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NBA DEBACLE 2013 2012 - 56%

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Posted: #101
Nice night! GL tomorrow and keep it up!
 
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Posted: #102
Alan - thanks, and GL as well.

One month down...
 
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Posted: #103
Adding Pacers under 192.5.  Line crawled up enough for me to back the under.  Not sure how much juice the Blazers have after last nights late win.

Blazers TT under 95.5  1 unit.  Almost have to bet it if you think its going under.  Dont see Pacers opponents get this many points too often.
 
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Posted: #104
Pacers under is for 1 unit.
 
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Posted: #105
F me.  All three bets went from win to loss in the 4th quarter.  Pacers just got too tired.  Once the game got away from them, Blazers ran it.  Man, if George had hit that 3 to pull it within one...

0-3 for -4.4 units.  Tempers that 7-2 day yesterday.

Overall now 62-47-2 for +11.2 units.
 
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Posted: #106
Thunder -6.5  1 unit.  Thunder just bury the Kings each time they play them.  They have won the past 6 by 9, 10, 10, 8, 11, and 26.  One 10 and the 11 on the road.  Personnel changes haven't been drastic.  

Bucks +7.5  1 unit.  The Bucks have somehow played the Celtics twice this year already and won both by 7 on a home/road split.  Celts probably win here but that's a lot of points for a team that clearly matches up well.

Warriors -7.5  1 unit.  Warriors went through a stretch of 4 road games and 3 quality opponents at home.  Look for them to take out their frustrations here.
 
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Posted: #107
Memphis down to -2.5  Ill bite.  1 unit.
 
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Posted: #108
F me...That's what I get for shooting from the hip on that Memphis bet.  Suns havent been good on the road, figured even with Randolph and Gasol out, home team had a shot. 
 
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Posted: #109
Missed the Bucks game by a half a point and well...missed the other two plays by a mile.  The Memphis bet turned around however, saving the day from a total disaster.  

1-3 today for -2.3 units.

That's an unsettling trend.  After that 7-2 day Ive gone 1-6.  Hopefully this is one of the few rough spots this year.

Overall 63-50-2 for +8.9 units.  Still at 55.6% but was pushing 60% a week ago...
 
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Posted: #110
Dammit.  Why do I write these before games are over?  Thats twice this year.  Both positive results though - maybe I should do it more often.

That Warriors comeback was unreal, comical even.

So, revised results:

2-2 today for -.2 units.

Overall 64-49-2 for +11.1 units.

Again, nuts ending...
 
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Posted: #111
Pacers under 188.  Grabbing this before it drops.  1 unit.  Pacers will be happy to get back to strangling inferior opponents like the Jazz.

Pacers -8.5  1 unit.  Like I said, they'll be happy getting back to destroying inferior teams.

Hawks under 203.  1 unit.  Atlanta games averaging 191 at home.  Clippers slow it down as well away from Staples averaging 202 on the road.  Its also the start of a looong road trip for the Clippers, I expect them to play at a more deliberate pace.

Spurs under 205.5  1 unit.  Both teams seem to slug it out when they play, going under 203 the last 4 contests.  Plus with the game in Mexico City at much higher elevation, endurance will be a factor and should slow things down.

Spurs -3.5  1 unit.  Mexico City = Spurs home game.  Also Rudy T probably had the team train in Denver just for this one game this summer.  I expect better preparation from the Spurs to cope with the altitude.  Could get ugly with the Wolves usual 4th quarter collapses.

Denver -3.5  1 unit.  Nuggets are in sync and just blasting teams.  Recent victim was the Nets at home, Cavs up next to be dispatched.

Nuggets over 202.5  1 unit.  Denver will run but Cleveland and Irving will at least show up and make a game of it.  Nets are downright shameful for their no effort.  If there was relegation, the Knicks and Nets should go just based on they are playing for paychecks.

OKC +2.  1 unit.  With no rest, I wanted to pick the Blazers but the Thunder have simply owned this series winning 7 in a row and 4 of those in Portland.

Blazers under 206.  1 unit.  I get the Blazers push but its been totals of 196, 186, 170, and 198 the last four encounters.  Chess match I suppose.

Lots of picks again...
 
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Posted: #112
Dallas under 207.5  Line seems high for two teams that when they play each other they consistently go under.  Totals of 196, 204, 195, 189, 164, and 177 that date back two years.  Dallas has only gotten slower.  1 unit.

10 plays....eeesh

 
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Posted: #113
Nuggets -3.5. 1 unit.  Ok, biting at two possessions.  Public backing the Nuggets but line drops.  I get this is on a back to back for Nuggets but here's a dirty little secret - despite all the commercials that would imply the opposite, Ty Lawson is playing better ball than Kyrie Irving.  Less turnovers, better shooting percentage, and more assists.  That spreading the wealth isn't indicative of just a better player but also better teammates.  Who would you rather have taking that cut to the rim, Varejao or Faried?  Im hesitant on more units because of the b2b but everything else says Nuggets.
 
