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#1
Hey everybody, new to the site but I've just started handicapping NBA games. I created a spreadsheet using team stats from every NBA team from sports-reference.com.
In short, here's what I do (using 1/1 IND @ TOR as example):
1. Average the 2 teams' paces (Both 92.8)
2. Using each team's turnover % and opponents' turnover percentage to predict the number of turnovers for each team.
(Pacers turn ball over 14.7% of possessions and Raptors force turnovers 15.2% of possessions, so over 92.8 possessions, Pacers will turn it over 13.9 times, do same thing for Raptors)
3. Subtract turnovers from number of possessions.
(Now, the Pacers are projected 78.9 FG while the Raptors are projected 79.9)
4. Using each team's offensive rebound % and opponent's offensive rebound %, calculate the offensive rebound difference.
(Pacers grab offensive rebound on 24% of missed field goals, while Raptors opponents grab offensive rebounds on 24.8% of missed field goals, doing the same thing with Raptors, the Raptors will grab 1.2 more offensive rebounds than the Pacers, add this number to the Raptors projected FGA. Now, the Pacers are projected 78.9 FGA and the Raptors are projected 81.3)
5. Next, multiply each teams projected FGA by the percentage of 2 point shots and 3 point shots each team shoots. (The Pacers will attempt 58.7 2 point shots and 20.2 3 point shots, do same thing for Raptors)
6. Calculate the projected 2pt FG% and 3pt FG% for each team using each team's FG%'s and opponent's FG%'s (Pacers shoot 49.2% on 2 pointers and Raptors opponents shoot 48% on 2 pointers, so Pacers should shoot 48.6%, doing same thing: Raptors will shoot 45% on 2pointers. Do the same for 3 pointers)
7. Multiply the percentages by the projected shot attempts at each spot calculated in step 5. (Pacers projected shoot 48.6% on 2's and are projected to shoot 58.7 2 point shots, so they will make 28.5 2 point shots x 2 = 57.1 points from 2's. Do same thing for 3 pointers. This projects the Pacers to score 79.4 points combined on 2's and 3's and the Raptors to score 75.3)
8. Determine the number of free throws each team will make. (The Pacers score .233 Free Throws made per FGA and the Raptors opponents make .207 free throws per FGA, taking the average of these and multiplying by FG attempts, the Pacers should make 17.3 free throws.
9. Add up each team's points from 2's, points from 3's and points from free throws.
In the example, on a neutral court the Pacers should win: 96.77 to 92.68.
10. Home court. Use a 3 point advantage for home court, so add 1.5 points to home team and subtract 1.5 from road team (to keep total the same)
Final Projection:
Pacers 95.28
Raptors 94.18
Total 189.49
So the play is Raptors +5.5, Under 190 (though I wouldn't make a play on the O/U here).
I will be tracking the picks in this thread, any comments/suggestions are appreciated. I have not used this at all yet, so I can't recommended tailing these at least until I test them out some more, but I'll tinker with these and try to give picks for as many games as possible.
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(also put a small ML bet on the Raptors due to ~+200 odds and only having Pacers as 1 point favorites)
More power ! Will check in later for your pick tomorrow Good job !
All I can say is wow! amazing work jbrizz! I like the system very much hope you keep posting picks! great work! GL
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