Posted:
#101
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
BERMAX,
Just read this thread from top to bottom. Covers needs more stat/model greeks like you on this forum. From what I took from your opening post...you are completely unbiased and aren't familiar with the NBA. And IMO that is a good thing. If you eventually hammer down your system to get to a 55-60% succes rate you will be in plus money as long as you stick to your guns and don't let bias or "hunches" effect your wagers.
With that being said, here are a couple things that may help your system.
Turn over margin is important IMO. If team A has a -.5 t.o.m. and team B has a +2.5 t.o.m. that's theoretically 3 extra possessions for team B. Which is a possible 6 to 9 more points if team B were to score on those 3 extra possessions. From there you could calculate team B's shooting percentage/adj offense vs team A's adj defense and get a "ball park" # of the "probable" extra points off of turnovers for team B.
Another good stat to look at is SOS. How you would incorporate that into your system is up to you and if it fits into your system.
Personally, I always liked the theory that shooting% and offense is never guaranteed. A team can be off shooting the ball for many reasons, and visa versa(sometimes they just shoot really well) 2 things that are a constant are REBOUNDING and DEFENSE. I myself take into account rebounding always.
Good luck w/ your system.
**love the Boston/Charlotte #'s you posted. I locked into Boston +4 last night, and just hit the ML**
BERMAX,
Just read this thread from top to bottom. Covers needs more stat/model greeks like you on this forum. From what I took from your opening post...you are completely unbiased and aren't familiar with the NBA. And IMO that is a good thing. If you eventually hammer down your system to get to a 55-60% succes rate you will be in plus money as long as you stick to your guns and don't let bias or "hunches" effect your wagers.
With that being said, here are a couple things that may help your system.
Turn over margin is important IMO. If team A has a -.5 t.o.m. and team B has a +2.5 t.o.m. that's theoretically 3 extra possessions for team B. Which is a possible 6 to 9 more points if team B were to score on those 3 extra possessions. From there you could calculate team B's shooting percentage/adj offense vs team A's adj defense and get a "ball park" # of the "probable" extra points off of turnovers for team B.
Another good stat to look at is SOS. How you would incorporate that into your system is up to you and if it fits into your system.
Personally, I always liked the theory that shooting% and offense is never guaranteed. A team can be off shooting the ball for many reasons, and visa versa(sometimes they just shoot really well) 2 things that are a constant are REBOUNDING and DEFENSE. I myself take into account rebounding always.
Good luck w/ your system.
**love the Boston/Charlotte #'s you posted. I locked into Boston +4 last night, and just hit the ML**
Thanks for input and encouraging words!
Just a general thought after reading your post. Since I'm using the averages over time of the variables ortg and drtg, which essentialy are pace adjusted points scored/allowed, isn't it a logical fallacy to try to adjust those numbers with an intermediary variable like turnover marigin? Points scored allowed is a hard endpoint of all "intermediary" stats: shooting %age/ turnover margin / rebounding - those differences in the end boil down to how many points each team allows/makes, which is already in the raw data. Your 6-9 extra points in the example are already translated into the final scores which are the basis for analysis. Or am I making a mistake here?
And in reply to the claw what I think is important is nailing the points scored allowed (ortg/drtg *pace), since that what goes into spread/totals betting. Winning %ages are of less importance in that regard and I have no way of calculating them. Interesting imput never the less.
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Bermax
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