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NBA: Each Night - Every Game Analysis

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Posted: #1
Been ripping it up this NBA season. I don't bet every game but I want to start tracking my leans and top bets

Tonight if I were to bet everything based on ratings, starting lineups my card would be

Knicks +7.5, Orlando +3.5, Washington +7.5, Boston -2.5, Brooklyn +7.5, New Orleans -8, Denver +3.5, Utah +14.5, suns +2.5, thunder -6, clippers -2.5

Top bets would be Knicks +7.5 and Orlando +3.5

Sorry for late post
 
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Posted: #2
Oh sh!t. Good to see you post gekko
It's all probabilities
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by SPark1:

Oh sh!t. Good to see you post gekko

I finally can run my own business now that I quit my full time job! That mean's I can also get to my computer to go over Sports which has been a goal of mine. I hope to build a solid reputation on here enough to get people to wanting my information. Not to sell, but to really value my research and dedication put into these games. 

Of course we will have our trolls and the negative vibes, but as long as the main people stay together and focused, we got this!!

So last night, the NBA was alive with 11 games. Based on my current numbers strategy, I had value in these lines. **Remember I don't play every game, I analyze every game and then TOP PICKS will be my main plays for $$ purposes. 

The point is to start having majority of the picks right by really knowing this league, the lineups, the situations, and watching every single game.

Wednesday: 1/6/2016 --- ANALYSIS PICKS
Knicks +7.5     W
Orlando +3.5   L  (was covering with 42 secs left )
Washington +7.5   W
Boston -2.5   L  (blew it in the 4th)
Brooklyn +7.5   L  (Which team will show up, Tor decided to play defense again)
New Orleans -8   L  (all the starters on the bench and mavs win! Did not see that coming)
Denver +3.5  W
Utah +14.5  L  (spurs rested duncan,parker - this is usually when a big favorite gets back doored, not last night)
Suns +2.5  W
Thunder -6  W
Clippers -2.5 W

Overall Analysis Picks: 6-5
Overall TOP Picks: 1-1

Learning from each loss and keeping track of the losses with certain teams in certain spots has helped me pick winners this year. My TOP Picks number is hopefully going to be around 60% which technically would mean I could be pro (if you bet same value of units on every bet and very strict) - I do well so I play parlays, teasers, as well as making money from big straight bets so money management is not something I honestly follow) 
 
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Posted: #4
good luck on the season 
 
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Posted: #5
Thursday: 1/7/2016 ----- ANALYSIS PICKS

Atlanta Hawks -8.5 
The 76ers are actually the hotter team coming into this one but for a Hawks team that's looking to get back on track, I'll go with the team with the most raw talent. Current numbers project about 8-9 point Atlanta win. I would buy it to the 8.5 number to be safe if it moves on you. 

Chicago Bulls -4.5
Get this line before it get's to 5.5 or 6 which is right about where the game should be listed at. Simply said, The Boston Celtic's cannot close out a game if their lives depended on it. Free Throws & a better managed game gets Chicago to cover the spread!

More to come as the lines are off for Houston/Jazz for me..
 
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Posted: #6
Thursday: 1/7/2016 

ANALYSIS PICKS

Atlanta Hawks -8.5 
The 76ers are actually the hotter team coming into this one but for a Hawks team that's looking to get back on track, I'll go with the team with the most raw talent. Current numbers project about 8-9 point Atlanta win. I would buy it to the 8.5 number to be safe if it moves on you. 

Chicago Bulls -4.5
Get this line before it get's to 5.5 or 6 which is right about where the game should be listed at. Simply said, The Boston Celtic's cannot close out a game if their lives depended on it. Free Throws & a better managed game gets Chicago to cover the spread!

Utah Jazz +7.5
Dwight Howard is a game time decision. These 2 just played each other in Utah and it was a 2 point game. Utah is playing a B2B but I think this is way too many points. This should be a spread of -5. Edge: Jazz!

