority time on him limiting the Cavs ability to score as Shawn is not offensive minded anymore.  I have said it many times, in my opinion, Rus is the best PG in the NBA, his ability to do it all at the 1 position is outstanding.  I really thought he would lock down Kyrie, but Irving seems to do very well when facing Westbrook and actually came into OKC with a mediocre team and won straight up last year as 15 point underdogs.  This game really depends on two things, Adams and Ibaka's ability to limit Kevin and Varajao, and bench play.  OKC in my opinion has the best 10 man rotation in the West, even better than GS.  But youngsters like Perry, Jackson, Morrow & Lamb can be a bit inconsistent at times, especially when playing together.  Perk will struggle against the more agile Thompson on the glass if they matchup tonight.  Dellvadova's defense on Reggie Jackson is one of the keys to the game, and the 3pt shot is another.  There are too many variables to this game for me to pull the trigger on my gut instinct of OKC, I will have 1-2 props riding on the game and will just enjoy watching it with a glass of Blue Label when I get home, I will be rooting for OKC as I have a future on Chicago winning the division.  Enjoy it, it's a big one.

HOUSTON ROCKETS@SACRAMENTO KINGS - - - I treated them bad, oh so bad, who's lovin' you now?  Mak's lovin' you now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2xc8xZ0tV0 .  Look, I standby what I have said from the beginning of the season, the Houston Rockets are pretenders, not contenders.  They need a big mid-season trade to even place them in consideration of being title contenders.  If that does not happen, there is no possible way that Houston gets home court advantage, therefore, little to no chance they make it past the first round of the playoffs.  Now, when Jones, Dwight, Pap & Cannan return from injury, this team has enough depth and focus to consistently win and cover spreads.  There are 3 reasons why I have changed my view on this team, one is Pat Beverely.  I love this guy, the only man in history to make a 15 mil a year player lose his starting job (Jeremy Lin), he made the 2nd team all NBA defense last year and he is such an agitating player who sticks to his defender like glue, he is the best 3pt shooter (by percentage) on the Rockets and is a key to this team's success.  The 2nd reason is Donatas Montiejunas.  Man this kid has really found his game, it took him a while to adjust to the speed of the NBA compared to Euro ball, but now that he has, man, he is just very impressive.  A very nice array of post moves, a good shooter, and tall enough to guard 5's in the NBA, he is one of the only reasons along with Harden that this team is competing and winning without Superman.  The last reason I have changed my view on this team is because of coach Kevin McHale and his coaching staff.  They had a clear sense of what they wanted this team to be, and have executed it to perfection.  They wanted this team to be analytically sound, no mid range, outside 3's and inside shots only.  They wanted this team to be the best 3pt makes team in the NBA and at the same time, stop the opposing 3 ball, #1 in both categories, check.  My only issue with them right now is their depth, it is non existent.  With 3 guys off the bench that have no chance of providing any offense, Terry, Dorsey and Nick Johnson will have to score at least 10-12 points tonight or the Rockets will lose this game.  I actually like Nick Johnson, a young combo guard who has good raw defensive skill.  Dorsey is a bruiser who will have to play Reggie Evans & Landry well in his limited minutes.  My keys to the game are Pat's defense on Collison, Ariza's defense on Rudy, the offensive production of Montieunas and McLemore's size against Harden.  Pat will lock Collison down.  Ariza will limit Rudy to below 50% shooting, Montiejunas dominated against Jason Thompson in Houston a few weeks ago and Harden will dominate Ben McLemore tonight.  My first bet all season on Houston, and unfortunately it will not be my last.

HOUSTON ROCKETS - 1.0 (-105) - - - 2 UNITS
LEBRON JAMES OVER PTS + REB + AST - - - 1 UNIT
LEBRON JAMES OVER PTS - - - 1 UNIT
JAMES HARDEN OVER PTS - - - 0.75 UNITS
DARREN COLLISON UNDER PTS - - - 0.75 UNITS
RUDY happy UNDER PTS - - - 0.75 UNITS
DONATAS MONTIEJUNAS OVER PTS - - - 0.75 UNITS

  

I'll post a final card with price and numbers for the props later on today, good luck fellas.

best of luck tonight mak

Surprised to see you are not on the thunder. I don't think Cleveland will be ready for the thunder tonight. The Cavs are being overvalued because of their recent success against the weak east. I honestly think -2.5 is a joke of a line for OKC at home i think they win this game by 10 +.

