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NBA DEBACLE 2013 2012 - 56%

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Posted: #126
Not 5-0 but its a start.

1-0 for 1 unit.

Overall 76-63-2 for +9.5 units.
 
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Posted: #127
Washington over 197.5. 2 units. This is the lowest O/U since 2008 set for two teams that both favor an uptempo offense. Both teams are rested so they should have their shots on and their legs rested. Neither really plays shut down defense and even with Lawson hurt or out, the Nuggets are still runners. No Nene also means no interior D for the Wiz.

Washington +1.5 1 unit One of the few bright spots in the East still. After the trade for Gortat, they have been decent and is still one of the few teams that can match up to the West. Lawson hurt or out is more worrisome than Beal out.

Warriors -5.5 1 unit. I was on the fence until I found out Charlotte is one of the worst 3 point defending teams.

Warriors over 192.5. 1 unit. Lots of bombs away usually means more points and a game of catch-up.

Orlando +9. 1 unit. Grizz have been awful at home. Also without Gasol and Allen again.

Also grabbing EARLY for tomorrows game, Indiana -3. 4 units. No WAY Pacers lose this. They will be out to show whos the team to beat.
 
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Posted: #128
Portland over 203.  1 unit.  Hope the Jazz can keep up.  Blazers seem content with skipping the defense part of things and simply outscoring opponents.  That 32 point thrashing will probably have the Jazz make a better game of it but the total is low enough to take the over.

Clippers under 209.  2 units.  Clippers MASH unit needs someone who can score.  Jordan now potentially out.  With out MCW for Philly, they have lost a gear as well.  As Ive mentioned (to myself) before, Clippers tend to slow down on the road.  All that adds up to a healthy under.
 
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Posted: #129
Are you aware Nene and M. Webster are not expected to play?
 
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Posted: #130
Nevermind you are 
 
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Posted: #131
Thoughts on Dallas and Sac? 1H  I am leaning Sac +2.0

Younger guys playing old men on the 3rd game of a long road trip.  Sac is scrappy and been keeping games close, Dallas has been winning but do they really care about the lowly Kings with GS on deck?  I think the old men take a breather at least in the 1H tonight.
 
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Posted: #132
mikeypao - yeah, still thought that the up tempo teams would still run based on philosophy regardless of whos playing but apparently Ty Lawson is their engine.

Rough 1st quarter - will need some shots to fall or gulp, some OT.

sscott - I avoid 1st and 2nd half plays but if your angle is old men, I dont think Dallas would show that in the first half.  Maybe you hope for a close or tied game at half and hope the Kings pull away in the 2nd.  No play.

Was hoping the Dallas/Sac line was a tad lower and take the over but didnt happen.

Trying to be smarter and not force plays.
 
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Posted: #133
Man, thought I had Magic game.  Ill take the push but damn.

3-2-1 so far, need the Blazers and Jazz to turn on the jets...
 
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Posted: #134
Looking like 3-3-1 for -.3.... More grind.

In addition to the Pacers -3 for 4 units adding:

Pacers under 190.  1 unit.  Miami Indiana games go under and with a days rest, lockdown D and at home, should be a low scoring grudge match.

Cleveland -2  2 units.   After being forced to watch the Knicks play their last few games....fade fade fade.  Just awful.  
 
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Posted: #135
Sweet! Sac cover the 1H by a bunch.    

Got a tad worried there in the 2Q but the starters came back in and got em back in the money.

Not sure about 2H though.  We'll see.
 
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Posted: #136
No play on Sac 2H.  Total is to close to 1H total.

Gun to the head Dal -5 on the side but I won't play it.  Hard to say if they will bow up or mail it in at this point.  Personally I think they are taking the night off and will bust it against GS on Wed.

Looking to bet Dallas on Wed if the line is attractive.
 
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Posted: #137
sscott - great call!  I should have gone for the over anyway.

As for me, yup 3-3-1 for the day for -.3 units.

Overall 79-65-3 for +9.2 units.  Hanging around that 56% still.

Also adding to the above three plays:

Lakers -3.  1 unit.  While the scrappy Suns will do their best to steal one from LA, I cant see Kobe losing another at home, rust or not.

Suns under 207.  1 unit.  Kobe rust equals slower play.
 
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Posted: #138
Cant believe I missed this one:

Celtics +2.5  2 units.  Nets are falling apart.  $1M assistants making "daily reports", Kidd saying Im the "mf" in charge, getting blasted by the Knicks.  Writing is on the wall for Kidd.  Now Brad Stevens comes to town, possibly the most prepared young coach in the NBA.  You dont think hes going to run circles around a distracted and clearly not ready for NBA coaching Kidd and create mismatches all day?  This one could get ugly too.
 