Sacramento Kings -7.5
The Kings are playing great basketball. Although my numbers have this more as a 5-6 point win, the recent play of the Kings has them playing motivated basketball. Let's go with the favorite who is playing better basketball, at home, to cover. Go Kings!

Top Picks:

Chicago Bulls -4.5 

Overall Analysis Picks: 6-5
Top Picks: 1-1
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by KnightofSorrow:

good luck on the season 


Thanks! Best time to hop in is now right before All Star Break. Finally got some games under our belt!

Good Luck Tonight!!

 
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Posted: #8
Ladies & Gentleman.... Get Set...... Goooo!!!!!


 
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Posted: #9
Good luck gekko. Bulls game is the only one worth wagering today. Every other game is crap.
It's all probabilities
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by WSTgekko:

Thursday: 1/7/2016 

ANALYSIS PICKS

Atlanta Hawks -8.5  W
The 76ers are actually the hotter team coming into this one but for a Hawks team that's looking to get back on track, I'll go with the team with the most raw talent. Current numbers project about 8-9 point Atlanta win. I would buy it to the 8.5 number to be safe if it moves on you. 

Chicago Bulls -4.5   W
Get this line before it get's to 5.5 or 6 which is right about where the game should be listed at. Simply said, The Boston Celtic's cannot close out a game if their lives depended on it. Free Throws & a better managed game gets Chicago to cover the spread!

Utah Jazz +7.5   L
Dwight Howard is a game time decision. These 2 just played each other in Utah and it was a 2 point game. Utah is playing a B2B but I think this is way too many points. This should be a spread of -5. Edge: Jazz!

Sacramento Kings -7.5  L
The Kings are playing great basketball. Although my numbers have this more as a 5-6 point win, the recent play of the Kings has them playing motivated basketball. Let's go with the favorite who is playing better basketball, at home, to cover. Go Kings!

Top Picks:

Chicago Bulls -4.5  

Overall Analysis Picks: 6-5
Top Picks: 1-1

The Utah Jazz were covering all game and then missed 5 shots in a row with less than 1:30 left, and fouled Houston after each possession which led to 10 free throws late. Every loss is a learning experience, on the road, even with a shorthanded Houston team, the Utah Jazz failed to come up in the big spot.

The other loss of the analysis picks were the Sacramento Kings. They dominated the 1st Half by 21 points and decided to give some rest to the starters as they logged 24-35 min each. I did state before that I had the Lakers only losing by 5-6 but I just didn't trust the Lakers, on the road, in this spot. This is how we learn though!

The TOP PICKS are the only plays I advise to put wages on once again. The analysis picks are going to help me get better reads on teams. This is a fun and exciting journey, especially when we make money! 
 
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Posted: #11
Friday - January 8th, 2016 (10 games)

Analysis Picks 

Toronto Raptors ML (-130)
My numbers have the Raptors winning at about 2 points which is right where the line stands, Raptors rating of recent play is around 92.17 and Washington w/home court advantage at 91. The key to this game will be Toronto's Defense which ranks 4th in the league. They showed they can come out back to back games and play great D. Now, I'll be on their side. Don't screw me Toronto!

Brooklyn +5.5
If Elfrid Payton plays, the Orlando Magic will cover. As of now, he's not,  so I would have to lean with Brooklyn and the points as my numbers cap the Magic when fully healthy at a 3 point win. 

Memphis Grizzlies -5
My numbers predict a 8pt win here. Conley is a game time decision but Chalmers should fill in just fine if Conley can't lace them up!

Cleveland -9.5 ***TOP  PICK***
Where will Minnesota find the points tonight? This is an easy 12+ point win! Cleveland doesn't cover if they decide to rest Lebron/Irving whole 4th quarter!

Indiana Pacers ML (-130) ***TOP PICK***
Simply put, the Pelicans are playing horrible basketball as the Pacers look to stay focused on their lock down D. Team moral is very low in New Orleans right now. 

