NBA 22-23 Picks

Fuckin ash trae....every time I bet him...19 pts at half....6 the entire 2nd half

And still only lost the bet on 2 missed free throws....fuck me 

overall 10-10 -0.46

10-10 -0.46 0.5 unit plays

0-0 +0  1 unit plays

had 2 leans last night...durant over 27.5 and fox over 25.5....woulda split and lost the juice

looks like im going back to ash trae

1 locked in

trae over 9.5 assists @1.90  0.5 to win 0.45

over this 3 of last 5....all vs good/decent defensive teams (76ers, bucks, celts, raps, cavs)

game total is set very high for this game, should be some easy baskets for both teams

hawks a good home team, kings on a b2b

trae averages 10.3 assists at home vs 8.8 on the road so far this season

trae averages 9.7 assists in his career vs kings

like trae to play 34+ mins and to get a double double tonight unless hawks get a 20+ point lead before the 3rd quarter

like him in the 9-12 range

GL all

1 locked in

sga over 29.5 points @1.95  0.5 to win 0.475

over this in 4 of last 5, and 2 of 2 vs denver this year , 37@home and 28@den

nuggets on b2b and on road, typically a better home team

nuggets allow 53.3 points in paint per game (6th worst in league), he should be able to attack rim

like him to put up 20+ shots and play 35+ mins

like him to get 10-13 buckets with 6+ made free throws

like him in the 28-34 range

GL all

more leans

zion over 24.5 points @2.10

don.mitchell over 25.5 points @1.70

fox over 25.5 points @1.85

ingram over 22.5 points @1.85

giannis over 11.5 boards @1.70

debating making trae over 9.5 assists a full unit play

1 locked in

zion over 24.5 points @2.10  0.5 to win 0.55

over this in 4 of 6 before injuring foot, last game was blowout and he only played 22 mins

expecting him to dominate in the paint

spurs allow 53.4 points per game in the paint (5th worst in league)

like him to put up 15+ shots and play 30+ mins

like him in the 9-11 bucket range with 4+ free throws made

like him in the 23-28 range

GL all

1 more locked in

fox over 25.5 points @1.85  0.5 to win 0.425

over this in 3 straight

over this in last 3 vs hawks with 32, 37 and 30

should want to one-up trae and dejounte

only thing i dont like is he on a b2b...but hes a streaky player so ill gamble he plays 33+ mins

like him to put up 19+ shots and play 33+ mins

like him to finish with 9-11 buckets with 1-3 3s mixed in and 4+ made free throws

like him in the 24-29 range

GL all

4 plays biggest card of the season so far for me usually doesnt go well

on pace for 0-2 start  looks like fox was the play last night

1 locked in

Zion over 25.5 points @1.70  0.5 to win 0.35

Battle of #1 #2 draft picks, zion has played well in the first 4. Seems he is motivated for these games.

Like that pels on the road ...zion shouldn't be in a turkey coma....

Like that cj out. He put up 23 shots vs grizz few weeks ago

Only worry is potential missed free throws...and I hate the odds but love the play...wanted 1.80 

Like zion to put up 19+ shots.and play 30+ mins unless its a blowout

Like him to sink 10-12 buckets maybe a 3 mixed in there and 4+ made free throws

Like him in the 24-29 range

GL all

Bet the one big blowout of the night....slow start to the season....seem to be betting the losers and passing the winners...passed Mitchell for zion last night...

overall 12-13 -0.935 units

12-13 -0.935 0.5 unit plays

0-0 +0  1 unit plays

Don't like much tonight...if sga wasn't b2b I'd probably look at his point prop

Gonna look up doncic career numbers vs raps...but he gets more calls at home

Board Sunday looks decent. Like 1 or 2 there for sure

1 locked in

curry over 29.5 points @1.85  0.5 to win 0.425

over this in 6 of last 10

over this in last 4 played @minn (34, 37, 36, 37)

3+ 3 pointers made in 10 straight games, maybe more only looked at last 10

minne allowing a lot of points to guards so far this season....makes sense with gobert and towns in the paint

refs in this game all in top half of league for fouls called per game and total points per game

only worry is if he goes all point guard and doesnt shoot and gets 12+ assists....

