NBA BREAKDOWN Tuesday 04/05

Timberwolves @ Nets -5.5 O/U: 203.5

Nets are looking to snap a 6-game losing streak, while the Wolves are looking to end their 10 game slide in this one.  Love is OUT for this game and so is Humphries for the Nets.  New Jersey has welcomed D-Will back to their rotation, but that didn’t necessarily translate into wins.  Will tonight be the night?  Nets have ‘revenge’ in this one after getting blown out by the Wolves on New-Year’s day.  The O/U in that first game was: 204 and the UNDER hit.  Neither team is playing much D right now and I expect the ‘young’ guys from both teams to run-and-gun in this one.  Leans:  Nets and OVER.

Spurs @ Hawks OFF

The Spurs have finally ended their 6-game losing streak, with a home win against a short-handed Suns squad.  In addition, the Lakers lost, thus giving San Antonio some ‘cushion’ in the standings.  Keep in mind that the Bulls are only 1 game back in the ‘losing’ column, thus this is no time for the Spurs to relax.  Atlanta has covered 6 in a row, and they’ve done it with their D.  Hawks are allowing 89 ppg in this span.  In December, the Spurs blew away the Hawks by 16 pts, as -8 point favorites.  Expect them to be -2/-3 favorites tonight.  (Josh Smith is Questionable for this game).  The O/U was 194.5 in that first meeting and it sailed OVER.  It’s hard to play the UNDER in games where the Spurs are involved.  This team is very efficient on offense, but is also NOT playing any D lately.  Leans:  Spurs and OVER.

Bucks @ Magic -8.5 O/U: 180

We have a very low total and a fairly large spread in this one.  Automatically, we should first look to back the ‘dog’ in this one.  The Bucks impressed me in their last game, as they came back from being down 9 points at HT to the Sixers, to win the game in OT.  The question is, can they sustain that ‘effort’?  They are down 3 games to the Pacers for the 8th spot in the East with 6 games to go.  Pacers though have 4 games left, 3 of them at home, so it’s not looking good for the Bucks.  Either way, I do expect this team to play hard the rest of the way.  Orlando is coming off a very lackadaisical effort in Toronto.  This team is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 and 1-9 ATS in their last 10.   Milwaukee is on ‘double-revenge’ in this one, and are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games.  The O/U’s:  183.5 U; 188 U; 182.5 U.  This posted total is the lowest of the series.  I can’t help and disregard the lack of ‘effort’ from Orlando in their last 4 games or so.  Leans:  Bucks and OVER.

Pistons @ Wizards OFF

Don’t look now but Wizards have a 2-game winning streak going.  Unfortunately, this team is 0-9 ATS this season when coming off a win as an underdog.  Even so, Detroit is a team that is just in complete disarray.  Injuries, player mutiny, and now insubordination, has really put a damper in their season.  Washington is on ‘double-revenge’ in this one and with the way they’re playing right now, I expect this team to be favored in this one.  O/U’s:  194 O and 203 O.  Neither team is really playing much D right now.  Leans:  Wizards and OVER.

Bobcats @ Cavaliers OFF

Jackson and Thomas aren’t expected to play for the Bobcats in this one.  Boris Diaw got benched in the last game.  Even against the lowly Cavs, it’s hard to see this Bobcats team competing on the road here.  Sure, they’re technically still in the playoff race, but after losing to the Wizards at home, I think all hope is gone.  The Cavs have ‘double-revenge’ in this one and this team is 3-2 ATS at home in their last 5 games.  Do the Cats have one last ‘run’ left in them?  The O/U’s:  197.5 U and 191.5 O.  It would be interesting to see where this line comes out at.  I would expect the Cavs to control the pace in this one.  Leans:  Cavs and OVER.

Sixers @ Celtics OFF

These teams have played 3 really close games with Philly having a 2-1 edge SU and 3-0 ATS.  I don’t think the Celtics will take them ‘lightly’ tonight.  Lou Williams is most likely out for this one and Iguodala could sit as well, with a knee injury.  Either way, Sixers don’t really have much to play for.  Sure the Knicks are 1.5 games back, but does it really matter if you play the Celtics or the Heat in the first round of the playoffs?  The way this team performed in the 2nd half game against the Bucks, is all you need to know about their level of motivation right now.  Celtics are fighting for a #2 seed and I expect their best effort in this one. The O/U’s:  188.5 O; 191.5 U; 193 U.  The opening # will be a pretty good sign of where this one is going.  If it opens higher than 193, the OVER is worth a look.  If it’s lower, then the UNDER should be considered.  Leans:  Celtics and Wait-and-See on the total.