Dallas Mavericks +1 ***TOP PICK***
Am I high??? What don't we know that Vegas does??? The Mavericks have fresh legs in 4/5 starters. Playing much better basketball. What the hell, this is FREE MONEY!!?!?!

New York Knicks +14.5
Way too many points to me giving my favorite basketball team! Knicks have been playing well lately and Parker will most likely be sitting this one out. Even w/Parker, Spurs win by less than 10 points.

Miami Heat -3.5  ***TOP PICK***
Miami should easily win tonight by 6+ points. Phoenix is in a very bad funk, the type of funk where players get traded and coaches get fired. Heat torch the Suns!

Portland Trailblazers +10
If Curry starts, I like the Warriors covering. If he sits, 10 points is too many for Portland at home IMO.

OKC Thunder -13.5  ***TOP PICK***
Lakers playing on a B2B, lost by 40 and 35 points already to OKC that is fresh off a 20+ point win over Memphis. Lakers can't keep it close.

 TOP PICKS TONIGHT 

DALLAS +1 
MIAMI -3.5 
CLEVELAND -9.5
OKC -13.5

YTD Analysis Picks: 8-7
YTD Top Picks: 2-1

 
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Friday - January 8th, 2016 (10 games)

Analysis Picks 

Toronto Raptors ML (-130)
My numbers have the Raptors winning at about 2 points which is right where the line stands, Raptors rating of recent play is around 92.17 and Washington w/home court advantage at 91. The key to this game will be Toronto's Defense which ranks 4th in the league. They showed they can come out back to back games and play great D. Now, I'll be on their side. Don't screw me Toronto!

Brooklyn +5.5
If Elfrid Payton plays, the Orlando Magic will cover. As of now, he's not,  so I would have to lean with Brooklyn and the points as my numbers cap the Magic when fully healthy at a 3 point win. 

Memphis Grizzlies -5
My numbers predict a 8pt win here. Conley is a game time decision but Chalmers should fill in just fine if Conley can't lace them up!

Cleveland -9.5 ***TOP  PICK***
Where will Minnesota find the points tonight? This is an easy 12+ point win! Cleveland doesn't cover if they decide to rest Lebron/Irving whole 4th quarter!

Indiana Pacers ML (-130) ***TOP PICK***
Simply put, the Pelicans are playing horrible basketball as the Pacers look to stay focused on their lock down D. Team moral is very low in New Orleans right now. 

Dallas Mavericks +1 ***TOP PICK***
Am I high??? What don't we know that Vegas does??? The Mavericks have fresh legs in 4/5 starters. Playing much better basketball. What the hell, this is FREE MONEY!!?!?!

New York Knicks +14.5
Way too many points to me giving my favorite basketball team! Knicks have been playing well lately and Parker will most likely be sitting this one out. Even w/Parker, Spurs win by less than 10 points.

Miami Heat -3.5  ***TOP PICK***
Miami should easily win tonight by 6+ points. Phoenix is in a very bad funk, the type of funk where players get traded and coaches get fired. Heat torch the Suns!

Portland Trailblazers +10
If Curry starts, I like the Warriors covering. If he sits, 10 points is too many for Portland at home IMO.

OKC Thunder -13.5  ***TOP PICK***
Lakers playing on a B2B, lost by 40 and 35 points already to OKC that is fresh off a 20+ point win over Memphis. Lakers can't keep it close.

 TOP PICKS TONIGHT 

DALLAS +1   
MIAMI -3.5 
CLEVELAND -9.5
OKC -13.5
PACERS ML

YTD Analysis Picks: 8-7
YTD Top Picks: 2-1 


 
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Posted: #13
Gekko,

Love the quality of work you put in with these picks and analysis man!  Keep it up!  Good job and good luck!
 
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Posted: #14
Friday - January 8th, 2016 (10 games)

Analysis Picks 

Toronto Raptors ML (-130)
My numbers have the Raptors winning at about 2 points which is right where the line stands, Raptors rating of recent play is around 92.17 and Washington w/home court advantage at 91. The key to this game will be Toronto's Defense which ranks 4th in the league. 