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Posted: #114
Thanks Thunder!  Ugh.  Lesson learned today:  If you think the Blazers are going to win, take the over because when they are ahead, they hit the turbo button.

Thought I was going to end 5-3......no....3-5 for -4.6 units.

NBA has been choppy lately.  After that 7-2 day, Ive gone 6-13.

Overall now 67-54-2 for +6.5 units.
 
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Posted: #115
Well, lets start tomorrow with Knick/Nets over 189.  2 units.

Since both teams are the absolute worst and they cant possibly give up in this battle of turds (Carmelo's battle for NY call), I see a hotly contested battle into the 190s at least.

Miami -4.5  1 unit.  Lebron better hope to keep pace with the Pacers.  Also gives Lebrons a chance for the Bulls to get humiliated.
 
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Posted: #116
Grinding.  Stupid Heat.  Always on the wrong side of them.

1-1 for +.9 units.

Overall 68-55-2 for +7.4 units.
 
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Posted: #117
Rockets -4.5  1 unit.  Rockets will look to bounce back after their embarrassing loss at home versus the Suns.  Even with Parsons out, the Warriors are hurting more without Iggy and they had no right coming back on Toronto as much as I am a fan.

Hawks -6.  1 unit.  Cavs looked good against the Nuggets at home but that 1-9 road record is too glaring.  Horford and Milsap can hopefully limit fat Bynum in the paint.

OKC -5.  1 unit.  Pelicans have been playing fine with Davis but up against the Thunder it wont matter.  They had the Blazers game in hand and were up double digits.  They wont let this one slip away and the Pelicans dont have the shooters that Porland does.

OKC under 205.  1 unit.  OKC goes up big early and the Pels dont have the shooters to bring them back.

Kings -3.  1 unit.  Kings have played tough to Warriors, Clippers, and Thunder at home.  Even with Gasol back, I think the Kings finally get one in the win column with a lesser opponent.

Kings over 202.  1 unit.  when they do win, save the season opener, they've needed to score at least 107.  Lakers will try to keep pace.

Jazz +12.  1 unit.  Blazers are good at beating teams, not blowing them out.  There definitely seems to be a lack of lock down D.

Blazers over 201.  1 unit.  Run run run to win.

 
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Posted: #118
Bobcats under 198.5  2 units.  What happens when crap plays crap?  See Knicks-Nets last night.  Knicks went nuts and the total still only hit 196.  MCW out.  Gilchrist out.  Whos exactly scoring?  Also, there have been ZERO games involving Charlotte that have hit 198 with 197 being tops out of 19 games.  Most in the 180s.  Not happening tonight either.
 
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Posted: #119
Bobcats TT 102.5.  1 unit.  Yeah, OK.  Highest total of the year so far has been 102 in NY.
 
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Posted: #120
To clarify that is TT under for the Bobcats.
 
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Posted: #121
Why do I screw with the gimmick bets?

Looking like 5-1 early (with the 1 the stupid TT gimmick bet)

4 bets to go - will it be the usual crash and burn?

So far, Kings and over and Portland over look good but the Jazz have got to score to make that happen...

Hoping for an 8-2 day...
 
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Posted: #122
Getting in early picks for tomorrow before lines move:

Memphis PK.  1 unit.  Been here before.  They own the Warriors.  Until they prove differently, regardless of line-up, I'll fade them.

Clippers - 6  2 units.  Cavs on a back to back.  Fat Bynum is f*ked.  Just saw what Horford and Milsap did to him, now insert Blake and Jordan.  I can hear him wheezing already...

Spurs -3.5  1 unit.  One of the few times I will fade the Pacers.  Line too close, Spurs have had a LOT of time off, got a free trip to Mexico, well rested.  At home it should be enough.

Pacers under 188.  1 unit.  Why stop now?

Bulls -4.5  1 unit.  OK, maybe they have accepted the Rose is out challenge.  I fully expected them to collapse against the Heat.  Bulls own the Pistons at home.
 
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Posted: #123
Kings choked away that ending.  Should have covered.  Still, split the last 4 giving me 7-3 for the day and got the big bet.

7-3 for +4.7 units.

Overall 75-58-2 for +15.1 units.  
 
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Posted: #124
Worst betting day in recent memory - across all 3 - NCB, NCF, and NBA - massive fail.  Percentages going to take some hits.

Its probably because I bet against UCLA in basketball today.  Ugh.

In NBA, 0-5 for -6.6 units.

Overall 75-63-2 for +8.5 units.
 
 
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Posted: #125
Pacers over 194.5  1 unit.  Thats alot of points against this defense.  But on the back to back, Pacers might not have the defense prowess they need.  OKC at home on a days rest, they'll probably look to run it.

Just one play after yesterdays hammering.
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