NBA BREAKDOWN Thursday 03/31 (2 games)

Celtics @ Spurs -1.5 O/U: 187.5

Keep an eye on the injury situation in this one.  Will Ginobili and Duncan play tonight?  Will Jermaine O’Neal? If Duncan and Ginobili play, I have this game at -4 Spurs, so some solid value there.  We shall see (obviously if they’re confirmed the line will get adjusted).  Either way this is an interesting game.  Spurs have ‘revenge’ in this one, as they lost a narrow one in Boston in January, 105-103, as +2.5 road dogs.  (SA:  -3.5 home).  Spurs have lost 4 in a row so you have to imagine they’ll be ‘up’ for this one.  Celtics, though, have lost 3 of 4, as both teams are slumping going into the post-season.  Boston is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games while the Spurs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 at home.  Hmmm..  The O/U in the first meeting was 189, as it sailed over.  Now the opening number is a tad lower.  Boston has finally broken their 10 game UNDER streak, with an OVER in their last game.  5 of the last 6 Spurs games have gone OVER.  Even so, I expect a bit more urgency from both squads in this game and a ‘playoff’ atmosphere is not out of the question.  Leans:  Spurs and UNDER.

Mavericks @ Lakers -6.5 O/U: 191

The teams met twice this season, splitting a pair of contests in Dallas.  Now they play on Lakers’ home court.  Both teams are rolling right now.  Mavs have won 5 straight while the Lakers won 7 straight, and 15 of their last 16.  This team is playing very well going into the post-season.  Big game for both squad as each is fighting for the #2 seed in the playoffs.  Currently, Dallas is only ½ game back and the winner of this game will own the tie-breaker as this is the 3rd and final meeting between the 2 squads.  Expect a playoff ‘type’ of atmosphere in this one.  The O/U in the previous 2 meetings:  189 O and 194 U.  This posted total is right in the middle of the previous 2.  Is this an indication that the book-makers aren’t sure which way this game will play out?  Expect a ‘playoff’ type atmosphere in this one.  Leans:  PASS on the side as the line is right on and Dallas plays well in b2b situations and UNDER. 

Quote Originally Posted by canadiantruth:

Spurs injury status makes it a no play for me.

Mavs @ lakers, under looks great on paper, but my damn gut won't let me play it.

I actually like dallas +6, because we all know they have a legit shot to win this straight up, pretty good value there.

Good luck with whatever you decide, and thanks for another solid write up.

You think there's good value with Dallas at +6? This line tells me that Lakers are 2 points better than Dallas on a neutral court (account for b2b ~ 1 point), and I'm not sure if I can argue with that.  I think the line is right on.  I see no 'value' either way there...

Am I capping MLB today?  Yes.  Am I going to have any plays?  Not so sure.....  Might just enjoy the opening day and watch the games... 

Quote Originally Posted by PurduePride2206:

GL bodio, i;m on the mavs and like the spurs but waiting to see who's playing for them tonight

Fading the Lakers eh?  I just can't do it.  GL though!

how have you beeen doing lately Bodio? been busy the past two week. I'm ready to get some today

really enjoy reading youre insights

remember stay off those double digit favs

both unders

especially c's/spurs

It just tells me how intelligent you are Bodio,you just  want to see how the teams react on the first few games before you start to play, 

Bodio - thanks again for the great write-up.

One factual correction.  Dallas doesn't own the tiebreaker if they win tonight. The first tiebreaker isn't head-to-head but division winner.  So Lakers actually have the tiebreaker. 

That's only if there's a tie. If Dallas has a better record, they're the #2 seed.

  No Play for me....BOL

Lakers ML is my play