Raptors @ Knicks OFF

Raptors are coming off a big home win versus the Magic, while the Knicks have quietly put together a 3-game winning streak.  Knicks have a game @ Philly coming up tomorrow thus a potential ‘look-ahead’ spot.  The Raptors have a ‘triple-revenge’ angle in this one and have actually covered 3 of their last 4 games.  The O/U’s:  215 U; 218.5 U; 220.5 O.  Neither team is playing any D and I expect this total to open in the 220-range.  Leans:  PASS on the side and OVER.

Suns @ Bulls OFF

Big game for Chicago, as they’re trying to catch the Spurs for the best overall record as well as keep Miami and Boston at bay in the East.  One problem is that they’re hosting the Celtics in 2 days.  How much of a ‘distraction’ will that be?  Will Chicago put in the max effort needed to blow out the Suns in this one?  They’ve already beaten the Suns this year, thus Phoenix has the ‘revenge’ angle in this one.  Either way, I’m not so sure that the Bulls will be motivated to get a blow-out win here.  Keep an eye on the injury status of Boozer, Noah, and Nash.  The O/U was 210 in the previous meeting and sailed over.  Bulls are known as a defensive team but have actually played 8 of their last 9 games to the OVER.  The O/U is 6-2 in Suns’ last 8 games.  Leans:  PASS on the side and OVER.

Clippers @ Grizzlies -9 O/U: 199

The Grizzlies have now covered 8 straight games and have just been ‘waxing’ opponents.  Clippers are coming off a big upset win versus Okie City in their last game.  This team usually carries that ‘momentum’ into future games but will they be able to hang with this Grizz team that is playing their best ball of the season?  Clippers have ‘double-revenge’ in this one after losing a close game at home and getting blown-out here in Memphis on March 14th.  Interesting, Grizz were -5.5 point favorites in that one.  Now, not even a month later, Grizz are 3.5 points better?  Clippers are healthy now (they didn’t have Gordon in the last meeting) and if you compare the 2 lines, you could see the solid ‘line-value’ favoring LA in this one.  These teams will play one more time in a week, so the outcome of today’s game could impact which way I’ll lean in the last meeting.  Either way, can I go against this incredible ATS run that Grizzlies are on?  The O/U’s: 198 U and 201 U.  3 of Clippers’ last 4 games have gone UNDER.  Memphis has held the Clippers to 83 points average this season.  Hmmm.. Leans:  Clippers (just too many points here but can anyone really go against Memphis right now?) and UNDER.

Thunder @ Nuggets -3.5 O/U: 206.5

These 2 teams have split the two meetings this year, with each winning and covering on their own home court.  Nuggets just continue on rolling, beating the Lakers on the road in their last game and winning 6 straight.  Okie City is on a 2-game losing streak and just hasn’t been really motivated lately.  This will be a ‘preview’ of a 1st round matchup between the 2 squads.  Okie City is giving up 102 ppg in their last 4 while Denver is holding opponents to 91 ppg in the same time span.  Big difference in ‘effort’ here.  The O/U’s:  214.5 O and 221 U.  This total is very low in comparison, indicating that the book-makers are expecting more of a low-scoring, playoff type atmosphere in this one.  I agree.  Leans: Nuggets and UNDER.

Warriors @ Blazers -10.5 O/U: 201

To me the Warriors are pretty much an ‘automatic’ fade on the road.  The problem is that the book-makers know this mindset from the public and not surprisingly have inflated this line.  Portland were -5.5 point home favorites in December and +3 dogs in Oakland a week later.  They’ve split the 2 meetings SU but GSW is 2-0 ATS.  Either way, even though the Blazers have improved with addition of G-Wall, it’s easy to see that this line is over-inflated by about 2.5 points.  The question is, will I bite?  The O/U’s:  198.5 U and 202.5 O.  This game is in Portland so I’m not surprised that this total is slightly lower than the last meeting.  Portland is LAST in NBA in PACE and I do expect them to slow this game down a bit.  3 of the Warriors’ last 4 games have gone UNDER.  Leans:  Warriors and UNDER.

