NBA PLAYOFF TIME .....................2025......

POWER RATING I .............

1 OKC 10.64

2 Cavs 9

3 Celtics 7.64

4 Nuggets 5.07

5  LA 4.59 ..... in Luka games

6. Grizz 4.42 .... wow 8th seed 6th best ?.. crazy

7 Clippers 4.27...... full season rating ... Kawhi  played only 37 games .... Likely better then this rating

8. Twolves 4

9. Bucks 3.2

10. Knicks 2.92

11  Rockets 2.9

12  LA 2.34 ...... full season

12 Pacers 2.13

13. Pistons 2.08

14  Warriors 1.56 ...... full season ...i don't have ratings in Jimmy games only

15  Heat .26

16. Magic (-1.56)

MY LINES ...........game 1's

Celtics -13.5 over Magic

Knicks -4.84 over Pistons

Pacers - 1.93 over Bucks

Cavs -12.74 over Heat

OKC -10.22 over Grizz

Rockets -5.35 over Warriors

LA - 4.59 over Twolves 

Nuggets -4.8 over Clippers

Looks like the best play is on the Pistons.

I'll  pass but very likely play game 2 on Pistons if Knicks win SU & ATS.

Pistons should cover 1 of the 2 if not cover both games. 7 pts is way too many.

Pistons should have a good shot to win this series.

Dame is out game 1 but cleared to play from what I've seen. Possible Bucks could be the play under a star player being out rule.

I'll pass for now though.

Rockets not a very good 2 seed. Their shooting efficiency  margin is very bad. (-.17%).

A team getting out-shot does not win the title nor do they advance very far in the playoffs. They are a dominate strong rebounding team though but generally  that is not enough.

But I haven't run numbers for Jimmy games. I can't find how to get team stats on basketball reference on a specific date. 

I did it last year with Mavs but forget how to do it.

LA I took a screen shot of LA stats but I didn't see the Jimmy trade untill number of games went by.

We know Clippers should be better with Kawhi back. Depending how they do I may run the numbers for only the games he played in regular season .

He played 37 games from what I saw, I am not sure if he played many games in a row or played those games off and on. That makes a difference. 

I don't think he is the same dominate player he used to be. In those 37 games his player efficiency rating is only like 20.5.

That is a very solid good player but hardly a great player. Depending had he played many games in a row or played off and on likely makes a difference. 

For now too much uncertainty  for me.  I'll wait out and see how things go in first round.

POWER RATING II..................

1 OKC 55.51

2. Cavs 54.95

3. Celtics 54.76

4  Rockets 53.78

5 Grizz 53.24

6. Clippers 52.73

7. Nuggets 52.63

8. Twolves 52.62

9. LA 52.24 ......... Luka games

10  Warriors 51.97 ...... full season

11 Knicks 51.69

12. Pistons 51.63

13  LA 50.41 .........full season

13 Magic 50.16

14  Bucks 50.12

15. Pacers 50.03

16. Heat 49.83

We have 3 teams with the common denominator of past champs.

OKC

Cavs

Celtics

Very unlikely any other team wins the title.

Interesting info on these teams ...............

When a team with the CD's ( common denominators) plays a team without the CD's those teams are 23-9 at winning the series the past 32 series.

If both teams have the CD's the higher rated team wins the series at a 5-6 clip. Does not include the finals.

If neither team has the CD's then the higher rated team has won the series at a 9-4 clip.

Small samples for sure. I'd  need to look more at how much better then opp. Slightly better or far better likely matters.

In the finals when both have the CD's which is quite often the better team if by a certain amount wins at a pretty high rate. So the amount a team is better likely matters.

Nice info 

great to see you back Claw...can you explain which teams qualify for CD and which do not? "When a team with the CD's (common denominators) plays a team without the CD's those teams are 23-9 at winning the series the past 32 series." thank you

3 teams have the CD's . Read post 6.

OKC

Cavs

Celtics

All the other teams do not have the CD's.

OKC is my no.1 ranked team in both PR's.

Which normally would make them my favorite to win the title.

However, OKC is a very young team. Generally young teams don't win the title in the NBA.

They can in the NFL but in the NBA seems more experienced  players win the title which takes some time to gain the experience. 

So this will be interesting  to see if they can do it.

68 wins is incredible. Most teams won 65 games or more have gone on to win the title.

And OKC is off the charts in shooting efficiency margin of 6.11%.

Becoming just the 2cd team to go over 6%. Warriors did it once I think 2017 if I remember  correctly.

But since I include TO'S as part of shooting efficiency the Warriors would still be well above this team in pure shooting efficiency  only.

OKC was a monster at winning the TO battle. 

No.1 in fewest TO's and I think no.1 in forcing TO's with a huge margin like +6 or so. I dont recall seeing any team I can remember  being this good.