Brooklyn +5.5
If Elfrid Payton plays, the Orlando Magic will cover. As of now, he's not,  so I would have to lean with Brooklyn and the points as my numbers cap the Magic when fully healthy at a 3 point win. 

Memphis Grizzlies -5
My numbers predict a 8pt win here. Conley is a game time decision but Chalmers should fill in just fine if Conley can't lace them up!

Cleveland -9.5 ***TOP  PICK***
Where will Minnesota find the points tonight? This is an easy 12+ point win! Cleveland doesn't cover if they decide to rest Lebron/Irving whole 4th quarter!

Indiana Pacers ML (-130) ***TOP PICK***
Simply put, the Pelicans are playing horrible basketball as the Pacers look to stay focused on their lock down D. Team moral is very low in New Orleans right now. 

Dallas Mavericks +1 ***TOP PICK***
Am I high??? What don't we know that Vegas does??? The Mavericks have fresh legs in 4/5 starters. Playing much better basketball. What the hell, this is FREE MONEY!!?!?!

New York Knicks +14.5
Way too many points to me giving my favorite basketball team! Knicks have been playing well lately and Parker will most likely be sitting this one out. Even w/Parker, Spurs win by less than 10 points.

Miami Heat -3.5  ***TOP PICK***
Miami should easily win tonight by 6+ points. Phoenix is in a very bad funk, the type of funk where players get traded and coaches get fired. Heat torch the Suns!

Golden State Warriors -9.5
Curry is starting, like the Warriors to win by 10+ pts!

OKC Thunder -13.5  ***TOP PICK***
Lakers playing on a B2B, lost by 40 and 35 points already to OKC that is fresh off a 20+ point win over Memphis. Lakers can't keep it close.

 TOP PICKS TONIGHT 

DALLAS +1   
MIAMI -3.5 
CLEVELAND -9.5
OKC -13.5
PACERS ML

YTD Analysis Picks: 8-7
YTD Top Picks: 2-1 
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Walter_Adams:

Gekko,

Love the quality of work you put in with these picks and analysis man!  Keep it up!  Good job and good luck!

Thanks buddy! The goal is to get our TOP PICKS number at 60% or better. Also, over time, it would be great if the Analysis Picks can match that as well. I feel that I have a tremendous grip on the NBA. Just have to learn from the losses and remember what teams did what in different situations.
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by SPark1:

Good luck gekko. Bulls game is the only one worth wagering today. Every other game is crap.

Yes, you were right. Well, we both were as that was the only worthy game of a wage. Very big card tonight, more than I usually do but when the numbers work out, gotta whack it!

 
 
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by WSTgekko:

 Friday - January 8th, 2016 (10 games)

Analysis Picks 

Toronto Raptors ML (-130)   Winner
My numbers have the Raptors winning at about 2 points which is right where the line stands, Raptors rating of recent play is around 92.17 and Washington w/home court advantage at 91. The key to this game will be Toronto's Defense which ranks 4th in the league. 

Brooklyn +5.5  Loser by .5pt - Typical!
If Elfrid Payton plays, the Orlando Magic will cover. As of now, he's not,  so I would have to lean with Brooklyn and the points as my numbers cap the Magic when fully healthy at a 3 point win. 

Memphis Grizzlies -5  Winner
My numbers predict a 8pt win here. Conley is a game time decision but Chalmers should fill in just fine if Conley can't lace them up!

Cleveland -9.5 ***TOP  PICK***  Winner
Where will Minnesota find the points tonight? This is an easy 12+ point win! Cleveland doesn't cover if they decide to rest Lebron/Irving whole 4th quarter!

Indiana Pacers ML (-130) ***TOP PICK*** Winner
Simply put, the Pelicans are playing horrible basketball as the Pacers look to stay focused on their lock down D. Team moral is very low in New Orleans right now. 