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Posted: #139
Pistons -1. 1 unit. I really like how the Pistons are coming along and that line seems really low for the home team considering the Wolves are terrible on the road.  Love back from loss of his grandmother so hopefully hes not distracted but could be.  Also noticing the trend of Western teams getting extra juice on Eastern teams so probably a factor in the short line.  Pistons put together a good string of wins (versus a depleted Chicago and Miami BUT on the road) and I like Monroe and Drummond to lock Love out of his inside game a bit.

Pistons under 205.5.  1 unit.  The total seems high as well for two teams that average under this total in their home and aways.  Thinking Love vs Detroits two bigs plays out for the under as well.
 
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Posted: #140
Wolves last 5 - Heat, Thunder, Mavs, Pacers, Nuggets 1-4
Detroit last 5 - Heat twice, Bulls, Bucks, Sixers 4-1


 
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Posted: #141
jep - I think your argument is the Wolves record is from tough competition but they have lost on the road to the Wizards and Cavs as well.  

I also get the Heat win was against a Wade-less team.

Overall its close but I think home court plus Drummond and Monroe isndie versus Love is the difference.
 
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Posted: #142
Celtics 
 
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Posted: #143
It appears the Celtics are being undervalued due to the B2B against the Clips tomorrow.  I don't buy it though.  Youth vs age again.  Celtics should steamroll the dumpster fire Nets.
 
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Posted: #144
Bucks/Bulls over 181.  1 unit.  Save an ugly game in Charlotte and the opener in NY, the Bucks have gone over on the road.  Conversely, the Bulls last game at home versus Detroit might have this line a little lower where they went 3-18 from 3 pt land.  Their home games average around 188 points.  Bucks can crap it up and stop trying for sure but with GTAS OJ Mayo back in the lineup and scoring, it should hit that total.

9 plays...
 
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Posted: #145
Quote Originally Posted by sscott999:

It appears the Celtics are being undervalued due to the B2B against the Clips tomorrow.  I don't buy it though.  Youth vs age again.  Celtics should steamroll the dumpster fire Nets.

sscott - great points as well.  Im just going with coaching wizard who's team beleives in him versus dumpster fire coach and players who are moving as far away as possible from coach cancer.  Your points make it a lock!  Lets get it!  
 
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Posted: #146
Also leaning Knick +2.5 vs Cavs.  Cavs in game 1 of a B2B playing Div opponent Bulls tomorrow.

Line opened at -3 Cavs and dropped to -2.5 with heavy public action on the Cavs.

Have not played it yet though.
 
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Posted: #147
Quote Originally Posted by sscott999:

Also leaning Knick +2.5 vs Cavs.  Cavs in game 1 of a B2B playing Div opponent Bulls tomorrow.

Line opened at -3 Cavs and dropped to -2.5 with heavy public action on the Cavs.

Have not played it yet though.

SCRATCH THAT.  Knicks are playing the Bulls tomorrow, NOT the Cavs.

NO PLAY with the LINE move.
 
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Posted: #148
sscott - fair enough but have you seen the Knicks play?  I suppose you could say the same of the Cavs though.  My only regret is I went 2 units, should have temped my internal "Knicks suck!" emotion when I saw the line.

We'll see what happens.

One last play as the O/U creeped up even more:

Hawks under 204.5  1 unit.  Hawks at home play a tight game and as I've mentioned here before OKC is just deadly efficient not necessarily a run and gun first team like Portland.  They have Durant and Westbrook who can do it but Atlanta seems to run games around the 195-200 mark at home even against high pace teams.
 
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Posted: #149
F me.  Crushed my first three strong bets but the rest fell apart.  WAY off on Detroit/Minn game and Lakers game.  

Lesson learned: Yeah, fade the Eastern Conference versus the West on short lines...

Still, big bets saved the day.  4-6 for +1.4 units.

Overall 83-71-3 for +10.6 units
 
 
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Posted: #150
Clippers -5.5.  1 unit.  Celts really pushed hard to steal that win against the Nets last night.  They know the Nets are bottom feeders and had a shot.  However that expended energy wont help versus a rested Clippers team.

Knicks over 183.  1 unit.  Knicks will run the Bulls, Chicago just needs to keep up.  Last five between these two at MSG has been at least 193.  Plus the Knicks and Bulls both know this is a game they can win so SOME effort might be involved.

Minnesota under 210.5.  3 units.  Big play here.  No idea why this line is so high.  For Philly, no MCW, no scoring.  Sure the Wolves can score and they burned me yesterday but thats because Detroit could keep up.  Philly cant, at least right now.  Big lead for the Wolves then pack it in time.

Minnesota -12.5  1 unit.  Same reasons as above.

OKC -6.  1 unit.  Efficient Thunder over the MASH unit.  No Gasol, no Allen, and an inability to win at home versus one of the West's best teams.
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