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NBA is impossible to bet.

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Prospect
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Posted: #26
It's the same story every year. You win some then you LOSE MORE. 
 
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Posted: #27
The NBA is very tough in general but especially this year.  You have a lot of evenly/crappy teams and it's difficult too guess who will win straight up nevermind cover a spread.  Aside from Goldenstate and maybe the Spurs, who can you even count on to win the moneyline most nights against average or poor teams?  In the past you could count on a lot more like the Lakers, Portland at home, Spurs as usual, Rockets with tmac and Yao, Celtics, the list goes on.

Also, even if you think you have a read on a game it's damn near impossible to guess the effort level of these guys because certain nights they just don't care or they're saving their energy or who knows what goes on in the minds of these overpaid goofs lol.

I've been having some luck doing live betting. NBA is a game of runs.  Most games you'll see a team go up by 6,7 10 or even 15 points only to lose.  Live betting is where it's at for the NBA.  Either wait for a favorite to be down during the game (did this with Cavs against Philly when Cavs were down double digits and they came back and won) or try to just bet the underdog on the moneyline or spread before game time and often during the game if they take an early, maybe even somewhat decent lead, you can bet the favorite.  I can't remember how many times I've had team A +6.5 and team B + 6.5 or whatever.  You know what I mean.  There's just so many runs during an NBA game.  Of course, like every other 'strategy'' this backfires too.

Man, I've rambled on.

I should be concise.  

NBA is tough to bet on.  I agree.  But for those of us that just have to have action every night, we'll find a way to make some money or at least break even.  I'm sticking to live betting and maybe a few select ''reliable'' and in good spots favorites to parlay on the moneyline on a nightly basis.

In any case, good luck to everybody and don't chase.
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by DRIBBLE4LIFE:


You are truly full of shyt, sir. Dead wrong when u say NBA is easiest to bet on. Once you wrote that, it became hard for me to take you seriously. Why try to degrade others and thump your chest regrading your "stellar" record ?

Post your plays. 

Don't dignify that clown with a response.  We all know he's full of it.  Idiots like him are just attention seeking.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by wop:


Yea these dogs are winning outright so much. Then I see Bucks getting around 4 last night in Washington thinking they might win with a small line but no they get smashed. I don't even think Vegas knows NBA this year with these lines and totals way off. 

The lines are not way off.  The lines aren't trying to predict the outcome of the events.  The lines are trying to maximize profit for the book.

If the book was almost positive the Wiz will beat the Bucks by 15+ points, they don't set the line at 15.  They set it at a lower number where they still get some balanced action but ithey win more with the Wiz.  Or if they don't want to gamble they can set the line to get balanced action and guarantee themselves the vig as profit.

The only bad lines for the books are the ones that move a ton of points and still wind up winning.





 
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Posted: #30
NBA is impossible to bet for me, especially the last few years because:

A)  So many good players sit out for rest.  How do toy handicap this? Not only do you need to know who is sitting out, but you ned to guess the impact on the game.

B) So many talented offensive players and so many poor defensive players.  If one guy gets hot he can carry a team.  This is also impossible to handicap.

C)  More player "mutinies".  The players know they have a lot of power and influence.  Players have always undermined hteir coaches, but before it was not nearly as effective.  When the coach makes 2 mil and the players 90 mil, it is much easier to replace a coach.

D)  Teams clearly circle some games where they gameplan and try a lot harder.  If you don't have inside info, it makes it tough.

E)  Free Agency - you can't assign a number to each player and it together to get a power rating for the team like other sports.  A team needs chemistry, and it takes 3 or 4 years to buil;d it a lot of times.  Teams today stay together 1 or 2 seasons at most.  It is easier to handicap a team when the roster doesn't change much.


 
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:

NBA is impossible to bet for me, especially the last few years because:

A)  So many good players sit out for rest.  How do toy handicap this? Not only do you need to know who is sitting out, but you ned to guess the impact on the game.

B) So many talented offensive players and so many poor defensive players.  If one guy gets hot he can carry a team.  This is also impossible to handicap.

C)  More player "mutinies".  The players know they have a lot of power and influence.  Players have always undermined hteir coaches, but before it was not nearly as effective.  When the coach makes 2 mil and the players 90 mil, it is much easier to replace a coach.

D)  Teams clearly circle some games where they gameplan and try a lot harder.  If you don't have inside info, it makes it tough.

E)  Free Agency - you can't assign a number to each player and it together to get a power rating for the team like other sports.  A team needs chemistry, and it takes 3 or 4 years to buil;d it a lot of times.  Teams today stay together 1 or 2 seasons at most.  It is easier to handicap a team when the roster doesn't change much.





great post,dude......i dont have any tracking or facts and figures but its astonishing nowadays the number of late scratches there are for players with phantom injuries/illness/personal issues or simply rest....seems to happen way,way,way more than it did even going back 5 years or so.....puts a huge spanner in the works of a bet when 2 starters pull out.and not everyones schedule allows them to wait till 4 minutes before tipoff to make a bet.
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