OKC also set the record for the best point margin in league history from what I heard .

However, PR I has OKC 10.64 which is more then 2 pts less then their pt margin.

In other words OKC play on the court does not justify a pt margin as large as they ended the season with.

This may be telling us they could be a bit overvalued on the line.

They are not as good as their monster pt margin suggests.

The Grizz look like a much better team then an 8th seed. 6th in PR I and 5th in PR II.

They are 8th in offensive  FG% and 4th in defensive  FG%. Both top 10 that is very good balance for a 8th seed.

And their 51.8% rebounding is 2cd best in the playoffs. 

Wow, how is it possible this team is an 8th seed ?

I didn't follow the regular season much so is anything going on with this team that might be important ?

I did see 2 players are out for the year but not any of the big 3 players. One did have like the 3rd or 4th most minutes played per game but didn't seem to contribute all that much based on his player efficiency  rating.

According to my lines Grizz are the right side in game 1. 13 pts is too many.

Game 1's ...........

Pistons +7 over Knicks - .55 units

Grizz +13 over OKC - .55 units

@theclaw

 Bol 

Sat --- 0-1 ATS, lost .55 units

Son of a gun. Pistons got up like 8 pts and were looking pretty good getting 7 pts. Credit to the Knicks, the did a very good job.

Knicks off a SU & ATS win I'll  back Pistons again game 2.

Not surprised  at all to see both Nuggets and Twolves win. Twolves played a beat-down on the Lakers.

Pressure will be on LA to win game 2 and they likely will.

If we look at both PR's we have a group of 4 teams pretty evenly matched.

Nuggets, LA, Clippers and Twolves. I would not be surprised to see any of these teams win the series.

We possibly add the Warriors to this group of evenly matched teams with Jimmy in the line up.

I think people are over-rating both LA and Clippers.

I think Clippers could be the slightly better team in the group with Kawhi but he is not the same great player he once was.

A 20.5  Player Efficiency Rating pales next to his ratings in his prime of over 25 and 26.

His win shares per 48 minutes, how much he contributes to each win is .141.

When .220 is a great player. He was well over that in his prime. 

Obviously Clippers are better with him but not so much better that they'd  be well above this group of teams.

And LBJ has a 20.5 PER as well, lowest of his career. This is not a great player.

And to make matters worse his defense is lazy and not very good.

Is Luka a defensive wizard ?

I would not be surprised to see LA come back to win series or Twolves win series in 6, maybe 5 .

Claw, I appreciate your weekly insights on the NFL. Definitely helps confirm what I'm thinking sometimes because we think alike.

With that said, NBA is probably the worst sport for the way we think. The obvious stuff wins in the NBA a lot. 

You ever try bases? I'm not a baseball fan or really interested in that grueling baseball season, but it turned out to be probably my best sport somehow. 

I play NBA sparingly, and even less during the playoffs. Dunno how you can cap two teams playing each other 6-7 times in a row back to back. 

Good luck, TC.

TC's Comment #6 looks pretty sharp.  OKC CLE and BOS all won and covered in their series openers.

Thanks ......

Early on in playoffs sometimes I am not aware of all the different angles I have. I need to familiarize myself with them and that's why I don't like to take action too early.

I did miss the boat on those games dog.

A consistent winner over the years has been to back my no. 1 and no. 2 teams in every game 1 of each series.

Rarely would you finish with a losing record.

I just looked up backing teams with shooting  efficiency margin of 5% or better in their very first playoff game.

Mostly 20 pt or better blowouts. Something new I just learned.

They don't do as well in game 2's though if coming off big blowout win. For teams didn't cover game 1 they did in game 2.

These teams are explosive and be difficult to keep them down for long .

Celtics in this spot last season and won 114-94.

MY LINES ..............game 2's

Knicks -4.84 over Pistons

Nuggets -4.8 over Clippers

OKC -10.22 over Grizz

LA -4.59 over Twolves

Pacers --1.93 over Bucks

Pistons off a SU & ATS loss and getting +6.5 plays is on Pistons 

Nuggets go from -2.5 to +1.5 ? Crazy, Clippers over-rated with Kawhi back.

Best to fade this large line adjustments. 

Clippers are better team with Kawhi back no doubt but is he worth 6 pts ? Hell no.

Especially now he is not the same player, he not worth 6 pts in his prime.

And the road team generally gets 1 good chance to win either game 1 or game 2, once they get this opportunity  they better size the moment.

Clippers failed to do this game 1. 

Nuggets are the play.

I'll  watch the line see what happens. Going up or down ?

Pistons +6.5 over Knicks --- 1.1 units

Mostly likely backing Nuggets later depending  on the line.