@BBGunzz
Excellent question.
Yes, I do. Because although the reason we bet early is to capture closing line value, that's just a bonus. The system isn't based ON capturing closing line value, it's fundamentally that I believe my algorithm is "more right" than the Vegas line, because even though it is sharp money is a big factor in line moves throughout the day, there are also other important factors that have nothing to do with capping, such as the need for bookies to be equally balanced on both sides. And even though sharp money is much more influential in line movement, there's far more public money overall in any wager, and that inevitably makes the public line inherently inefficient.
These bets can bets can be broken down into three main types:
1) a line that was in the dead zone at the open moves into the live zone (i.e. 3+ pts away from my line). This type is the most common,usually happening at least once every day. This bet is considered part of the system, and as such, it's automatic (i.e. I don't make any judgement call, if it hits that 3+ pts, it's a bet. If not, it isn't).
2) A line that was bet at the open moves toward us, and we have the ability to lock in at least a push by betting the other side, with the chance for a double win. i.e. a line opens at 200 and we take the over 200 b/c the algo says 210, and it then moves to 205, where you could take the under and have a chance to win on both if it hits between 201-205. This is the next most common, although it's still pretty rare. Maybe 1-2 a week. This one is always a judgement call, mostly based on how big of a window there is. Usually as a rule of thumb, the line needs to be at least in the dead zone. For instance, in the above example, I wouldn't actually make the bet, because the high range (205) is still below my line of 210. Plus I'd want a bigger window to win, otherwise you're just turning a likely winning bet into a likely push. If it rose to, say, 209-210 then I'd probably take that, as it's in my dead zone and there's a much bigger 9-10 pt window.
3) A line that was bet at the open moves away from us. Same as #2, it's never automatic, and rarely do I do it. Plus I'd also want to see a large movement in order to justify it. If a line moves against us by a couple points, I won't double down on that. But if it moves against us by 7-8 pts, I'll think much harder about it. The thing is, you don't want to throw good money after bad, and even though broadly speaking the market can be inefficient, you do need to respect the market when it's telling you something (as it would be if it made an 8 pt move lol). First I'd look again at injuries, forums, social media etc etc to see if there's an obvious reason for the move (injuries usually, or late game scratches). If there's nothing obvious, I'll go over the numbers again. If I see nothing there, I'll just do a sort of "gut feel" look at the teams playing and if I still don;t see why the move, I'll usually bet again.
Even though the bulk of my bets are the ones I post hereat the open, I'll usually have added a few over the course of the day that I don't post here as part of my own overall betting strategy. I don't post them because there's no way those to be accurately tracked since nobody would actually know when I made those bets and if I wanted I could just say I got them at lines which pad my stats and make my record look better.
By posting my lines before Vegas does, and always betting the opening line (which is public for anyone to see) I make it impossible for me to manipulate the results, thus giving credibiliity to my overall record.
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