NBA PLAYOFF TIME .................................................2024

@theclaw

 Let’s go OKC!! 

@theclaw

 Okc and Cavs nice brother 

2-0, won 2 units

playoffs --- 13-7-1, won 8.75 units

OKC did not play very well but they were able to get the win. I'd look for them to be way better at home.

Celtics regress twice now in 3 games after a huge run of game.

MY LINES ......................................

Knicks  -4.73 over Pacers

Nuggets -2.15 over Twolves

Pacers 3-1 ATS in this series and off 2-0 ATS run with a big blowout 32 pt win. Bad spot for the Pacers. Tied 2-2 the key here is the team that wins this series likely wins game 5. Knicks only .73 better in PR I and only .37 better in PR II, Knicks not much better then Pacers, I give the Pacers a decent shot to win this series so I will pass on this game.

Nuggets off 2-0 ATS run and a big blowout 27 pt win followed by a SU win and ATS win, Not a good spot for Nuggets, but not the worst spot.  With both teams having the common denominators of champions these are 2 championship level teams where either team could win series. The key again with series tied 2-2 is the game 5 winner is very likely the team wins this series. Twolves better by 1.85 in PR I and .53 in PR II.  Although they are both very good teams, Twolves the better team and with my lines on the Twolves with points to work with the play is on the Twolves.

Twolves +4.5 over Nuggets --- 1.1 units

@theclaw

 Let’s go Twolves!! 

bummer, Joker incredible ..........................................

0-1, lost 1.1 units

Joker puts on a show, absolutely sensational. 40 pts, 13 assists, 7 rebs with 0 TO's. Only the 2cd time a player scored over 40 with over 10 assists I think also with no TO's but not sure if that was included, no center has ever done it.  No player has put up that stat line before or better.

Joker comes up huge when his team needs it. All-time historically great performance by this man. Player efficiency rating in playoffs 31.7, historically great. While Ant was over 29 drops to 25.7. Ant in regular season was 19.7, he is now coming back to earth. But 25.7 is still very strong just not historically great like MJ.

This brings up a very nice spot next game.

MY LINES ..........................................

Celtics -11.68 over Cavs

OKC -9.4 over Mavs

Celtics in a close-out game, we don't use my lines in close-out games. With a strong team VS a mediocre team expect the strong team to close it out on the 1st attempt. Celtics should win this game. Close-out games in game 4 or 5 are 3-2 ATS for the team needing a win to close out the series in round 1. Games 4 and 5 are not the best for playing ATS for team to close it out but it is not overly bad but I think there are better spots then this. Pass.

OKC   with series tied 2-2 the series winner wins game 5..... 82% of the time. Both PR's have OKC the better team, OKC has one of the best shooting efficiency margins in history playing at home and they are off a poor shooting performance. Shooting efficiency has the highest correlation to victory and the highest predictive value........ play is on OKC.

OKC -4 over Mavs --- 2.2 units

@theclaw

 Let’s go OKC

0-1, lost 2.2 units

playoffs --- 13-9-1, won 5.85 units

Boy oh boy, OK just can't get going. Now I'd have to think at this point Mavs win game 6 and the series. If OKC can survive game 6 I may take them game 7.

MY LINES ....................................

Twolves -5.85 over Nuggets

Nuggets off 3 ATS wins and very near a regression fade and Joker coming off an all-time great performance after 2 other strong games and with Twolves 0-2 SU & ATS at home this sure has the look of a peak for the Nuggets. Bad, bad spot for the Nuggets.  With both teams having the common denominators of champs these are the types of series go to 7 games. And with my lines clearly on the Wolves ................the play is on the Twolves.

Twolves -2 (-112) over Nuggets --- 2.2 units

@theclaw

 Hopefully Minny can regroup 

Off to a very y good start .................

1-0, won 2 units

 playoffs --- 14-9-1, won 7.45 units

correcting a mistake in units won.

after a 1-6 start, 13-3-1 since.

Yea baby, Twolves roll. Pretty obvious Nuggets didn't bother to show up, they expended so much energy, effort and focus to overcome a 0-2 deficit they had nothing left in the tank. Not sure that big blowout win will be good for the Twolves in game 7, the truly championship quality teams generally don't regress after 1 big win but 45 pt wins are pretty rare.

MY LINES ...................................................

Pacers -3.27 over Knicks 

These 2 teams off back-to-back 30 pt wins, 1 by Pacers (32) and 1 by Knicks (30), the 3 other games a 4, 5 and 9 pt win. I think we see a close game tonight. With 2 teams pretty evenly matched and neither having the common denominators of champs these are the type of series go to 7 games. With a -6 Pacers have room to win but not cover. With the Knicks injury maybe my line is no play but if the line were to rise after these two 30 pt wins, goes to 7 I'll most likely back the Knicks.  Pass for now.

Seeing some -5's out there and -5.5, doesn't  look like line going up.

MY LINES ...................................game 6

Iran the numbers in Mavs final 26 games after the trades. The new players played in 29 games but I gave them 3 games to adjust to the Mavs.

OKC -1.4 over Mavs ...........end of season

Mavs -2.51 ................using Mavs final 26 games only

PR I ..........................

OKC 7.21

Mavs 5.72

PR II ..............................

Mavs 52.55

OKC 52.34

both the Mavs shooting efficiency and rebounding improved, to the point they would have the common denominators of champions. But kind of minimal qualifying in both. I'm not sure if being minimal in both is a good thing or not, most teams are at least much better then minimal in one of the two with maybe one being minimal, that's ok.

And remember that is only over 26 games, may or may not be sustainable. But we should take that into consideration for sure.  At this point they look more like the final 26 game team.

Mavs in a close-out game. The spot favors Mavs if they are to win series, winning in game 6 at home is pretty common when the road team wins the series. OKC being in regression, this is a spot favors them. Teams in regression coming off their 3rd ATS loss over a short stretch of games, 4 here, are great spots to back them.

OKC has played poorly offensively the past 2 games, 25% on 3's and 25.9% on 3's which is understandable for a team in regression but now being in a spot that produces ATS wins for teams coming out of regression I'd look for OKC to shoot much better.

With the past 3 games all going under and by a pretty good amount as OKC scores 100 and 92 pts and the 92 pts being the fewest OKC scored this playoffs, looks like a peak to the bottom. And now the total Adjusted way down off game1 and game 3 the first game in Dallas.

I'll take those about 10 extra pts and back the over.

OKC/Mavs OVER 208.5 --- 1.1 units

pending futures ...........................

OKC to win series over Maves +110 --- 1 unit

Thunder were the better 3 point shooting team this year but have only outshot Dallas from 3 in the first game, which was a home blowout. Game 3 was even 33%. Mavs out shot them from 3 by a large margin in game 4 and still lost at home, surprisingly. If the 2 teams shot their averages from 3 OKC would be looking much better. They  are getting open looks and not hitting . Could be a young tram , first time in playoffs feeling the nerves or could just be an anomaly.

 If they shoot well from 3  they should win this game, that is if they rebound decently; another issue that seems to be down this series

Good luck with the Over, TC.

I've got OKC + 4 for one unit.  I lost one unit on NY yesterday, so tail at your own risk.

OKC shooting 41.7 % on 3's at the Half. Mavs like 38%, not bad but OKC with 24 attempts to like 13 for Mavs, 5 more makes for OKC

OKC getting it done at halftime.

112 pts scored, ahead of the over pace.

Good luck with OKC, 

OKC getting it done at the half.

112 pts on pace for over.

Hopefully we both hit.