Posted:
#26
Quote Originally Posted by jsaptny:
mellow, love reading your posts. I always manage to pick up a few nuggets from reading them. just a couple of things jump out at me and would love to hear your thoughts:
Den/Mil are # 2/3 in pace, respectively
are 25/28 in Defensive Rebound Rate
and are 2/11 in Offensive Rebound Rate
This tells me that there might be little wasted time on missed shots due to a sizable amount of offensive boards, creating 2nd chance points, which is scary for the under backers
mellow, love reading your posts. I always manage to pick up a few nuggets from reading them. just a couple of things jump out at me and would love to hear your thoughts:
Den/Mil are # 2/3 in pace, respectively
are 25/28 in Defensive Rebound Rate
and are 2/11 in Offensive Rebound Rate
This tells me that there might be little wasted time on missed shots due to a sizable amount of offensive boards, creating 2nd chance points, which is scary for the under backers
Great points jsaptny.
The pace is incorporated into the total pretty well, imo. I am definitely worried about volume shooting, but hoping for some spells of poor shooting from both squads, which is reasonable, in my estimation, looking at their season stats.
As far as less defensive rebounding and more offensive boards, yes there will, no doubt, be opportunities for 2nd chance points. However, I would add that these are prolific shot blocking teams. McGee and Sanders are two of the longest players in the league and can alter virtually any shot on the interior. Dalembert will get likely get more minutes and he is no slouch in terms of altering shots either. Also, Udoh and Mbah a Moute are capable defenders.
For Denver, Koufos and Faried average about 2.5 blocks per game combined.
One more thing that is important, both teams are bottom 10 in FT %. Denver is actually dead last at 68.7%.
It will be close, imo, but I think there is value in the under. We shall see.
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