The Bucks are 22-1 under this number on the road, in regulation play.
The Nuggets are streaking and have scored over 100 points in their last 6 home games, in regulation. It's very difficult, imo, to sustain that level of offensive play over such a long span, especially since the Nuggets do not have the typical All-Star scorer who can give them 30+ a night. Now they face a very strong interior defense in Milwaukee. The Nuggets take a league leading 44% of their shots within 9 feet of the rim. The Bucks, with Sanders, are the #1 defense in this area in terms of opponents FG% and also #1 in blocks.
The Nuggets are terrible from beyond 10 feet, their shooting rankings are:
10-15 feet: 37.7%(#26)
16-23 feet: 32.2%(#30)
3 pt. : 33.6%(#28)
The Bucks are #6 in opponents' 3 pt.%(33.7%), so I just don't see much shooting success from deep for Denver tonight.
The Nuggets have averaged 98.3 ppg in their 12 games against top 10 defensively efficient teams. The Bucks are #9.
The Bucks remain a jump shooting squad and a big question will be how well Denver can defend them from midrange and outside, which is not Denver's strong suit. I really like Iguodala to body up and irritate Monta on D though.
The Bucks are still bottom 10 in eFG% and PPS. Denver has allowed only approximately 96.0 ppg in games to bottom 10 teams in these categories.
Though there will more than likely be a fast pace tonight, I think there is just enough defensive presence, on both sides, to help keep this game under. Both teams also rebound well, hopefully leading to fewer fast breaks and not an excessive number of 2nd chance points.
Not a game to play for those with a faint heart.
I am on the under 214.5.
Good luck with whatever you decide.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Currently at 214.5
The Bucks are 22-1 under this number on the road, in regulation play.
The Nuggets are streaking and have scored over 100 points in their last 6 home games, in regulation. It's very difficult, imo, to sustain that level of offensive play over such a long span, especially since the Nuggets do not have the typical All-Star scorer who can give them 30+ a night. Now they face a very strong interior defense in Milwaukee. The Nuggets take a league leading 44% of their shots within 9 feet of the rim. The Bucks, with Sanders, are the #1 defense in this area in terms of opponents FG% and also #1 in blocks.
The Nuggets are terrible from beyond 10 feet, their shooting rankings are:
10-15 feet: 37.7%(#26)
16-23 feet: 32.2%(#30)
3 pt. : 33.6%(#28)
The Bucks are #6 in opponents' 3 pt.%(33.7%), so I just don't see much shooting success from deep for Denver tonight.
The Nuggets have averaged 98.3 ppg in their 12 games against top 10 defensively efficient teams. The Bucks are #9.
The Bucks remain a jump shooting squad and a big question will be how well Denver can defend them from midrange and outside, which is not Denver's strong suit. I really like Iguodala to body up and irritate Monta on D though.
The Bucks are still bottom 10 in eFG% and PPS. Denver has allowed only approximately 96.0 ppg in games to bottom 10 teams in these categories.
Though there will more than likely be a fast pace tonight, I think there is just enough defensive presence, on both sides, to help keep this game under. Both teams also rebound well, hopefully leading to fewer fast breaks and not an excessive number of 2nd chance points.
The Bucks are 22-1 under this number on the road, in regulation play.
The Nuggets are streaking and have scored over 100 points in their last 6 home games, in regulation. It's very difficult, imo, to sustain that level of offensive play over such a long span, especially since the Nuggets do not have the typical All-Star scorer who can give them 30+ a night. Now they face a very strong interior defense in Milwaukee. The Nuggets take a league leading 44% of their shots within 9 feet of the rim. The Bucks, with Sanders, are the #1 defense in this area in terms of opponents FG% and also #1 in blocks.
The Nuggets are terrible from beyond 10 feet, their shooting rankings are:
10-15 feet: 37.7%(#26)
16-23 feet: 32.2%(#30)
3 pt. : 33.6%(#28)
The Bucks are #6 in opponents' 3 pt.%(33.7%), so I just don't see much shooting success from deep for Denver tonight.
The Nuggets have averaged 98.3 ppg in their 12 games against top 10 defensively efficient teams. The Bucks are #9.
The Bucks remain a jump shooting squad and a big question will be how well Denver can defend them from midrange and outside, which is not Denver's strong suit. I really like Iguodala to body up and irritate Monta on D though.
The Bucks are still bottom 10 in eFG% and PPS. Denver has allowed only approximately 96.0 ppg in games to bottom 10 teams in these categories.
Though there will more than likely be a fast pace tonight, I think there is just enough defensive presence, on both sides, to help keep this game under. Both teams also rebound well, hopefully leading to fewer fast breaks and not an excessive number of 2nd chance points.
Not a game to play for those with a faint heart.
I am on the under 214.5.
Good luck with whatever you decide.
I appreciate the research time and the info volunteered for the benefit of all
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Quote Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:
Currently at 214.5
The Bucks are 22-1 under this number on the road, in regulation play.
The Nuggets are streaking and have scored over 100 points in their last 6 home games, in regulation. It's very difficult, imo, to sustain that level of offensive play over such a long span, especially since the Nuggets do not have the typical All-Star scorer who can give them 30+ a night. Now they face a very strong interior defense in Milwaukee. The Nuggets take a league leading 44% of their shots within 9 feet of the rim. The Bucks, with Sanders, are the #1 defense in this area in terms of opponents FG% and also #1 in blocks.