Jazz @ Lakers OFF

I wouldn’t want to face the Lakers coming off a home loss, but that’s exactly what Utah will have to do in this one.  These teams met on the 1st with the Lakers covering as -8 point road favorite.  Utah actually led at HT, but LA was just too dominant in the 2nd half.  With a SA this line should be around -14 tonight.  Either way it’s going to be a large number.  Can the Jazz snap their 4 game ATS-losing streak (they actually have an 8 game SU losing streak)?  The O/U’s: 202.5 U; 199 O; 194 U.  See where this one opens.  I think it will be a good starting point, knowing where the books expect this one to go.  Leans:  PASS on the side and Wait-and-See on the total.

WILL YOU BE GOING TO ANY BULLS PLAYOFF GAMES

Agree on the Spurs......Sunday was a NO BRAINER on the Spurs. I crushed the half-6 and game-10.5    was surprised so many people didn"t take them.

Watch out for the best team in the NBA...they have gone through their rough patch.........     Shouls be another great showdown between LA and Duncan Town.!

First eh?  You didn't like the others ones? 

hehe 

Unfortunately I didn't get the tickets...I seem to NEVER be able to get any tix through ticketmaster when they are released!  WTF?

Agree!

do you like the houston game or you like Houston to be win? from i've read your thread you pick Kings+9?

I'm on opposite. i'll go with Rockets -9 Good Luck for us.

Use Stubhub for any playoff ticket have used it many times and it never failed.

I like the Clippers and Wizards a lot, might consider the under in the Nuggets game as OKC has had since Saturday to get their defense ready for this game, I might take your Celtics lean (what's the highest line you would hit Celtics at?)

I'm surprised you are leaning Warriors.  I think this line is set high for a reason and it reminds of the Jazz-Kings game.  Blazers are rolling and are making a concious effort to get ready for the Warriors.  Public on GS and Blazers with 5-0 record ATS as double-digit favs makes me think GS is unbackable.

Great write-ups buddy look forward to your final card tomorrow!

Thanks buddy.  Here it is:

Kings @ Rockets -9 O/U: 220

The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games, playing their best ‘ball’ of the season.  The Rockets aren’t too shabby either going 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games.  SacTown is on ‘triple-revenge’ in this one.  Houston has beaten them by an average of 15 ppg in those 3 games, covering all 3 in the process.  First game between the 2 teams, the Rockets were -9.5 point home favorites.  Then they were -3.5 road favs (SA: -9.5 @ home) and -4.5 road favs (SA: -10.5 @ home).  Either way you look at it, the line is fairly accurate, set at -9, thus accounting for the ‘triple-revenge’ factor.  Interestingly, prior to this year, SacTown were 4-0 ATS (1-3 SU) at Houston the last couple of years.  O/U’s:  203 O; 206 U; 216.5 O.  This is the highest posted total between these 2 squads this season.  Neither team is playing much D right now, choosing to ‘outscore’ their opponents instead.  Leans:  PASS on the side as I just can’t back either in this spot and OVER.

Well, it's not a factor in 'all' games.  I like to see which team has a positive ATS record in 'revenge' spots and which don't.  You can identify teams that make better adjustments and/or play harder in 'revenge' spots based on that. 

If you're asking a 'general question' about 'revenge', well you have to remember, that NBA is a very 'emotional' league.  Emotion/motivation plays a big part here.  The lines on NBA games are for the most part very 'efficient' and it's not often that you find strong 'line-value'.  Thust factors like motivation, emotion ('revenge'), fatigue-spots (scheduling), etc. play a good part in handicapping this particular league.  At least that's my experience with it.

I'm assuming you don't think it's a factor, so I'm curious to know why you dont' think it is?

I hate paying more than face-value for tickets though, plus the fees that Stubhub charges are outrageous!

I have Celtics at -7.

I like that UNDER OKC/DEN...Need to look into that one some more.

Yeah, my lean on GSW has to do with pure 'value' being on them.  It does not mean I would necessarily consider betting that team.  Warriors on the road at the of the season are unbackable.  But am I willing to lay 2.5 or so additional points with the Blazers here?  Absolutely not.  This game is a PASS for me, but definitely a lean to the Warriors based on 'line-value'

Hope that makes sense.  Good luck today Bake!