BOL on the rockets bet

agree plus 10

Both games will close 

ADDED WAGER

I have taken a deeper look into this game as I have some free time today.  There are a few things that I wanted to see in particular.  Firstly let's delve into some of the matchups I mentioned.  A key one that I suddenly like is Ibaka vs Love.  I think they actually match each other offensively, but one will be productive.  Ibaka is just such a long defender, he will not allow Love to get open jumpshots or hit from outside the arc.  The bench play, which I was not too sure about, now seems like it clearly favors the Thunder.  If Marion does get close to 25-30 mins tonight, it means Waiters will not, and as I said in the writeup above, that will prove to be detrimental to the Cavs as they need the offense to keep up with OKC tonight.  Perry Jones, Morrow, Lamb and hopefully Jackson, can all legitimately put up some serious points tonight.

The only way I can see the Cavs winning is the 3 point shot, and since the return of Durant, the last 4 games, the Thunder have held their opponents to 24 of 89 which is 26.9% from the arc.  That is just stellar perimeter defense.

The Cavs have won 8 straight yes, but all of them were against Eastern opponents.  I do think they have a great team to contend with the East, but are not designed to find success in the West.  They are 1-4 against the West this season and I suspect they end up with a dismal record against the more powerful conference this year, with such a short spread, I have to trust my gut instinct and not only play my lean, but turn this lean into a 4 unit play.

A quick added note on the Houston game, Rockets are 4-1 on 0 days rest and 3-1 after a loss this season.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER - 2.5 (-110)
4 UNITS - - -

FINAL CARD

Wow, lucked out on a better spread prior to the Lebron news, glad I got it at - 2.5 but I actually think there is a good chance Lebron James plays, in fact, if there are any Cavs backers out there, you should jump on the 4.5 for at least half your wager tonight.  I suspect it gets back down to 3 by tip off when news hits that he is in, maybe 3.5.  Because of his knee soreness, I will exclude him from my prop wagers tonight but would not be surprised if he still has a big game.  Good luck guys.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER - 2.5 (-110) - - - 4 UNITS
HOUSTON ROCKETS - 1.0 (-105) - - - 2 UNITS
J.HARDEN OVER 26.5 PTS (-120) - - - 0.75 UNITS
D.COLLISON UNDER 16 PTS (+100) - - - 0.75 UNITS
D.MONTIEJUNAS OVER 14.5 PTS (-115) - - - 0.75 UNITS
R.happy UNDER 22.5 PTS (-115) - - - 0.75 UNITS

Greengrocer - - - Double G, always appreciate your posts on my thread, wish you the best of luck on your plays tonight as well bud.

Jriv - - - Well, don't be surprised anymore, quickly added them to the card once I saw their impeccable perimeter defense the last 4 games and the fact that the Cavs suck vs Western teams.  I also think that the Thunder have a slight chance to run away with the game, but am more inclined to think the Cavs can keep it close.  Let's hope the Thunder strike down some nasty on the Cavs tonight.  Thanks for the post buddy.

Molardoctor - - - I could see a +10 victory, but I really think the Cavs have what it takes to keep it within single digits in a prime time TNT slot.  But a sold out crowd combined with OKC's first real big time game this season, I could see a strong showing.  BOL to us.

Sailorman - - - Yea I am thinking that is the more likely scenario, I don't see blowouts in either game, especially the HOU@SAC game.  I just see Sac and the Cavs being competitive but hoping both will falter eventually.  Best of luck to you.

     

get rollin' Mak,good luck 

DAB, firstly, thanks for the kind words in the last thread, I just did not want to bump a winning thread any further with fear of reprisal from my covers brothers (mostly the covers trolls).  So glad you posted here so I could say thanks, it was much appreciated.

Secondly, to answer your question, a big N with another big O.  No that is not a good idea.  I understand in the NBA it is really tempting to get that middle.  But this is not the situation you want to do it in.  Even if it hits, don't regret it.  If you are interested in because that kind of better, there are much better ways in doing so.  Firstly sign up to a sportsbook that provides good live-betting on all NBA games.  Make your plays, as your capping/gut/instinct or whatever else you need to make a play, ride it out until tip offs.  Then watch a game closely, there are plenty of opportunities everyday to find great middles and essentially double up your money.  It is a great tactic that many cappers use.

