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NBA - Relative Point Spread Rankings (1/25)

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Posts: 102

ShootDaClubUp

Banned

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 6495

Posted: Jan. 25, 2012 - 7:02 PM ET #51

Put together this parlay using your model for tonight because i was bored

Jan 25 07:12 PM
Jan 25 07:35 PM
Jan 25 08:05 PM
Jan 25 08:35 PM
Jan 25 10:35 PM

NBA
NBA
NBA
NBA
NBA
NBA

[701] CHARLOTTE +8-130 (B+1)
[704] CLEVELAND +6-150 (B+2)
[708] DETROIT +10-140 (B+1½)
[711] NEW ORLEANS +12-120 (B+½)
[715] ATLANTA +6-140 (B+1½)
[723] PORTLAND +5-140 (B+1½)

6 / 130

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jaredsmith14

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 80

Posted: Jan. 25, 2012 - 7:07 PM ET #52

I use a system like this but yours is much better

great stuff thanks

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si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Jan. 25, 2012 - 7:13 PM ET #53

Quote Originally Posted by ShootDaClubUp:

Put together this parlay using your model for tonight because i was bored

Jan 25 07:12 PM
Jan 25 07:35 PM
Jan 25 08:05 PM
Jan 25 08:35 PM
Jan 25 10:35 PM

NBA
NBA
NBA
NBA
NBA
NBA

[701] CHARLOTTE +8-130 (B+1)
[704] CLEVELAND +6-150 (B+2)
[708] DETROIT +10-140 (B+1½)
[711] NEW ORLEANS +12-120 (B+½)
[715] ATLANTA +6-140 (B+1½)
[723] PORTLAND +5-140 (B+1½)

6 / 130

For 6 bucks why not!? Good luck!

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eyemtlaw

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 1346

Posted: Jan. 25, 2012 - 7:18 PM ET #54

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

You bring up a good point but Atlanta is playing at another level this year. And the Spurs are really hurting without Manu dictating the offense. (I don't think you can look at past results between these two teams for reference) The Spurs force opponents to take the majority of their shots between 3 and 15 feet. These mid range jump shots are efficient enough for my liking. SAS may win the game, but I don't think the cover.

I appreciate all the hard work and maybe I'm being a little biased since I seem to be on the wrong side of Atlanta every time I think they are the right play. This goes back to last year. They look so good then really bad.

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bmcquilkin

Veteran

Joined: May, 2010

Posts: 1439

Posted: Jan. 25, 2012 - 7:19 PM ET #55

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jroc1247

Captain

Joined: Aug, 2008

Posts: 8138

Posted: Jan. 25, 2012 - 7:26 PM ET #56

Great info bro! Keep up the good work!

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HoldenRg

Banned

Joined: May, 2006

Posts: 9777

Posted: Jan. 25, 2012 - 7:38 PM ET #57

GREAT STUFF! !! I appreciate you sharing this info brother.

PEACE!

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VietBlonde

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 681

Posted: Jan. 26, 2012 - 4:20 AM ET #58

Where amazing happens THANKS si1ly!!!

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si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Jan. 26, 2012 - 10:56 AM ET #59

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si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Jan. 26, 2012 - 11:52 AM ET #60

Only two games on the card tonight. After running the numbers, these are the true lines:

Orlando Magic -8

Los Angeles Clippers -4.5

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Davey

Rookie

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 632

Posted: Jan. 26, 2012 - 12:09 PM ET #61

Made some revisions to my model which I am happy with

My raw numbers are lac -3.5 and orl -6.5 unadjusted for intangibles

How do you handle injuries, improved performance in short term, effects of a big trade like Denver last year?

Thanks

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si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Jan. 26, 2012 - 3:38 PM ET #62

Quote Originally Posted by Davey:

Made some revisions to my model which I am happy with

My raw numbers are lac -3.5 and orl -6.5 unadjusted for intangibles

How do you handle injuries, improved performance in short term, effects of a big trade like Denver last year?

Thanks

How do I handle injuries?

Injuries are hard to quantify. One way you can do it is by looking at a teams PPG or a more advanced stat like offensive efficiency when that player is in the lineup and when he's out of the line up. This can give you an idea of how many fewer points a team typically scores when he's absent. Also PER (player efficiency rating) can tell you exactly how valuable that player is. But short answer is, I don't really try and quantify it because it's too inexact a science and there's almost never enough data to rely on. I allow injuries to weigh in when I look at player match-ups and shot locations. It's one of the intangible angles that sway me to one side or another, but I don't attempt to adjust the spread because of it.