The Nuggets are terrible from beyond 10 feet, their shooting rankings are:
10-15 feet: 37.7%(#26)
16-23 feet: 32.2%(#30)
3 pt. : 33.6%(#28)
The Bucks are #6 in opponents' 3 pt.%(33.7%), so I just don't see much shooting success from deep for Denver tonight.
The Nuggets have averaged 98.3 ppg in their 12 games against top 10 defensively efficient teams. The Bucks are #9.
The Bucks remain a jump shooting squad and a big question will be how well Denver can defend them from midrange and outside, which is not Denver's strong suit. I really like Iguodala to body up and irritate Monta on D though.
The Bucks are still bottom 10 in eFG% and PPS. Denver has allowed only approximately 96.0 ppg in games to bottom 10 teams in these categories.
Though there will more than likely be a fast pace tonight, I think there is just enough defensive presence, on both sides, to help keep this game under. Both teams also rebound well, hopefully leading to fewer fast breaks and not an excessive number of 2nd chance points.
Not a game to play for those with a faint heart.
I am on the under 214.5.
Good luck with whatever you decide.
I appreciate the research time and the info volunteered for the benefit of all
I love your picks. I know you are an under bettor. But, please check out the refs on this one.....
God Bless....
Only one ref is really outside the norm -- I agree that ref analysis is helpful, but I don't know how applicable it is in this one. The crew is a combined 8-5 OVER a total of 205+.
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Quote Originally Posted by Narco:
I love your picks. I know you are an under bettor. But, please check out the refs on this one.....
God Bless....
Only one ref is really outside the norm -- I agree that ref analysis is helpful, but I don't know how applicable it is in this one. The crew is a combined 8-5 OVER a total of 205+.
Only one ref is really outside the norm -- I agree that ref analysis is helpful, but I don't know how applicable it is in this one. The crew is a combined 8-5 OVER a total of 205+.
Interesting angle. Very hard to handicap the totals when the games are in Denver. IMO the totals line is way too high here from a first sight. But more you look and research the surrounding attributes - more skeptical you become about the Under.
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Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
Only one ref is really outside the norm -- I agree that ref analysis is helpful, but I don't know how applicable it is in this one. The crew is a combined 8-5 OVER a total of 205+.
Interesting angle. Very hard to handicap the totals when the games are in Denver. IMO the totals line is way too high here from a first sight. But more you look and research the surrounding attributes - more skeptical you become about the Under.
Interesting angle. Very hard to handicap the totals when the games are in Denver. IMO the totals line is way too high here from a first sight. But more you look and research the surrounding attributes - more skeptical you become about the Under.
What exact research points and attributes are you specifically referring to? It would be helpful to elaborate.
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Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:
Interesting angle. Very hard to handicap the totals when the games are in Denver. IMO the totals line is way too high here from a first sight. But more you look and research the surrounding attributes - more skeptical you become about the Under.
What exact research points and attributes are you specifically referring to? It would be helpful to elaborate.
What exact research points and attributes are you specifically referring to? It would be helpful to elaborate.
The refs as kaponofor pointed out but mostly the fact that judging by the recent performances of the teams - the line a bit higher than it should. I ask my self why? Not that I have the answer besides the meaningless fact that those teams have played only 3 unders combined in 20(!) games. So, I get confused here - is this another over here because of that number - or it is the time for under because of so many overs played. I also support leaning wise the under - but not sure as of yet
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Quote Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:
What exact research points and attributes are you specifically referring to? It would be helpful to elaborate.
The refs as kaponofor pointed out but mostly the fact that judging by the recent performances of the teams - the line a bit higher than it should. I ask my self why? Not that I have the answer besides the meaningless fact that those teams have played only 3 unders combined in 20(!) games. So, I get confused here - is this another over here because of that number - or it is the time for under because of so many overs played. I also support leaning wise the under - but not sure as of yet
I would tread lightly..... I feel the line should be 205 at best, IMO when the lines seem so off like that it's for a reason. GL with your bets
So, in your opinion, the Bucks total should only be 0.5 points higher than the last game Denver played, which was against New Orleans? The Pelicans are 29th in pace and the Bucks are 4th. Not really seeing your reasoning here.
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Quote Originally Posted by tuttle22:
I would tread lightly..... I feel the line should be 205 at best, IMO when the lines seem so off like that it's for a reason. GL with your bets
So, in your opinion, the Bucks total should only be 0.5 points higher than the last game Denver played, which was against New Orleans? The Pelicans are 29th in pace and the Bucks are 4th. Not really seeing your reasoning here.
mw...The Bucks are a hard team for me to play when it comes to totals. They always seem to score when I don't want them too. But, as always your on the right side of this play.
GL...
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mw...The Bucks are a hard team for me to play when it comes to totals. They always seem to score when I don't want them too. But, as always your on the right side of this play.
mellow, love reading your posts. I always manage to pick up a few nuggets from reading them. just a couple of things jump out at me and would love to hear your thoughts:
Den/Mil are # 2/3 in pace, respectively are 25/28 in Defensive Rebound Rate and are 2/11 in Offensive Rebound Rate
This tells me that there might be little wasted time on missed shots due to a sizable amount of offensive boards, creating 2nd chance points, which is scary for the under backers
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mellow, love reading your posts. I always manage to pick up a few nuggets from reading them. just a couple of things jump out at me and would love to hear your thoughts:
Den/Mil are # 2/3 in pace, respectively are 25/28 in Defensive Rebound Rate and are 2/11 in Offensive Rebound Rate
This tells me that there might be little wasted time on missed shots due to a sizable amount of offensive boards, creating 2nd chance points, which is scary for the under backers
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