like him to put up 19+ shots and play 34+ mins unless its a blowout....expecting a tight game though between 2 potential contenders

like him to to sink 9-12 baskets with 4+ 3s mixed in and 4+ made free throws

like him in the 28-34 range

GL all

1 locked in

curry over 29.5 points @1.85  0.5 to win 0.425

over this in 6 of last 10

over this in last 4 played @minn (34, 37, 36, 37)

3+ 3 pointers made in every game this season

minne allowing a lot of points to guards so far this season....makes sense with gobert and towns in the paint

refs in this game all in top half of league for fouls called per game and total points per game

only worry is if he goes all point guard and doesnt shoot and gets 12+ assists....

like him to put up 19+ shots and play 34+ mins unless its a blowout....expecting a tight game though between 2 potential contenders

like him to to sink 9-12 baskets with 4+ 3s mixed in and 4+ made free throws

like him in the 28-34 range

GL all

Leans

Cha/bos over 224.5

Sga over 30.5 points

1 locked in

Sga over 30.5 points @1.85 0.5 to win 0.425

Over this in 2 of last 4. Both unders had 30 on the button

Pels d nothing special, he should get lots of looks.  Could get JV in foul trouble.

Like him to put up 19+ shots and play 35+ mins unless its a blowout out...my last 2 bets found the blowouts...crazy

Only thing I don't like is the "he could be due for a bad game angle" but he coming off a 12 for 21 game after 3 games with under 10fg made

Like him to make 10-12 buckets with maybe 1 3 mixed in and 6+ made free throws 

Like him in the 28-34 range

GL all

Lucky win with sga

overall 13-14 -1.01 units

13-14 -1.01 0.5 unit plays

0-0 +0  1 unit plays

Leans

Chi/phx over 227.5 1.92

Trae over 9.5 assists 1.95

Don Mitchell over 25.5 points 1.70

Fox over 23.5 points 1.70

Mitchell and fox bit cold...hence low lines...good matchup for fox...sabonis revenge game too

Trae should dish vs magic....but he been shooting vs shitty teams this year and dishing more vs contenders 

Waiting to see what way chi/phx total moves

1 locked in

Trae over 9.5 assists @1.95 0.5 to win 0.475

Over this in 5 of last 10 and 13 vs magic last month

His shooting been bad last 2 games, looking for him to dish it while he in mini funk

Looking for him to feed Collins and capela in and around the paint

Only worry is if he shoots 25+ shots like he has been doing vs bad teams...or its a blowout

Couple other young guards on magic. Could speed up pace and lead to some odd man breaks

He should play 33+ min unless its a blowout

Like him in the 9-12 range

GL all

Trae don't mind a halftime cash

1 locked in

Mobley over 11.5 boards @2.00 0.5 to win 0.5

Allen out for cavs. Mobley should have lots of rebound opportunities

Over this in 2 of last 3 with Allen out...one under he has 8 in 25 mins

Magic decent rebounding team....Carter out and maybe bamba 

Only worry is if cavs blow them out and he plays under 28 mins

Like him in the 11-14 range 

GL all

Other leans

Durant over 27.5 points...don't like or guarding him so prob pass...but over 30 in 4 straight

Waiting on few other lines

1 locked in

Kyrie over 22.5 points @1.85  0.5 to win 0.425

Over this in 3 of last 6 and both games vs raptors this year with 27 and 29

Durant comes in red hot so raps might over focus on him

Kyrie made 8+ buckets in 6 straight

Raps don't have great paint defender so should be some opportunities near the rim

Simmons out so more shots to go around

Like him to put up 18+ shots and play 34+ mins unless its a blowout

Like him to make 8-11 bucket with 2-3 3s mixed in and 3-4+ made free throws 

Like him in the 21-25 range

GL all

1 locked in

Zion over 25.5 points @1.90  0.5 to win 0.45

Over this in 3 of last 4 and 32 vs spurs last week

Spurs allow ton of points in the paint.zion specialty

Only thing I don't like is mccollum prob back so hopefully they don't try and get him going and let him jack up 21+ shots...or if spurs triple team him...or a blowout

Ingram and Herbert out

Like him to put up 16+ shots and play 33+ mins unless its a blowout

Like him to make 9-12 buckets and make 4+ free throws 

Like him in the 24-29 range

GL all

Mobley

Kyrie

Zion

overall 17-14 +0.84 units

17-14 +0.84 0.5 unit plays

0-0 +0  1 unit plays