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NBA - Relative Point Spread Rankings (1/25)

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by The__Man:



And Boston! And maybe Knicks. :)


I like the C's to keep rolling (actually took them ATS last night, was pissed the 1H and dumbfounded the 2H).  Also like the Knicks to compete against the heat (rekindle that rivalry).  I know your model doesn't give much value to OKC, but I don't see how the warriors are going to match up against them tonight.  BOL
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by jsaptny:



I like the C's to keep rolling (actually took them ATS last night, was pissed the 1H and dumbfounded the 2H).  Also like the Knicks to compete against the heat (rekindle that rivalry).  I know your model doesn't give much value to OKC, but I don't see how the warriors are going to match up against them tonight.  BOL


Warriors have won 3 of last 4 against OKC in Oakland but shhhhhhhh. :)
 
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Posted: #78
The thing I dislike about the clev nj game is that it looks similar to Hou/mil and phi/nj games the other day - those lines were short according to my analysis. This one appears to be right where I expected it but it feels short
 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by The__Man:



Warriors have won 3 of last 4 against OKC in Oakland but shhhhhhhh. :)


I saw that too, but that was on 02/13/11, 04/11/10, 01/31/10, 02/21/09... last time I checked it's 2012 and the Warriors have a new coach and Thunder are rolling this year.  Also doesn't hurt that the Thunder have Perkins now
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by Davey:

The thing I dislike about the clev nj game is that it looks similar to Hou/mil and phi/nj games the other day - those lines were short according to my analysis. This one appears to be right where I expected it but it feels short

It feels a little short to me too... but I'm all over it nonetheless.  It's the only play I have locked in so far:  Cleveland -3.5 (-110)
 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by jsaptny:



I like the C's to keep rolling (actually took them ATS last night, was pissed the 1H and dumbfounded the 2H).  Also like the Knicks to compete against the heat (rekindle that rivalry).  I know your model doesn't give much value to OKC, but I don't see how the warriors are going to match up against them tonight.  BOL

The Celtics have a ton of value tonight - most out of any game against my model.  However, the Celtics are in an awkward traveling spot and exerted a lot of energy in the second half last night.  They also don't match-up with Indiana well.  Indiana has size in the paint and the C's just don't have the bodies to muscle rebounds.  That being said, Pacers are in a bit of a let down spot after having just beat the Bulls in Chicago.  Despite the obvious line value, the game looks like a toss-up.  I'd rather side with the home team catching points in this case, but it's a pass for now.

OKC is a very strong team.  They have the capability to blow teams out when they win.  But I'm not willing to pay a premium to back them on the road in front of a hostile crowd.
 
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Posted: #82
I was wondering how you capped The Celtic Heat game And do you ever cap Totals  You have done some good work  .
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by The__Man:



And Boston! And maybe Knicks. :)

Not sure about the Knicks.  Melo is a game time decision.  Miami struggles against teams with a great point guard.  That is definitely not the Knick's strong suit.  I lean Miami, but I'm not willing to back them with double digits tonight.  They're prime for a ML parlay though...
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by 54Capper:

I was wondering how you capped The Celtic Heat game And do you ever cap Totals  You have done some good work  .

I cap totals.  You'll see me post plays on totals from time to time.  I don't use a model like this though to predict final scores - I use a more inexact statistical analysis by looking at pace and defensive efficiency etc...
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


The Celtics have a ton of value tonight - most out of any game against my model.  However, the Celtics are in an awkward traveling spot and exerted a lot of energy in the second half last night.  They also don't match-up with Indiana well.  Indiana has size in the paint and the C's just don't have the bodies to muscle rebounds.  That being said, Pacers are in a bit of a let down spot after having just beat the Bulls in Chicago.  Despite the obvious line value, the game looks like a toss-up.  I'd rather side with the home team catching points in this case, but it's a pass for now.