Dallas Mavericks +1 ***TOP PICK*** PUSH
Am I high??? What don't we know that Vegas does??? The Mavericks have fresh legs in 4/5 starters. Playing much better basketball. What the hell, this is FREE MONEY!!?!?!

New York Knicks +14.5  Winner
Way too many points to me giving my favorite basketball team! Knicks have been playing well lately and Parker will most likely be sitting this one out. Even w/Parker, Spurs win by less than 10 points.

Miami Heat -3.5  ***TOP PICK***  Winner
Miami should easily win tonight by 6+ points. Phoenix is in a very bad funk, the type of funk where players get traded and coaches get fired. Heat torch the Suns!

Golden State Warriors -9.5  Winner
Curry is starting, like the Warriors to win by 10+ pts!

OKC Thunder -13.5  ***TOP PICK***  Loser
Lakers playing on a B2B, lost by 40 and 35 points already to OKC that is fresh off a 20+ point win over Memphis. Lakers can't keep it close.

 TOP PICKS TONIGHT 

DALLAS +1....   PUSH
MIAMI -3.5.... WINNER 
CLEVELAND -9.5... WINNER
OKC -13.5... LOSER
PACERS ML.. WINNER

YTD Analysis Picks: 12-8
YTD Top Picks: 5-2-1 


 
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Posted: #18

Pushing with Dallas was a blessing considering they sucked all game long. Brooklyn missed covering by half a point which isn't surprising. In the analysis, we knew Brooklyn is a bad team that can definitely play below their average on any given night which makes them not cover spreads!

I really liked the Knicks last night, but since they were my favorite team, I would hate to see any of you guys lose based on my emotions with them as a team but I knew numbers were way off! 

Overall a successful night, which will lead into a successful weekend! Time to analyze, write up to come later on!

Overall Last Night: 7-2-1
 
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Posted: #19
YTD Analysis Picks: 12-8
YTD Top Picks: 5-2-1 

Saturday - 1/9/2016 (8 Games)

Evening games will be capped later.

Analysis Picks

LA Clippers -6  ***TOP PICK***
The Clippers haven't lost since Blake Griffin went down with an injury and are actually playing above average basketball. I have this as a 8-10 point win. Let's Go Clips!

Chicago Bulls +2.5
Bulls are playing above their average and the Hawks seem to come and go when showing up each night. I will take the points here!

More to come later.. Good Luck


 
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YTD Analysis Picks: 12-8
YTD Top Picks: 5-2-1 

Saturday - 1/9/2016 (8 Games)

Analysis Picks

LA Clippers -6  ***Top Pick***
The Clippers haven't lost since Blake Griffin went down with an injury and are actually playing above average basketball. I have this as a 8-10 point win. Let's Go Clips!

Chicago Bulls +2.5
Bulls are playing above their average and the Hawks seem to come and go when showing up each night. I will take the points here!

Orlando Magic ML (-150)
Both teams are playing on a B2B, but Washington is on a B2B and on the road. It would be nice to see Elfrid Payton play tonight, but he has been confirmed OUT. Either way my numbers have Orlando winning by 2-3 that's why I'll be going Money Line. 

Detroit Pistons -9.5  ***Top Pick***
My numbers have Pistons winning by 10-12 points tonight. But, Brooklyn is in shambles right now. Playing B2B on the road won't do them any good tonight. 

Toronto Raptors -8  *** Top Pick***
The Raptors have one of the best Defenses in the league. When they clamp down, they can shut down the best offenses, not to mention the junior varsity 76ers. Raptors cover!

Miami Heat ML (-120)  ***Top Pick***
Miami is B2B on the road, but playing a very bad Utah Jazz team who is unhealthy at the moment. Miami won't let an easy W get away.


Golden State Warriors -7  ***Top Pick***
Golden State runs wild on a BAD Sacramento Defense. Both teams like to run, I can see Golden State scoring 110+ tonight.

Good Luck as always ladies and gents! Have NFL Playoffs to watch as well tonight but will be watching all NBA games as well. Going with the big favorites tonight but I like the matchups. 
 