Lastly, who the bleeping bleep is that in your avatar!? It is driving me crazy! I live, breath and dream this sport and only this sport and how can I not know who that is, I am going literally bonkers.  I am conceited enough that if you show me a pic of a player with at least one of his team jerseys on, I would know who he is in 5 seconds.  You gotta tell me who it is....the only guess I can possibly make is Pistol Pete but I know it is not him.  I know Pete wore 44 for Boston but that just does not look like the Pistol.  And the fact that you have some obscure NBA player as your avatar, make you more intriguing and all I can say is welcome to the covers forum of the best sport in the world.  Good luck tonight.  Roll with OKC if that is what your gut says, don't go for the middle is my advice to you. 

Tony!  How is you precious girl?  Doing better I hope, them German's are fighters, especially the female ones.  I am certain she will be ok man, hang in there, tell here she has some love sent over from all the way in Kenya to her by my two Goldies, Simba & Miha.

Thanks for noticin' the rollin'.  Right now, all I want to do is get into the black in the SW category of my bets by the end of the calendar year, that is what I am aiming for.  If I can do that, not only will I have a positive record overall, but a fresh start to get back to the Mak Attack days.  Best of luck with your plays today, and give me updates on her condition if you can, a name would be nice too :)  Peace brother.

as always mak, well done

Small Irrelevant Wager Correction

D.Motieunas Over 14.5 Pts is actually (+125) not the (-115) as previously stated.  Not a big deal to anyone, I understand.  But it will move the average of juice for player performances that I average out and post updates to on Monday.
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Ok gents, I am actually just gonna go chill at the Nairobi airport in hopes I can get a faster flight home, it's only a hour flight back so I want to see if I can get home for the games live as I just have a feeling there will be some good value for 2nd H plays.  If not, I guess I will talk to you guys tomorrow.  Call me Naustradamus but Lebron will play tonight, I am 99.9% certain of it and this will be a really good game, enjoy & best of luck fellas. Peace out - - - MAK

Good luck mak.

Ol' G, much respect young buck.  I always appreciate a guy who comes in and actually reads my sh*t,  They have been called novels, I've been called having no life, but as long as guys like you read and interpret them within their own picks and capping guidelines, that is why I will always continue doin' what I do.  Considering the fact that you've only had an account on covers this year, is even more impressive buck.  Wish you were here from time, would have been proper.  Good luck with your plays tonight bro, let's take some cake from the bad guys on TNT Thursday.

Usually CT, when I am the opposite of everyone on Covers, I end up winning.  Think of it as a good thing not a bad thing.  Right now the value is completely on your side.  +4.5 - +5.0 on a team that you were planning to back anyways?! You should be jumping through hoops right now.  Look Lebron will play, I guarantee you that, and the line will drop to 3 - 3.5 so think of it as you getting a point - point and a half of pure value for the cost of juice.  You are a investor, a money manager, even if the Cavs lose, you got your value.  If you read my first writeup on the game, you can see why I was scared to go against the Cavs.  It is my 2nd post on the game that clinched it for me.  Let's see who the better team is tonight, should be an awesome game Big Country, let's enjoy it.

O...HI....O buddy.  Are you a homer? Either way, read what I replied to CT.  You guys should be jumping for joy.  Lebron James is just fine and will be playing this game.  You guys got incredible value.  Almost 2 full points which is about 50% value, incredible.  Kyrie and James could go off and the Thunder could play tight and you guys come out looking like geniuses.  By the way, awesome lookin' K9 you got there sittin' in the chair.  Breed?

say Mak, I have a tease to close and was wondering if i should go with okc+2.5 which is what i feel good with or cleve+11.5, i ask b/c i can see okc running em without lebron on the court, it'd be nice to know if lebron is playiing or not... :l

Mak---I am with you that LBJ will suit up tonight, but not sure I can lay almost 2 possessions now that it is 4.5.  I will roll with you though on the Rockets

Mak your kind words mean the world to me.Thank you very much.Her name is Mika and i will definately keep you updated.She is home now from 9 day stay in hospital with aggressive intravenous and meds to treat virus which also caused kidney failure.She has responded well and is slowly coming along.Not sure what the future holds for her or how long she may survive as the doctors have said she could live long if things go well but she is here now and we are doing everything to help her.She is a true fighter and is becoming my hero.Tell your goldies thank you so much for the love.Her best friend is a goldie that lives up the street from us! Thanks again Mak and GL tonight.

Mak - BOL to you. I took the last few days off to re-calibrate my thinking as i had a few losing days. No bet for me today but I see there is a lot of love for OKC on covers. Totally agree with you about the value on cavs given the "unknown" about Lebron - but like you i also agree that Lebron will play. Looking ahead to tomorrow's big card. Cheers.