How do I handle improved performance in the short term?

Hopefully improved performance will start to show up statistically and I'll see that team move up in the rankings with a higher relative point spread ranking. I try and ignore "hot" and "cold" spells of just a few games because these streaks always tend to normalize in the long run. If a team is particularly hot coming into a given game I may adjust the spread 1 point in their favor, but no more than that. I also always start a new data set after the all star game. This will give me a point spread ranking for the latter half of the season that I can compare to the season average and earlier model results. This can tell me exactly how much a team is improving during the season. Typically I rely on the season long averages, but if a team made significant improvements I may weigh the post-all-star-break rankings more heavily. This becomes particularly helpful come playoff time. You can really see which team is playing the best basketball at the end of the season - which team made the most improvements - etc...

How do I handle a big trade?

If a team makes a major trade like the Nuggets and Knicks last year I try and wait until a dozen or so games have been played before I start to wager on that team again. There are 30 NBA franchises - blacklisting two of them for a month until I can better understand the true affect of the trade is usually a good idea. Plenty of other teams to find value on.

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Quote Originally Posted by Davey:

Made some revisions to my model which I am happy with

My raw numbers are lac -3.5 and orl -6.5 unadjusted for intangibles

How do you handle injuries, improved performance in short term, effects of a big trade like Denver last year?

Thanks

How do I handle injuries?

Injuries are hard to quantify. One way you can do it is by looking at a teams PPG or a more advanced stat like offensive efficiency when that player is in the lineup and when he's out of the line up. This can give you an idea of how many fewer points a team typically scores when he's absent. Also PER (player efficiency rating) can tell you exactly how valuable that player is. But short answer is, I don't really try and quantify it because it's too inexact a science and there's almost never enough data to rely on. I allow injuries to weigh in when I look at player match-ups and shot locations. It's one of the intangible angles that sway me to one side or another, but I don't attempt to adjust the spread because of it.

How do I handle improved performance in the short term?

Hopefully improved performance will start to show up statistically and I'll see that team move up in the rankings with a higher relative point spread ranking. I try and ignore "hot" and "cold" spells of just a few games because these streaks always tend to normalize in the long run. If a team is particularly hot coming into a given game I may adjust the spread 1 point in their favor, but no more than that. I also always start a new data set after the all star game. This will give me a point spread ranking for the latter half of the season that I can compare to the season average and earlier model results. This can tell me exactly how much a team is improving during the season. Typically I rely on the season long averages, but if a team made significant improvements I may weigh the post-all-star-break rankings more heavily. This becomes particularly helpful come playoff time. You can really see which team is playing the best basketball at the end of the season - which team made the most improvements - etc...

How do I handle a big trade?

If a team makes a major trade like the Nuggets and Knicks last year I try and wait until a dozen or so games have been played before I start to wager on that team again. There are 30 NBA franchises - blacklisting two of them for a month until I can better understand the true affect of the trade is usually a good idea. Plenty of other teams to find value on.

dsg63

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 127

Posted: Jan. 26, 2012 - 4:07 PM ET #63

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Only two games on the card tonight. After running the numbers, these are the true lines:

Orlando Magic -8

Los Angeles Clippers -4.5

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drewg3

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2006

Posts: 1

Posted: Jan. 26, 2012 - 4:59 PM ET #64

This is good work, I was actually searching for something else and I stumbled across this thread, I have profited this year in the NBA using a similar method, but instead of using a raw power ranking number I use an excel formula I created to give me a matchup advantage number. It basically matches each of the offense's four factors against the defense's four factors, divides that by the league average, and spits out a number, 100 being average on where a team will have advantages against the opponent. I have found that ORR and FTR have given me significant advantages against the number this season. I have found that the longer the season has went on the closer my number is getting to the actual spreads.
I have also found that eFG is the absolute hardest factor to predict, and many find this to be the most significant, so I have been playing with a model that shows if a team will have an advantage with Points in the Paint, 2-point Jumpshots, or 3-Pointers, but haven't found a strong enough correlation to be completely comfortable with it yet. I actually don't bet on sports anymore, I recently started a family and it isnt worth the risk and trouble, but I have been crunching statistics for years hoping to one day be a successful handicapper.