OKC is a very strong team.  They have the capability to blow teams out when they win.  But I'm not willing to pay a premium to back them on the road in front of a hostile crowd.


Did you hear that D. Rose and company were pretty pissed that the Pacers were celebrating so much after 1 win? Marking March 5th on my calendar now.  I can't resist but roll with the C's, they more than made up for that debacle against PHO last week!
 
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Posted: #86
Hey mate.. I already posted this in your BOS@ORL thread from yesterday... didn´t know if you already read it.
Right on point ... great as usual buddy
You have always nice analysis on the games, I hope you stays with us for a long time here.
And your name is exactly the opposite of what I see from you.
You're all but not determined silly.
Sorry about the bad gramma .. didn´t bought the rosetta stone dvd yet

 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by jsaptny:



Did you hear that D. Rose and company were pretty pissed that the Pacers were celebrating so much after 1 win? Marking March 5th on my calendar now.  I can't resist but roll with the C's, they more than made up for that debacle against PHO last week!

I'm sure the oddsmakers have circled that game too.  You'll have to pay a premium to back the Bulls but I think you're right.. they're a phenomenal revenge team.

Good luck with the C's play.
 
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Posted: #88
 
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Posted: #89
awesome work si1ly. just wondering: where do you get the raw statistics from? like offensive/defensive scoring zones, EFG%, pace, etc.
 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by blocksnbooze:

awesome work si1ly. just wondering: where do you get the raw statistics from? like offensive/defensive scoring zones, EFG%, pace, etc.

hoopdata
 
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Posted: #91
Nice work brother. check out a website called teamrankings. you may find it useful..lots of info you can gather there.
 
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Posted: #92
Smaller card today (1/28)

Charlotte -3.5
Philadelphia -14.5
Houston -5.5
Los Angeles -2
Phoenix -0.5
Utah -9

Charlotte +5.5 value
Philadelphia +1.5 value
New York +2 value
Milwaukee +3 value
Phoenix +4.5 value
Utah No value
 
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Posted: #93
What's the minimum value to make a play in your opinion?
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by The__Man:

What's the minimum value to make a play in your opinion?

I take a hard look at any game withe 3.5 points of value or more.  I ask myself, why is there that much value?  You have to decide if Vegas is giving that value to encourage money to fall on that side or whether it's actual value created by public perception or some other intangible variable.
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


I take a hard look at any game withe 3.5 points of value or more.  I ask myself, why is there that much value?  You have to decide if Vegas is giving that value to encourage money to fall on that side or whether it's actual value created by public perception or some other intangible variable.


I have a local that put Utah -5 and Milwaukee at +6. They usually add a point since we are in LA. I had to bite on both of these. What do you think? i explained a little in my post.
 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by eyemtlaw:



I have a local that put Utah -5 and Milwaukee at +6. They usually add a point since we are in LA. I had to bite on both of these. What do you think? i explained a little in my post.

Utah is in a tough scheduling spot playing a 3 in 4 nights going home away home but they match-up pretty will with the Kings in the interior.  I think this may hurt Utah's defensive intensity so I lean over on the game.  But at -5, I would hammer it, that line is way off.
 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


Utah is in a tough scheduling spot playing a 3 in 4 nights going home away home but they match-up pretty will with the Kings in the interior.  I think this may hurt Utah's defensive intensity so I lean over on the game.  But at -5, I would hammer it, that line is way off.


I appreciate your quick response and insight!
 
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Posted: #98
Hi si1ly

Do you update the relative point spread that you calculated at first?
 
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Posted: #99
If this guy ever stops posting, I'm fucked.
 
 
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Posted: #100
@van

I update the model as often as I can, but now that were a month into the season it takes at least a few games to affect the output. These numbers are computed using season long averages so at this point one game is only about 5% of the average. I'll repost these rankings once a week in a different thread. This might be helpful because you can track which teams are improving and which teams are getting worse as the season progresses.
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