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NBA DEBACLE 2013 2012 - 56%

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Posted: #176
 
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Posted: #177
Agree with Atlanta. Superrior team here. With all the injuries to Wash dont see them covering. Going back to Denver game. 8 of the last 9 games Denver has played have been on the road. Thats a lot of roadies. Can see let down and fatigue. They had a hard fought 1 point win in Wash. Let down possibility even with Lawson in the lineup. 10.5 is a big spread
“You don’t get what you hope for, you get what you work for!”
 
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Posted: #178
NYK fade
 
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Posted: #179
Lets get it Spread, PGA, and Juice!  
 
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Posted: #180

Spurs -8.5

 
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Posted: #181
With you on the Pacers under 183.5 (not looking good), Bos -3, and Bos under 190. 
 
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Posted: #182
Juice - GL

Mikey - definitely some choppy water right now.  Bos/NY shooting the lights out - hopefully they cool off
 
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Posted: #183
MF $#%#@$%##@^@^

3-5 so far.  Need the Nuggs to pull me even....
 
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Posted: #184
Double hangover today.  One from going out and one from the action.

3-7 on the night.  Alot of them went down to the wire and could have gone either way but in the end, I probably needed to pare them down to a more manageable 5 or so.  But I went for the home run ball to break the unit total open and well, didnt.

3-7 for -5.8 units.

Overall now 91-82-3 but for +9.3 units.
 
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Posted: #185
Hawks -1.  1 unit.  Both teams with disappointing losses last night, although I'll take the NY loss to Boston.  Atlanta won this convincingly on 11/13 110-90 and that was when the Knicks thought they weren't as dysfunctional as they are.  I think they are in collect paycheck mode and definitely have 4141 life in full swing....even though there is no chance these guys get to 41 wins.

Clippers under 195.  1 unit.  Stephen Jackson is killing this team lately.  They're slower and lose on defense with the old man out there.  I know he was brought in to replace Riddick but Ive never been a fan and that was when he was years younger.

Going to wait to see if I can get Wiz +5 or more.

Bobcats -2.5.  1 unit.  Wish Lakers had played OKC tougher so the Bobcats would be getting points but as long as Slowbe is out there,  Walker and Henderson will no doubt exploit this and I cant see the Lakers getting their first win yet.

Philly under 212.  1 unit.  Burned on them last night by a single bucket but Im going to stick with the no MCW no over narrative.  Both teams a tad slower on their home and away O/U so hoping this should do the trick.

Not sure on SA game yet either...
 
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Posted: #186
Woof here as well.

0-4 for -4.4 units.

91-86-3 but for +4.9 units.

Scaling back the pics is in order...
 
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Posted: #187
Portland -3.5  2 units.  Going with the West versus East angle here.  Pistons 1-7 vs the West, the lone win versus Sac.


 
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Posted: #188
Nuggets -6.5  1 unit.  Utah game an aberration

Memphis +2.5.  1 unit.  Expect to see a 4th quarter Minn collapse.  Timberwolves awful against teams that play defense..

Portland line dropped, I must be on fade.  Ha.


 
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Posted: #189
Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuu*k.  Damn you Portland.  Close but no cigar.

1-2 for -2.3 units.

92-88-3 but for +2.6 units.

DEBACLE!
 
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Posted: #190
I like your O/U insight better 
 
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Posted: #191
Mikey - right now I have NO insight.

Other than bad capping and a bit of bad luck on a few bets, Im going to go with the 4141 life theory as to why I've been so off lately.

Basically the first month of the NBA, all players even bad ones on bad teams have the "hope" springs eternal mentality.  New season, new record, coaches got them amped up, maybe they win a few games and say to themselves, "Hey, we might be decent" "hey, we got this"  THEN reality sets in and after 6 weeks, they see they arent as good as they hoped so the "well, at least Im getting paid" mindset kicks in.  And its holiday season so family problems and the holidays flare up, just like with everyone else so players are more subject to distractions.

Add this combo up and you get unpredictability and deviations from the first month of the season.

Now again, bad capping from me first and foremost lately but next year, Im going to seriously look at who is focused and who isn't week to week during the grind part of the season.  Its a 4141 life for most of these guys I have to remember.

We'll see...
 
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Posted: #192
Pacers under 193.  1 unit.  I dont like the fact that Detroit goes on shooting barrages more on the road than at home but I have to trust the Pacers defense, which was solid for most of the year to shut things down.

Care-o-meter:  Pacers 8.  Have a 3 game cushion on the Heat but they are 11 and 0 at home.  Recent defense lapse has to be troubling to them.  They should lock it down tonight.  Pistons 7....surprisingly  There is zero way they are winning the Central but at 11-14 they are still in the thick of things to get the 3 or 4 seed in the playoffs!

Hawks under 204.5.  1 unit.  That total is high.  I guess Kobe is being factored in but I dont see it.  Expecting a result like when Washington and OKC visited Atlanta (200 and 193 totals).

Care-o-meter:  Hawks 7.  Similar situation to the Pistons  Lakers 7..because Kobe knows everyone is asking are they better or worse without him.

Nets +10.5  1 unit.  Nets line inflated due to Portland thrashing.  However, Portland shot the lights out from 3 pt land and the Nets average almost 4 less 3 point attempts less than the NBA average of 21.  Thats about 20% less.  Add in the go go go 76ers offense and keeping it under double digits is probable.