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jsaptny

Prospect

Joined: Jul, 2011

Posts: 223

Posted: Jan. 26, 2012 - 6:00 PM ET #65

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Only two games on the card tonight. After running the numbers, these are the true lines:

Orlando Magic -8

Los Angeles Clippers -4.5

So according to your model, Magic +10 and Clippers -3.5 should be looked at as potential plays? Do you use trends to help you decide?

0

timdogs17

MVP

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 15453

Posted: Jan. 26, 2012 - 6:11 PM ET #66

Any plays tonight?

0

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Jan. 26, 2012 - 6:12 PM ET #67

Quote Originally Posted by jsaptny:

So according to your model, Magic +10 and Clippers -3.5 should be looked at as potential plays? Do you use trends to help you decide?

I don't use trends at all. What happened in 2001 has no baring whatsoever on what will happen today. The two most important factors I look at in addition to this model are player match-ups and offensive/defensive shot locations. This tells me where teams prefer to score and who is typically doing the scoring. I can then compare that to how well teams defend those areas and who is defending them.

As for tonight's card: CELTICS +10 has 2 points of value, but because of all of their injuries and revenge I can understand why Vegas moved the spread all the way up to +10. CLIPPERS -3.5 is only 1 point lower than the model's line. Both of these games have an insignificant amount of value. Think of it this way, it's only one made basket. I look for value of at least 3.5 points. Both of these games are passes for me. Tonight the model hasn't told us anything that Vegas already has - both lines are statistically accurate.

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jsaptny

Prospect

Joined: Jul, 2011

Posts: 223

Posted: Jan. 26, 2012 - 6:33 PM ET #68

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

I don't use trends at all. What happened in 2001 has no baring whatsoever on what will happen today. The two most important factors I look at in addition to this model are player match-ups and offensive/defensive shot locations. This tells me where teams prefer to score and who is typically doing the scoring. I can then compare that to how well teams defend those areas and who is defending them.

As for tonight's card: CELTICS +10 has 2 points of value, but because of all of their injuries and revenge I can understand why Vegas moved the spread all the way up to +10. CLIPPERS -3.5 is only 1 point lower than the model's line. Both of these games have an insignificant amount of value. Think of it this way, it's only one made basket. I look for value of at least 3.5 points. Both of these games are passes for me. Tonight the model hasn't told us anything that Vegas already has - both lines are statistically accurate.

Appreciate the insight Si1ly

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timdogs17

MVP

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 15453

Posted: Jan. 26, 2012 - 6:34 PM ET #69

(2) games on TNT Thursday night, I think one dog wins SU.

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si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Jan. 26, 2012 - 6:41 PM ET #70

Quote Originally Posted by timdogs17:

(2) games on TNT Thursday night, I think one dog wins SU.

Nothing is impossible in the NBA. It's where amazing happens.

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Petro27

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 187

Posted: Jan. 26, 2012 - 6:58 PM ET #71

Good stuff

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Davey

Rookie

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 632

Posted: Jan. 26, 2012 - 8:48 PM ET #72

Thanks I appreciate your response that is helpful

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mylife23

Rookie

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 940

Posted: Jan. 27, 2012 - 4:46 AM ET #73

awesome stuff si1ly...love looking at models shared by members...im not mathematically inclined at all so I love looking at these angles when im lucky enough to come across them

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si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Jan. 27, 2012 - 10:15 AM ET #74

Huge card today (1/27):

These are the true lines that my model spits out (adjusted for home court and intangibles)

Philadelphia -15

Atlanta -6

Boston -3.5

Cleveland -8

Miami -8.5

Chicago -12

Orlando -2

Houston -10

Minnesota -3

Dallas -3

Denver -11

Portland -6

Oklahoma City -2.5

Some of the actual lines haven't been released yet, but it looks like Cleveland, Minnesota and Phoenix have the most value so far.

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The__Man

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 386

Posted: Jan. 27, 2012 - 11:42 AM ET #75

Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Huge card today (1/27):

These are the true lines that my model spits out (adjusted for home court and intangibles)

Philadelphia -15

Atlanta -6

Boston -3.5

Cleveland -8

Miami -8.5

Chicago -12

Orlando -2

Houston -10

Minnesota -3

Dallas -3

Denver -11

Portland -6

Oklahoma City -2.5

Some of the actual lines haven't been released yet, but it looks like Cleveland, Minnesota and Phoenix have the most value so far.

And Boston! And maybe Knicks. :)

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NBA - Relative Point Spread Rankings (1/25)

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