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Posted: #21
YTD Analysis Picks: 15-9-1
YTD Top Picks: 5-2-1 

Updated Totals!
 
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Posted: #22
YTD Analysis Picks: 16-9-1
YTD Top Picks: 6-2-1 

Saturday - 1/9/2016 (8 Games)

Analysis Picks

LA Clippers -6  ***Top Pick***   Winner
The Clippers haven't lost since Blake Griffin went down with an injury and are actually playing above average basketball. I have this as a 8-10 point win. Let's Go Clips!

Chicago Bulls +2.5
Bulls are playing above their average and the Hawks seem to come and go when showing up each night. I will take the points here!

Orlando Magic ML (-150)
Both teams are playing on a B2B, but Washington is on a B2B and on the road. It would be nice to see Elfrid Payton play tonight, but he has been confirmed OUT. Either way my numbers have Orlando winning by 2-3 that's why I'll be going Money Line. 

Detroit Pistons -9.5  ***Top Pick***
My numbers have Pistons winning by 10-12 points tonight. But, Brooklyn is in shambles right now. Playing B2B on the road won't do them any good tonight. 

Toronto Raptors -8  *** Top Pick***
The Raptors have one of the best Defenses in the league. When they clamp down, they can shut down the best offenses, not to mention the junior varsity 76ers. Raptors cover!

Miami Heat ML (-120)  ***Top Pick***
Miami is B2B on the road, but playing a very bad Utah Jazz team who is unhealthy at the moment. Miami won't let an easy W get away.


Golden State Warriors -7  ***Top Pick***
Golden State runs wild on a BAD Sacramento Defense. Both teams like to run, I can see Golden State scoring 110+ tonight.

Good Luck as always ladies and gents! Have NFL Playoffs to watch as well tonight but will be watching all NBA games as well. Going with the big favorites tonight but I like the matchups. 
 
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Posted: #23
GL!!! looking good
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by seanfoster07:

GL!!! looking good

Yup, the top picks, which I put $$ on are looking good so far! Thanks for the positive vibes

 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by WSTgekko:

YTD Analysis Picks: 16-9-1
YTD Top Picks: 6-2-1 

Saturday - 1/9/2016 (8 Games)

Analysis Picks

LA Clippers -6  ***Top Pick***   Winner
The Clippers haven't lost since Blake Griffin went down with an injury and are actually playing above average basketball. I have this as a 8-10 point win. Let's Go Clips!

Chicago Bulls +2.5  Loser
Bulls are playing above their average and the Hawks seem to come and go when showing up each night. I will take the points here!

Orlando Magic ML (-150)   Loser
Both teams are playing on a B2B, but Washington is on a B2B and on the road. It would be nice to see Elfrid Payton play tonight, but he has been confirmed OUT. Either way my numbers have Orlando winning by 2-3 that's why I'll be going Money Line. 

Detroit Pistons -9.5  ***Top Pick***  Winner 
My numbers have Pistons winning by 10-12 points tonight. But, Brooklyn is in shambles right now. Playing B2B on the road won't do them any good tonight. 

Toronto Raptors -8  *** Top Pick***  Winner 
The Raptors have one of the best Defenses in the league. When they clamp down, they can shut down the best offenses, not to mention the junior varsity 76ers. Raptors cover!

Miami Heat ML (-120)  ***Top Pick*** 
Miami is B2B on the road, but playing a very bad Utah Jazz team who is unhealthy at the moment. Miami won't let an easy W get away.


Golden State Warriors -7  ***Top Pick***
Golden State runs wild on a BAD Sacramento Defense. Both teams like to run, I can see Golden State scoring 110+ tonight.

Good Luck as always ladies and gents! Have NFL Playoffs to watch as well tonight but will be watching all NBA games as well. Going with the big favorites tonight but I like the matchups. 

Updated totals for the night... Top Picks which are wages are where I said at 60% or better!!

YTD Analysis Picks: 18-11-1
YTD Top Picks: 8-2-1 (73%)

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