Posted:
#1
Yesterday: 4-0, +6.01 units
YTD: 21-16-1, +4.29 units
1. Boston Celtics +7 (-102), 3.06 to win 3 -- Seriously? Boston is catching seven points here? That's flat out ridiculous. This line should be +2, maybe +3 at best. No way that Miami, at this stage, should be laying more than two possessions to a Boston team that stomped them earlier this year. Miami coming off a real deflating loss to Utah, which now makes the third game of the year that they have lost to a team with a top 5 point guard (probably not a coincidence). Boston also off a loss, they should be very motivated to come out and win after 2 days of rest. I think Boston was probably looking ahead to this game a tad when they lost to Dallas. I just don't see how anything has really changed for these teams since they played at the beginning of the year. Boston is still a well-oiled machine when they want to play hard (which I'm sure they will do after 2 days of rest as well as again being in the national spotlight.) For trend bettors:
That 39-19 ATS by Boston when they are a dog from 5-10.5 points tells me that Boston really gets up to play power teams (i.e., the only situations where they will be a dog of 5-10.5 points). They always play down to their level of competition but, consequently, play up when they play the big boys. I still don't know if Miami has the will and teamwork to win a close game late when it starts to get tight and teams start to play tough defense. Look at Miami so far -- they either win in blowout fashion or they lose. Any game they have been involved in this season that was decided by single digits has been a Miami loss. I'm not saying they don't get the win tonight, but I find it highly unlikely that they win this thing by more than a possession.
Good luck to everyone today
YTD: 21-16-1, +4.29 units
1. Boston Celtics +7 (-102), 3.06 to win 3 -- Seriously? Boston is catching seven points here? That's flat out ridiculous. This line should be +2, maybe +3 at best. No way that Miami, at this stage, should be laying more than two possessions to a Boston team that stomped them earlier this year. Miami coming off a real deflating loss to Utah, which now makes the third game of the year that they have lost to a team with a top 5 point guard (probably not a coincidence). Boston also off a loss, they should be very motivated to come out and win after 2 days of rest. I think Boston was probably looking ahead to this game a tad when they lost to Dallas. I just don't see how anything has really changed for these teams since they played at the beginning of the year. Boston is still a well-oiled machine when they want to play hard (which I'm sure they will do after 2 days of rest as well as again being in the national spotlight.) For trend bettors:
- Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
- Celtics are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.
- Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.
- Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Celtics are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5
- Heat are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. loss.
- Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Heat are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
That 39-19 ATS by Boston when they are a dog from 5-10.5 points tells me that Boston really gets up to play power teams (i.e., the only situations where they will be a dog of 5-10.5 points). They always play down to their level of competition but, consequently, play up when they play the big boys. I still don't know if Miami has the will and teamwork to win a close game late when it starts to get tight and teams start to play tough defense. Look at Miami so far -- they either win in blowout fashion or they lose. Any game they have been involved in this season that was decided by single digits has been a Miami loss. I'm not saying they don't get the win tonight, but I find it highly unlikely that they win this thing by more than a possession.
Good luck to everyone today
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