Care-o-meter: Nets 6.  At 5-5 over their last 10, play like that in the East is scorching hot!  76ers 3.  They play fast but ultimately after losing MCW has led to a free fall in the standings.

Knicks over 190.5  1 unit.  Knicks games average 197 at home and the Wizards are no slouch on the road at 193 a game.  Just a matter of trying at this point.

Care-o-meter:  Knicks 5.  That loss at home versus Boston had to be the bottom.  Wizards: 4 Last seed in the playoffs, hanging around until Beal gets back... 

Clippers +3  Spurs an exceptional 10-2 ATS on the road.  They dont let up.  Clips home after 7 games on the road.  One other covers member (sorry forget who) mentioned that teams after a long road trip stumble their first game back home due to distractions, taking care of biz at home, etc.  The Spurs are not a team to sleep on.  HOWEVER, based on the care-o-meter, this is an early need to win game.  1 unit.  

Care-o-meter: Spurs 9.  Spurs thought this was going to be a two team race until the Blazers decided to show up and crash the party.  Can they keep the momentum?  Not sure but that 3 seed could end up playing the Rockets in the first round, so the pressure is on.  Clippers 9.  For the same reason, Clippers now have to be thinking here is a chance to gain a game on SA and get out of the Rockets playoff lottery.  If the Clippers lose this, they can start growing roots on that 4/5 seed...
 
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Posted: #193
Really hate to bet on Knicks in any sort of way. They are atrocious. Betting on a Knicks over is playing Russian roulette. Very dangerous because they go through periods of not scoring. Wash also. They haven't been lighting up as of late. Under is the play I think. Love the Spurs with Clips coming off 7 game roadie. Believe they come out flat and tired. Plus they tend to struggle shooting. Also struggle from charity stripe. See a Spurs rout. Could be wrong.
“You don’t get what you hope for, you get what you work for!”
 
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Posted: #194
PGA - fair enough on the Knicks.but it appears Beal will play tonight so hopefully less sluggish Wizards offense.  

Clippers - I know that first home game angle you mentioned before is compelling but they HAVE to get up for this game.  Before when it was OKC and Spurs, teams could say, well OK, we can at least get the 3 seed but Portland is saying (at least early) yeah, thats ones not available either this year.

If it was a lesser team, absolutely love your theory.  Here, I feel they've got to get up for it.  If they lose, they definitely are waaay down on the give a sh*t scale.
 
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Posted: #195
Todays post-mordem:

Pacers under   WTF is with these guys?  They looked almost unbeatalbe the first month of the season.  They will end up letting Miami back in this thing.  In hindsight: if the Pistons are getting an 8 on the care-o-meter, probably shouldnt have picked the under.

Hawks under Just off.

76ers Nets must have read my post because they shot 35 3s or twice their yearly average.

Knicks over  Beal made the difference and pushed the tempo getting the game winner at the end,

Clips   As predicted, they had to come out strong if they wanted to compete at the top of the rankings.

2-3 for -1.4 units on the night  Just trying to get through this nightmare swing...

Overall 94-91-3 for +1.2 units.

 
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Posted: #196
Hang in there I'm rooting for you!
 
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Posted: #197
good luck man , never give up
 
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Posted: #198
Mikey, rico - thanks!  Just tough when I came out the first month so strong, treaded water in the beginning of this month and now in freefall.

What kills me is if I hadnt upped my total # of plays and got greedy after my first month tear, this downswing probably wouldnt be as bad.

Still, gives faders a chance to make $.  Ha.

Lakers +3.  2 units.  I get the Lakers are on a back to back but even with Slowbe, Memphis will be without Mike Conley, the scoring constant keeping them in games.  I think their already atrocious home record gets worse.

Care-o-meter:  Lakers 7.  With Conley and Gasol out, the Lakers should know they can steal one here and at 11-13 they are still hovering in the playoff team mix.  Memphis 5  I think the basketball gods definitely cursed the Grizz for firing Lionel Hollins.  Hollinger is a great stats guy but until the game is played by robots, I think hes paying the price for his on paper moves with a healthy dose of karma.

Denver +3.  1 unit.  OKC and Denver played a close one in OKC already and they match up well, the home court should tip the balance.

Care-o-meter  OKC 7  Thunder might be looking ahead to their next game in San Antonio.  Denver 8.  At 14-9 Denver is at the bottom of the playoff ladder.  Every game counts when it looks like 56% wont get you in this year in the West.

Cleveland +5.  1 unit.  Portland will come out guns a blazing but surprisingly, the Cavs 3 point defense is better than the league average.  Also the Cagvs have been West Conf killers beating the Clips, Wolves, and Nuggets when they visited.  Couple that with the fact they are a tough out at home, its the Blazers last road game on this trip and the 5 points should be enough.

Care-o-meter:  Blazers 8  They know these are the games you're supposed to win if you're elite.  Cavs 7  They know they cant win on the road so the home games are where they've got the best chance to steal one.  Plus 3-0 vs the West!  Probably only Eastern team that can say that!
 
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Posted: #199
Like all your leans. See them all winning straight up. BOL
“You don’t get what you hope for, you get what you work for!”
 
 
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Posted: #200
PGA - we'll see.  Thanks and GL!  
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